DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLE MARKET PENETRATION

Since HFCVs are not yet in the market, there is not enough personal travel data with HFCVs to accurately estimate potential demand. Yet, for fuel companies, sufficient numbers of HFCVs are required before investment in more stations becomes profitable. Alternatively, for customers, sufficient numbers of stations are required before purchasing and operating HFCVs becomes a realistic alternative to ICEVs. So, the initial balancing between this supply and demand confliction is vital to the fate of HFCVs as a market force. This work investigates the effect of refueling availability on choosing HFCVs by finding saturation densities of refueling stations for these vehicles. Using a subsample of households in the NHTS 2009 dataset, we first use parameters of the utility of choosing Toyota Prius vs. Toyota Corolla. We then argue that the values of these coefficients can be transferred to AFVs in general, and used in a preference model for AFVs vs. ICEVs, provided that we also transfer the coefficients of the appropriate purchase and operating costs. Using these models as base, we express the operating costs of AFV with respect to the density of refueling stations and the mean value of time, which then are included in the logit model as variables. We then employ a dynamic normative model that accommodates both the “bandwagon” effect and the results of the estimation of the random utility model of choice to estimate proportions of AFVs in the market over time. Stabilized market proportions are then used for finding saturation densities of stations.

Then, using these results, a competition model is proposed to forecast supplies for HFCVs based on demands forecasted by the dynamic normative model. Feedback models are used connect results derived from the competition and dynamic normative models.