Project Summary
Recent federal rollbacks pose an immediate and serious threat to California's zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) transition. Without financial and regulatory support, California's light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector risks losing momentum toward its 100 percent ZEV future, as reaffirmed in Executive Order N-27-25 This creates an urgent knowledge gap: while there is a growing body of literature on ZEV adoption in California, relatively little is known about how the state can effectively fill the gap left by federal rollbacks. Moreover, there is limited research on how California can simultaneously address climate and environmental concerns while ensuring affordability, so that the transition to clean transportation remains beneficial for all segments of the state's population and for all communities. The challenge is compounded by recent supply-side dynamics that may fundamentally alter the effectiveness of traditional demand-side policies. This project will use cutting-edge modeling to identify the specific policies that California can adopt to maintain momentum to reach its ZEV goals despite federal rollbacks and supply-side constraints. The research will foreground three principal policy domains: monetary incentives (e.g., rebates, tax credits, price supports), non-monetary incentives (e.g., HOV lane use, parking preferences), and charging infrastructure deployment policies that support transportation electrification statewide. Analytical tools are needed to examine how economic trends, sociodemographic changes, and policies influence vehicle ownership and fleet turnover in California of both new and used EVs. When updated with current data sources on market conditions, including vehicle supply and charging infrastructure availability, such tools can help maximize the impact of limited state funds in achieving state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the light duty vehicle sector while ensuring affordable and equitable transportation options for all.