Project Summary
Problem Statement: While transit-oriented development (TOD) and other transit-centered initiatives have emerged in recent years as core strategies for attaining the vision of the SB 375, little is known about how our investment in a public transit system can actually modify urban land use patterns, and under what circumstances the (favorable) effects occur, and to what (spatiotemporal) extent. Prior research, although valuable, tends to assume transit lines/stations as a homogeneous facility/amenity without explicit consideration of their history, service quality, and other attributes that could generate a significant difference in land use outcomes. Furthermore, little scholarly attention has been paid to the expansion (or quality improvements) of a transit system that can (re)shape land use patterns consistently over time. In practice, half-mile circles have been used widely in delineating transit corridor areas. What can be achieved beyond the half-mile walking distance radius boundaries has remained unanswered.
Proposal: Building on a recently completed project, “Infill Dynamics in Rail Transit Corridors: Challenges and Prospects for Integrating Transportation and Land Use Planning”, this project will assess the impacts of light rail transit expansion on broader vicinity areas in Southern California. The project aims to better understand the mechanisms between transit characteristics and land (re)development dynamics and the potential land use change which could be associated with Southern California’s regional transportation and sustainability plan which calls for increased density in high-quality transit areas.
Specifically, this research will solidify an understanding of the detailed mechanisms driving urban land use change near transit investments and will extend the ability to translate results from models into policy recommendations by:
1. Analyzing the potential impacts of light rail investments on areas beyond the traditional half-mile station radius and associated evolution of land use patterns and property markets in transit corridors;
2. Examining the influence of policy context variables on land use dynamics in transit corridors, including the influence of planning tools intended to promote near-transit development;
3. Conducting comparative case studies on the planning and development context of major developments in transit corridors to extend quantitative model findings with qualitative insights into the role of planning institutions and developers on near-transit development.
Expected Impact and Benefits: The proposed project will greatly advance the understanding of urban land use change dynamics under the influence of transit system development/expansion. As noted above, little is known about (potential) changes that can take place beyond the half-mile circles. Results will shed light on the effectiveness of transit investment in creating a more sustainable urban/metropolitan spatial structure and therefore inform local, regional, and state agencies. In addition, by analyzing the influence of policy and context variables, this research will provide insight into how local actions and institutional structures can play a significant role in shaping land use and transportation dynamics of urban areas. The research’s emphasis on broader transit vicinities will also help planners think beyond the traditional half-mile circles and refine their strategies for directing growth into high-quality transit areas. This will eventually contribute to a more complete realization of urban development that is environmentally and socio-economically sustainable.
