working paper

Things Won't Get a Lot Worse: The Future of U.S. Traffic Congestion

Publication Date

June 1, 1991

Author(s)

Working Paper

UCI-ITS-WP-90-2

Abstract

Our current alarm about traffic congestion stems in large part from perception of trends: thirty years ago traffic flowed smoothly; today it crawls. If this trend continues, congestion will become gridlock. These perceptions lead to statements such as: “There is no point to building highways, new lanes fill up as soon as they are opened.”It present evidence to show that such trend-based thinking is wrong because it ignores structural shifts in the demographics of auto ownership and use. At this time, auto ownership is effectively saturated: we are very close to the point where all the potential drivers have auto access. The ratio of autos per driver can continue to grow, but since it is only possible to drive one vehicle at a time, the growth rate of auto-use must decline to about the rate of population growth — a rate which is 2.9 times lower than the rate we have experienced in the period since 1960.Thus, fatalistic prophesies about future gridlock have overstated the potential growth of demand for auto travel. That growth has already declined and it should level off to a rate which is only one-third as large as we are used to. This is a manageable rate, planning is possible. And, specifically, it is appropriate to think about building new roads to solve our deficiency of highway capacity.

Suggested Citation
Charles Lave (1991) Things Won't Get a Lot Worse: The Future of U.S. Traffic Congestion. Working Paper UCI-ITS-WP-90-2. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/67c7d41k.

published journal article

Appreciation to Robert Herman

Transportation Science

Publication Date

January 1, 1974

Author(s)

Leslie C. Edie, Denos C. Gazis, Walter Helly, Richard Rothery, Ernst G. Frankel, Alfred Blumstein, John D.C. Little, John L. Schlaefli, Albert Brown, Thomas Golob
Suggested Citation
Leslie C. Edie, Denos C. Gazis, Walter Helly, Richard Rothery, Ernst G. Frankel, Alfred Blumstein, John D.C. Little, John L. Schlaefli, Albert Brown and Thomas Golob (1974) “Appreciation to Robert Herman”, Transportation Science, 8(1), pp. 1–1. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25767719.

conference paper

Paramics simulation of periodic oscillations caused by network geometry

TRAFFIC FLOW THEORY 2005

Publication Date

January 1, 2005

Author(s)

Abstract

Traffic oscillations such as stop-and-go waves in a traffic system can occur for a variety of reasons, such as instabilities. This paper describes a study of a type of periodic oscillations caused by network geometry with a microscopic simulation model, Paramics. With careful tuning in Paramics, periodic oscillations in which traffic states change periodically between a diverging junction and a merging junction are successfully simulated. The formation process is discussed in detail. The study suggests that, given an appropriate network structure and traffic conditions, the local oscillations caused by randomness in car-following and lane-changing models in Paramics can be maintained and can become periodic and global. Finally, the consistencies between a macroscopic kinematic wave model and Paramics are discussed, and future research topics and the implications of the findings of the study are presented.

Suggested Citation
WL Jin and Y Zhang (2005) “Paramics simulation of periodic oscillations caused by network geometry”, in TRAFFIC FLOW THEORY 2005. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD NATL RESEARCH COUNCIL, pp. 188–196.

published journal article

Association between particulate air pollution and hypertensive disorders in pregnancy: A retrospective cohort study

PLOS Medicine

Publication Date

April 26, 2024

Author(s)

Yi Sun, Rashmi Bhuyan, Anqi Jiao, Chantal C. Avila, Vicki Y. Chiu, Jeff M. Slezak, David A. Sacks, John Molitor, Tarik Benmarhnia, Jiu-Chiuan Chen, Darios Getahun, Jun Wu

