Modeling the interactions of new price-cost-ownership paradigms with traveler usage patterns and system performance in new shared autonomous mobility systems

Mobility systems are undergoing a major transformation due to emerging autonomous and shared mobility technologies. A primary aspect of such technologies consists of improving the mobility system inefficiencies via a reduction in the number of vehicles needed to fulfill the transportation needs. This would impact the use of vehicles and their expected lifetime. This dissertation is focused on the importance of the increased usage of vehicles and how the system can benefit from an optimization with a vehicle point of view. The improvements come from mainly two aspects of shared mobility – carsharing and ridesharing – which are both implemented in the modeling and optimization framework. An analysis of the current vehicle ownership and trip distributions is presented. A vehicle usage cost function is designed to incorporate the changed relative importance of fixed and usage-based variable costs. It presents a framework that analyzes the interactions between all the elements, including a pricing scheme for benefit-cost analysis and optimizations from a service provider perspective. With shared mobility, ownership paradigms can also change to subscription-based use
of vehicles from fleet service providers, as included implicitly in the interaction framework. Modeling is carried out for idealized networks, as well as a real-world network of a reasonable size from the city of Irvine, CA. The results capture the increased use of shared and/or autonomous vehicles (SAV) and the benefits of optimizing the system with properly updated costs. Results and conclusions are provided on the viability of service provider plans as well as on system benefits in terms of the replacement ratio indicating how many personal vehicles can be removed using autonomous fleets.