Abstract
Agencies must maintain equitable access, even in low-demand areas, which can lead to costly, underused bus service. This study evaluates when those segments can be replaced with shared, door-level TNC service without reducing equity. Using a three-stage framework: identifying low-demand segments, testing feasibility with an optimization model, and applying predictive tools, we show where substitution is viable. In Long Beach, TNC substitution reduced operating costs by up to 60% and improved passenger utility by ~50%, and remains appealing even when savings are smaller.
Different demand patterns, route characteristics, and comparable service options (stop-level pickup, individual subsidies, demand-responsive shuttles) were evaluated, showing the flexibility of this approach. Regression models and correlations help agencies determine when substitution is likely to succeed. Pilot programs confirm that equity is preserved when agencies control fares and service rules through clear contracts. Overall, TNC substitution allows agencies to redirect resources to high-demand areas while maintaining access.
