Project Summary
The Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Irvine is completed a two-year study for Caltrans titled “Assessment and Development of Commodity Flow, Logistics, and Other Relevant Goods Movement Data Sources to Facilitate Statewide Freight Modeling.†The findings from this project also further emphasize the growing need for analytical tools for understanding goods movement. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) estimates domestic freight volumes to grow by more than 65 percent, increasing from 13.5 billion tons in 1998 to 22.5 billion tons in 2020. According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the volumes of goods shipped by trucks and railroads are projected to increase by 98 percent and 88 percent, respectively, by 2035. To better support policies related to goods movement and its impacts, many states have started adopting statewide freight forecasting models, including Oregon, Florida, Indiana, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin, among others. This project represents an initial preparation phase addressing conceptual and methodological alternatives is needed prior to the actual model development. In this preparation phase, we will coordinate with the primary model users, Caltrans and ARB, to clearly define the model uses. We will deliberate with the MPO’s in California, and other academic institutions, consultants, and state agencies working with Caltrans and ARB in related areas. We will clearly identify the primary modeling methods and decide on a preferred method with Caltrans. Lastly, we will develop a framework for the preferred method and create a work plan.