Abstract

Background Epidemiological findings regarding the association of particulate matter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) exposure with hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HDP) are inconsistent; evidence for HDP risk related to PM2.5 components, mixture effects, and windows of susceptibility is limited. We aimed to investigate the relationships between HDP and exposure to PM2.5 during pregnancy. Methods and findings A large retrospective cohort study was conducted among mothers with singleton pregnancies in Kaiser Permanente Southern California from 2008 to 2017. HDP were defined by International Classification of Diseases-9/10 (ICD-9/10) diagnostic codes and were classified into 2 subcategories based on the severity of HDP: gestational hypertension (GH) and preeclampsia and eclampsia (PE-E). Monthly averages of PM2.5 total mass and its constituents (i.e., sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic matter, and black carbon) were estimated using outputs from a fine-resolution geoscience-derived model. Multilevel Cox proportional hazard models were used to fit single-pollutant models; quantile g-computation approach was applied to estimate the joint effect of PM2.5 constituents. The distributed lag model was applied to estimate the association between monthly PM2.5 exposure and HDP risk. This study included 386,361 participants (30.3 ± 6.1 years) with 4.8% (17,977/373,905) GH and 5.0% (19,381/386,361) PE-E cases, respectively. In single-pollutant models, we observed increased relative risks for PE-E associated with exposures to PM2.5 total mass [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per interquartile range: 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.04, 1.10] p < 0.001], black carbon [HR = 1.12 (95% CI [1.08, 1.16] p < 0.001)] and organic matter [HR = 1.06 (95% CI [1.03, 1.09] p < 0.001)], but not for GH. The population attributable fraction for PE-E corresponding to the standards of the US Environmental Protection Agency (9 μg/m3) was 6.37%. In multi-pollutant models, the PM2.5 mixture was associated with an increased relative risk of PE-E ([HR = 1.05 (95% CI [1.03, 1.07] p < 0.001)], simultaneous increase in PM2.5 constituents of interest by a quartile) and PM2.5 black carbon gave the greatest contribution of the overall mixture effects (71%) among all individual constituents. The susceptible window is the late first trimester and second trimester. Furthermore, the risks of PE-E associated with PM2.5 exposure were significantly higher among Hispanic and African American mothers and mothers who live in low- to middle-income neighborhoods (p < 0.05 for Cochran’s Q test). Study limitations include potential exposure misclassification solely based on residential outdoor air pollution, misclassification of disease status defined by ICD codes, the date of diagnosis not reflecting the actual time of onset, and lack of information on potential covariates and unmeasured factors for HDP. Conclusions Our findings add to the literature on associations between air pollution exposure and HDP. To our knowledge, this is the first study reporting that specific air pollution components, mixture effects, and susceptible windows of PM2.5 may affect GH and PE-E differently.

Suggested Citation
Yi Sun, Rashmi Bhuyan, Anqi Jiao, Chantal C. Avila, Vicki Y. Chiu, Jeff M. Slezak, David A. Sacks, John Molitor, Tarik Benmarhnia, Jiu-Chiuan Chen, Darios Getahun and Jun Wu (2024) “Association between particulate air pollution and hypertensive disorders in pregnancy: A retrospective cohort study”, PLOS Medicine, 21(4), p. e1004395. Available at: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004395.

working paper

Rational Response to Irrational Attitudes: The Level of the Gasoline Tax in the United States

Publication Date

July 1, 1998

Author(s)

Thomas L. Brunell, Amihai Glazer

Working Paper

UCI-ITS-WP-98-4

Areas of Expertise

Abstract

Retailers often price items at $9.99 rather than $10.00. They may do so to fool consumers into viewing the price as closer to $9.00 than to $10.00, or to signal consumers that the product is on sale (e.g., Stiving and Winer, 1997). Similarly, workers highly desire a six-figure income-a salary of $100,000 sounds much more impressive than a salary of $99,999. This paper explores related behavior by government. Suppose legislators attempt to reduce the salience of increases in the gasoline tax by avoiding moving gasoline taxes into double digits, and suppose that once taxes are moved beyond the double-digit threshold, legislators might as well raise them a little more than just the threshold increment to compensate for the increased visibility they have incurred. Two patterns might result: relatively few states imposing a tax of exactly 10 cents, and a more general avoidance of double-digit taxes. The data confirm this pattern. Such attention to nominal values can lead to peculiarities. Consider the following thought experiment. A state is observed to impose a tax of 8 cents on a gallon of gasoline. But were it forced to specify the tax as so many cents per quart, it would impose a tax not of 2 cents per quart, but of 3 cents per quart. Were such behavior common, then to explain the level of taxes it would be necessary to consider not only the usual economic and political explanations, but also the nominal value of taxes. In the following we present two different ways of testing for the importance of nominal values. Our focus is on gasoline taxes in the different states in the United States. Such taxes are both substantively important, and well suited for study since much data are available on them.

