Abstract
The goal of this study is to provide insights into the expected role of medium-duty electric vehicles (EVs) in urban delivery fleets and to analyze the effectiveness of EV subsidies on EV fleet penetration and tailpipe emissions. To meet this goal, we propose a modeling framework that determines the minimum-cost fleet size and fleet mix (of EVs and conventional vehicles) and vehicle routes for a profit-maximizing delivery company. Second, we conduct extensive analyses using this modeling framework and Southern California network data; we vary the EV driving range, per-mile cost of EVs, demand rate. We find that the optimal fleet mix nearly always includes EVs and conventional vehicles. Moreover, we find that EV subsidies have limited effectiveness with current EV batteries and service regions designed around conventional vehicles. Hence, improving EV battery technology is critical to electrifying urban delivery fleets.