Abstract
Scenario writing is presented in this paper as a technique which can assist in the evaluation of proposed system operating costs. This technique makes it possible to examine the impacts of alternative trends on operating cost escalation. Two projects proposed for Los Angeles, the Wilshire subway and the Downtown People Mover are used as case studies. The analysis of the data generated from the scenarios illustrates that the problems of operating cost escalation will continue despite incorporation of advances in transit technology. The discussion is presented as follows: First, the application of advanced technology to two recently constructed rail transit systems is reviewed. This subject is presented to demonstrate that large-scale automation does not prevent operating deficits. Second, the three major categories of people mover systems are described. Based on the experience of automated rail transit systems and people mover systems, UMTA has chosen to use the simplest people mover technology for testing in downtown environments. Third, the issue of whether planners can forecast operating cost of high capital cost transit system proposals is analyzed. The two case studies with the scenarios are then presented.