Suggested Citation
Thomas L. Brunell and Amihai Glazer (1998) Rational Response to Irrational Attitudes: The Level of the Gasoline Tax in the United States. Working Paper UCI-ITS-WP-98-4. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5ts7t9hv.

working paper

Transition or Transformation? Emerging Freight Transportation Intermediaries

Publication Date

May 1, 2001

Abstract

During the past two years, traditional freight transportation intermediaries, which include freight forwarders, brokers and third party logistics providers have been joined by a large number of intermediaries. The main drivers of the development of these new companies are advances in information and communications technologies, the development of web-based or on-line freight transportation marketplaces and the emergence worldwide of business-to-business (B2B) electronic marketplaces and business-to-consumer (B2C) e-tailers. Advances in Information Technologies make possible many new operational paradigms and potentially enable the efficient integration of supply chains. In this paper we examine these new companies, discuss the potential benefits and costs of shifting from traditional 3PL’s to these on-line service providers and illustrate the extent to which changes in the industries appear to be more of a transition than a large scale transformation.

published journal article

Navigating inclusion and legitimacy in campus-community environmental partnerships to advance urban social-ecological resilience

Environmental Education Research

Publication Date

March 3, 2021

Author(s)

Bemmy Jennifer Maharramli, Doug Houston

Abstract

Campus-community partnerships can play a vital role in environmental education by providing universities opportunities to engage diverse communities, but challenges often emerge when research centers leverage their legitimacy as a purveyor of expertise while embracing inclusive engagement practices. While previous campus-community partnership studies have treated inclusion and legitimacy separately, we developed the Legitimacy-Inclusion Engagement Gradient (LIEG) framework, based on a year of participant observations of meetings and workshops of a university urban ecology center and 38 interviews with center members and partners, to investigate the opportunities and tensions that emerge when a center utilizes more inclusive engagement narratives. We observed universities are more adept at enacting legitimacy and that inclusive partnership practices vary substantially. We provide insights into how inclusion and legitimacy can be navigated to advance urban social-ecological resilience. Findings have implications for universities seeking to build campus-community partnership during a pandemic-induced economic downturn and anti-racist social movements.

Suggested Citation
Bemmy Jennifer Maharramli and Douglas Houston (2021) “Navigating inclusion and legitimacy in campus-community environmental partnerships to advance urban social-ecological resilience”, Environmental Education Research, 27(7), pp. 955–969. Available at: 10.1080/13504622.2021.1897528.

working paper

A California Statewide Exploratory Analysis Correlating Land Use Density, Infrastructure Supply and Travel Behavior

Publication Date

October 1, 2008

Author(s)

Thomas Golob, Konstadinos Goulias

Abstract

In this paper land use densities by type of employment and infrastructure supply are used together with social and demographic characteristics to explain non-motorized travel, transit use, and solo driving in California. The land use database, the highway network database, and the travel survey used for the analysis here covers the entire state of Califonia. Land use and infrastructure have a significant, substantial, and very different role for each behavior indicator used here. They alternate in significance and importance depending on the specific behavior analyzed. We also performed experiments to identify the appropriate geographical aggregation by comparing US Census tract vs US Census block group based land use densities and infrastructure densities. Regression models gave us mixed results leading us to suggest the use of a combination between the two geographies. Next steps are also outlined in the paper.

working paper

The Household Activity Pattern: General Formulation and Solution

Publication Date

May 1, 1995

Associated Project

Author(s)

Working Paper

UCI-ITS-WP-95-24, UCI-ITS-AS-WP-95-1, UCTC 445

Areas of Expertise

Abstract

The household activity pattern problem of analyzing/predicting the optimal path of household members through time and space as they complete a prescribed agenda of out-of-home activities is posed as a variant of the pickup and delivery problem with time windows. The most general case of the model includes provision for vehicle transfer, selective activity participation, and ridesharing options. A series of examples are solved using generic algorithms. The model is purported to remove existing barriers to the operationalization of activity-based approaches in travel behavior analysis.

Suggested Citation
Will Recker (1995) The Household Activity Pattern: General Formulation and Solution. Working Paper UCI-ITS-WP-95-24, UCI-ITS-AS-WP-95-1, UCTC 445. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7d1013wq.