Abstract
This report examines the market share of cleaner technologies and lower carbon intensive fuel use among heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) and off-road equipment (ORE) to better understand how regulatory measures and incentive programs have and can affect the market. It also projects the uptake of technology for low-carbon transportation (LCT) and identifies the technical features that could potentially improve and optimize the energy demands of both HDVs and ORE under various operational conditions. The research team was led by Principal Investigator (PI) Professor Stephen Ritchie of the University of California, Irvine’s (UCI) Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS), in collaboration with Professor Scott Samuelsen from UCI’s Advanced Power and Energy Program. Research partners Dr. Bo Liu from the University of California, Los Angeles, (UCLA), Dr. Kanok Boriboonsomsin and Fuad Un-Noor from University of California Riverside (UCR), and Suman Mitra from the University of Arkansas (UARK). In order to identify barriers to uptake of LCT, the research team conducted an analysis of existing market survey and real-world operation data of heavy-duty fleets and ORE participating in incentive programs. More incentive programs exist for HDVs; thus, lessons learned were extrapolated to OREs and that sector’s unique challenges to increasing the market share of clean technology were identified. The project also examined incentive programs as a whole and quantified socioeconomic, environmental, and health impacts as a function of incentive dollars spent on clean technology adoption. Using the market data, as well as inputs from other research projects, this project delivered a tool that forecasts low-carbon transportation technology market penetration between 2020 and 2050 that considers incremental cost, projected availability of low-carbon fuel sources, estimated reduction of criteria pollutants, and GHG emissions. Finally, this project estimated the year in which low-carbon transportation technology solutions reach cost parity or market acceptance relative to conventional technologies without incentive program supports.
