With soaring oil prices and growing concerns for global warming, there
is increasing interest in the environmental performance of
transportation systems. This dissertation contributes to this growing
literature through three independent yet related projects essays that
deal with transportation technology, infrastructure, and policy.
My first essay analyze the increasing interest for hybrid cars by
Californians based on a statewide phone survey conducted in July of 2004
by Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) using discrete choice
models. Results suggest that the possibility for single drivers to use
hybrid vehicles in HOV lanes is more important than short term concerns
for air pollution, support for energy efficiency policies, long term
concerns for global warming, education, and income. This suggests that
programs designed to improve the environmental performance of individual
vehicles need to rely on tangible benefits for drivers; to make a
difference, they cannot rely on environmental beliefs alone.
The second essay is concerned with assessments of Travel Demand
management (TDM) policies, which have been used to deal with congestion,
air pollution, and now global warming. I compare two TDM programs: Rule
2202 (The on-road motor vehicle mitigation options in southern
California) and the Commute Trip Reduction Program (CTR) in Washington
State. My results reveal that after 2002, the impacts of Rule 2202 are
mixed. Commuters’ modal choices are affected by worksite
characteristics but only two (out of six) basic strategies effect the
change in average vehicle ridership (AVR). Moreover, the level of
subsidies appears to play an important role in commuting behavior. In
Washington State, location has an impact on AVR and combinations of
location and employee duties influence the single occupant vehicle
index. Details of the CTR and its relative success suggest that there
is room for improving Rule 2202 to make it friendlier to businesses and
more effective.
Finally, I examine the health impacts of NOx (nitrogen oxides) and PM
(particulate matter) generated by trains moving freight through the
Alameda Corridor to and from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
After estimating baseline emissions for 2005, I examine two scenarios:
in the first one, I assume that all long-haul and switching locomotives
are upgraded to Tier 2 (from Tier 1); in the second scenario, all Tier 2
locomotives operating in the study area are replaced with cleaner, Tier
3 locomotives. I find that mortality from PM exposure accounts for the
largest component of health impacts, with 2005 annual costs from excess
mortality in excess of $40 million. A shift to Tier 2 locomotives would
save approximately half of these costs while the benefits of shifting
from Tier 2 to Tier 3 locomotives would be much smaller. To my
knowledge, this is the first comprehensive assessment of the health
impacts of freight train transportation in a busy freight corridor.
