Khatun, Farzana, PhD; Saphores, Jean-Daniel, PhD.
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine
Bus ridership in many U.S. cities has declined over the past decade, and understanding the causes is vital for improving public transit systems. In Orange County, factors like poor service quality, low connectivity, competition from ride-hailing services, and changing socioeconomic conditions have all been cited as potential contributors. One lesser-explored factor is the implementation of Assembly Bill 60 (AB 60) in 2015, which allowed undocumented residents in California to obtain driver’s licenses.
At ITS-Irvine, our faculty are advancing transportation policy research by identifying how legislation and social trends affect transit behavior. In this study, Dr. Farzana Khatun and Dr. Jean-Daniel Saphores analyzed whether the introduction of AB 60 contributed to declines in OCTA bus ridership. Using route-level panel regression models and ridership data from 2014–2016, they found that local and community routes experienced significant ridership declines—up to 7.7% in Fall 2015–16—after AB 60 was implemented. The findings suggest that expanded access to driver’s licenses may have encouraged a shift away from public transit. To address these trends, the authors recommend that OCTA explore service adjustments, increased frequency, and free or discounted fare programs.
Key Research Findings:
- Gasoline prices also impacted bus boardings.
- After the implementation of AB 60, bus boardings decreased more than before.
- Route frequency did not matter in 2014-2016.
- Rail vehicle revenue hours (VRH) and peak hour frequency had a significant impact on bus boardings on local and community routes.
Stay connected with ITS-Irvine for more insights on mobility innovation. To learn more, read the policy brief or explore the full report below.