Project: ||
Prior Study |
Task 1 |
Task 2 |
Task 3 |
Task 4 |
Task 5 |
Tasks 6-9 |
Deliverables |
CEE225b
The Miasma Beach Transportation Model
Task 6. DEMAND FORECASTING: MODEL CRITIQUE
The primary objective of Tasks 1-5 is to develop and validate a travel forecasting
model for Miasma Beach. The model system utilizes 2010 household travel survey data
to estimate Trip Generation models and to apply Time-of-Day factors. An existing Trip
Distribution model is utilized. The model system is validated using 2010 trip counts
and selected screenlines.
6.1 Model Critique
Provide a critique of the Miasma Beach Transportation Model. The critique should
focus on differences between the Miasma Beach model and state-of-the-practice methods
for each of the model's steps. The critique should identify where improvements could
be made in the model system, and these improvements should be ranked in terms of both
estimated effectiveness and application efficiency. You should consider both existing
model components as well as potential methods and models that are not currently part
of the model system
6.2 Recommendations
Based on your evaluation of the Miasma Beach Transportation Model, prepare and
justify a set of modeling recommendations to the Miasma Beach City Council. Your
recommendation should include the top three model improvements identified, as well as
a brief plan to implement one or more of these improvements as part of Task 8.
Task 7. DEMAND FORECASTING: FEEDBACK ANALYSIS
Develop and apply feedback for the 2010 Miasma Beach model. Both Direct Feedback, as
discussed in class, is applied first. The direct feedback method is not guaranteed to
converge but tends to for the simply Miasma Beach network. The MSA method will compute
a running average of the results from subsequent feedback iterations, and will converge.
It is not necessary to average trip distribution results.
Task 7.1 Feedback: Direct
Apply direct feedback beginning with the results for the 2010 Miasma Beach project.
Complete a minimum of 5 iterations or apply a reasonable convergence criterion.
Each iteration must include:
- results of the base MB model, displayed in tabular and graphical form
- tabulated computations of link volumes and updated link travel times, appending
each new iteration to the TransCAD dataview table
- network plots showing link volumes by iteration and updated travel times
- aggregate statistics illustrating process convergence
- A comparison to the results without feedback
Task 7.2 Feedback: Averaging
Apply feedback with averaging beginning with the results for the 2010 Miasma Beach project.
Complete a minimum of 5 iterations or apply a reasonable convergence criterion.
Each iteration must include:
- results of the base MB model, displayed in tabular and graphical form
- tabulated computations of link volumes, averaged link volumes (via MSA), and updated
link travel times, appending each new iteration to the TransCAD dataview table
- network plots showing link volumes by iteration and updated travel times
- aggregate statistics illustrating process convergence
- A comparison to the results without feedback
Task 8. MODEL ENHANCEMENT OR EXTENSION
Potential projects topics are available,
including recommended model extensions/enhancements for Spring 2018.
Your selection should be reflected in your model critique in Task 6.
Task 9. PREPARE FINAL REPORT AND PRESENTATION
9.1 Final Report
Develop and submit a comprehensive Final Report. Incorporate material from all
project tasks as part of this final document. All standards for report presentation must be met
(see Format Guidelines).
The report should include a clear description of the inputs and outputs of each task (table,
matrices, and maps). Utilize maps and other graphics to better present your results. Your
report is to be submitted to the City of Miasma Beach via the City Transportation Director.
Both a paper copy in a 3-ring binder and an e-copy (doc or pdf) must be submitted.
9.2 Final Presentation
Develop and present a Powerpoint summary of (a) the Task 1-5
Model Development and Validation; (b) Task 6 Model Critique; (c) Task 7 Feedback;
and (d) Task 8 Model Extension/Enhancement. You will have 15 minutes to present and
five minutes for questions. A copy of your slides (ppt or pptx) must be submitted.
Further details will be provided by Week 8.
9.3 Model Methodology Lecture
Develop and submit a Powerpoint lecture of the methods and models
utilized in your model extension/enhancement for Miasma Beach. This presentation is
not about your application results for Miasma Beach; rather, it is about the
theory and practice of the methods and models utilized. These slides could be used
directly in a presentation to a professional organization, conference, or journal,
or presented as a webinar to an audience of professional modelers and planners.
The lecture shoule be for 60 minutes, meaning about 60 slides. Since you will
not be directly giving the presentation, each slide should contain details
and not just "bullets" (it is recommended that you utilize the "notes" option in
Powerpoint so the comments that you would normally make in an oral presentation
are instead included as written comments).
You must submit a e-copy (ppt or pptx) of you lecture slides by 25 May 2018.
|