Abstract
In this study, a comprehensive framework for forecasting a time-dependent future traffic pattern is introduced. In transportation planning, the future travel demand is calculated based on the change of socio-economic variables at a target year. In the forecasting process, however, the physical capacity of road network does not be considered explicitly, so a traffic simulation model might fail to load the forecasted OD demand table. Therefore, forecasting a dynamic future traffic pattern is a very difficult task with existing methods and models. In order to overcome the obstacle, the authors develop a comprehensive traffic simulator in which the supply side and the demand side of transportation system are modeled within a unified framework. The developed model relies on an activity-based approach and the household interactions among household members are also considered. A numerical example shows the developed model can find an equilibrium point between the dynamic travel demand and network supply.