Abstract
This research uses empirical analysis of travel survey data to quantify how much Californians will change the amount that they drive in response to changes in land use and transport system variables. The study improves upon past research in three key ways. First, a dataset comprising merged information from five California-based household travel surveys was assembled. Second, a novel approach to control for residential self-selection was developed. Third, understanding heterogeneity in effects of variables on vehicle miles of travel (VMT) across two important dimensions – neighborhood type and trip type — was a focus. The effects of some land use and transport system characteristics do depend on neighborhood type, in ways that are intuitive but had not previously been empirically verified. Results of this research are embedded in the VMT Impact spreadsheet tool, which allows users to easily see the implications of this work for any census tract, city, or region in California.