Abstract
This paper explores the connection between tenant riskiness, commercial lease length, and the term structure of lease contracts. Theory shows that the possibility of default on a long-term lease generates a risk/lease-length connection. The empirical work uses a large CompStak lease data set combined with tenant characteristics (including risk) from Dun & Bradstreet (D&B). Regressions show that lease length is inversely related to the D&B risk measures, as predicted, and that risky tenants pay a higher rent premium for long-term contracts than low-risk tenants. The presence of such tenants thus raises the slope of the term structure of commercial rents. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.04959 .