Abstract
California, where transportation accounts for over half of ozone precursors and particulate matter emissions, as well as nearly 40 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, has adopted the ambitious goal of reducing petroleum use in transportation by 50 percent by 2030. One of the proposed strategies to achieve this goal is to increase the share of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). Current incentives to foster the adoption of AFVs by households include single-occupant use of High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes and parking privileges. Although popular, the effectiveness of these incentives is still controversial. To shed some light on this question, this paper analyzes data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey using a generalized structural equation model that accounts for residential self-selection, household demographic characteristics, and environmentalism. The results show that, households who live closer to freeways with HOV lanes, work closer to parking lots with AFV privileges, and have pro-environmental views are more likely to own AFVs. However, these households are also likely to drive slightly more than if they had conventional vehicles, which is not surprising since AFVs have a lower variable cost compared to conventional vehicles. On average, a household who lives 1 mile closer to HOV lanes will drive an additional 0.27 mile per month for work or school (0.88 mile if a parking facility with AFV privileges is 1 mile closer to work.) These unintended effects suggest that alternative measures such as pricing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) should be considered if policymakers decide to also reduce VMT.