published journal article

Stable dynamic pricing scheme independent of lane-choice models for high-occupancy-toll lanes

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological

Abstract

A stable dynamic pricing scheme is essential to guarantee the desired performance of high-occupancy-toll (HOT) lanes, where single-occupancy vehicles (SOVs) can pay a price to use the HOT lanes. But existing methods apply to either only one type of lane-choice models with unknown parameters or different types of lane-choice models but with known parameters. In this study we present a new dynamic pricing scheme that is stable and applies to different types of lane-choice models with unknown parameters. There are two operational objectives for operating HOT lanes: (i) to maintain the free-flow condition to guarantee the travel time reliability; and (ii) to maximize the HOT lanes’ throughput to minimize the system’s total delay. The traffic dynamics on both HOT and general purpose (GP) lanes are described by point queue models, where the queueing times are determined by the demands and capacities. We consider three types of lane-choice models: the multinomial logit model when SOVs share the same value of time, the vehicle-based user equilibrium model when SOVs’ values of time are heterogeneous and follow a distribution, and a general lane-choice model. We demonstrate that the second objective is approximately equivalent to the social welfare optimization principle for the logit model. Observing that the dynamic price and the excess queueing time on the GP lanes are linearly correlated in all the lane-choice models, we propose a feedback control method to determine the dynamic prices based on two integral controllers. We further present a method to estimate the parameters of a lane-choice model once its type is known. Analytically we prove that the equilibrium state of the closed-loop system with constant demand patterns is ideal, since the two objectives are achieved in it, and that it is asymptotically stable. With numerical examples we verify the effectiveness of the solution method.

Suggested Citation
Wen-Long Jin, Xuting Wang and Yingyan Lou (2020) “Stable dynamic pricing scheme independent of lane-choice models for high-occupancy-toll lanes”, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 140, pp. 64–78. Available at: 10.1016/j.trb.2020.07.008.

working paper

Freight Transportation Contracting Under Uncertainty

Working Paper

UCI-ITS-WP-08-2

Areas of Expertise

Abstract

Uncertainties in transportation capacity and costs pose a significant challenge for both shippers and carriers in the trucking industry. One way to hedge these uncertainties is to use concepts from the theory of Real Options to craft derivative contracts, which we call truckload options in this paper. In its simplest form, a truckload call (put) option gives its holder the right to buy (sell) truckload services on a specific route, at a predetermined price on a predetermined date. The holder decides if a truckload option should be exercised depending on information available when the option expires. Truckload options are not yet available, however, so the purpose of this paper is to develop a truckload options pricing model and to show the usefulness of truckload options to both shippers and carriers. Since the price of a truckload option depends on the spot price of a truckload, we first model the dynamics of spot rates using a common stochastic process. Unlike financial markets where high frequency data are available, spot prices for trucking services are not public and we can only observe some monthly statistics. This complicates slightly the estimation of necessary parameters, which we obtain via two independent methods (variogram analysis and maximum likelihood), before developing a truckload options pricing formula. A numerical example based on real data shows that truckload options would be quite valuable to the trucking industry.

Suggested Citation
Mei-Ting Tsai, Jean-Daniel Saphores and Amelia Regan (2008) Freight Transportation Contracting Under Uncertainty. Working Paper UCI-ITS-WP-08-2. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2pn0h83w.

published journal article

Encoder–Decoder Full Residual Deep Networks for Robust Regression and Spatiotemporal Estimation

IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems

Publication Date

September 1, 2021

Author(s)

Lianfa Li, Ying Fang, Jun Wu, Jian Wang, Yong Ge

Abstract

Although increasing hidden layers can improve the ability of a neural network in modeling complex nonlinear relationships, deep layers may result in degradation of accuracy due to the problem of vanishing gradient. Accuracy degradation limits the applications of deep neural networks to predict continuous variables with a small sample size and/or weak or little invariance to translations. Inspired by residual convolutional neural network in computer vision, we developed an encoder–decoder full residual deep network to robustly regress and predict complex spatiotemporal variables. We embedded full shortcuts from each encoding layer to its corresponding decoding layer in a systematic encoder–decoder architecture for efficient residual mapping and error signal propagation. We demonstrated, theoretically and experimentally, that the proposed network structure with full residual connections can successfully boost the backpropagation of signals and improve learning outcomes. This novel method has been extensively evaluated and compared with four commonly used methods (i.e., plain neural network, cascaded residual autoencoder, generalized additive model, and XGBoost) across different testing cases for continuous variable predictions. For model evaluation, we focused on spatiotemporal imputation of satellite aerosol optical depth with massive nonrandomness missingness and spatiotemporal estimation of atmospheric fine particulate matter łeq 2.5 mu textm (PM2.5). Compared with the other approaches, our method achieved the state-of-the-art accuracy, had less bias in predicting extreme values, and generated more realistic spatial surfaces. This encoder–decoder full residual deep network can be an efficient and powerful tool in a variety of applications that involve complex nonlinear relationships of continuous variables, varying sample sizes, and spatiotemporal data with weak or little invariance to translation.

Suggested Citation
Lianfa Li, Ying Fang, Jun Wu, Jinfeng Wang and Yong Ge (2021) “Encoder–Decoder Full Residual Deep Networks for Robust Regression and Spatiotemporal Estimation”, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems, 32(9), pp. 4217–4230. Available at: 10.1109/TNNLS.2020.3017200.

published journal article

Abstract C050: Association between outdoor air pollution and breast cancer survival: The Multiethnic Cohort Study

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention

Publication Date

June 1, 2020

Author(s)

Iona Cheng, Johnny Yang, Chiuchen Tseng, Jun Wu, Shannon M Conroy, Salma Shariff-Marco, Scarlett Lin Gomez, Alice Whittemore, Daniel O Stram, Loic Le Marchand, Lynne R Wilkens, Beate Ritz, Anna H Wu

Abstract

Background: There are now 3.1 million breast cancer (BC) survivors with 4.5 million survivors projected by 2030. This high and growing burden speaks to the need of identifying modifiable factors that influence BC survival. Particulate matter (PM) air pollutants have been associated with increased mortality for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and several cancers. However, few studies have examined the impact of air pollution on mortality among BC cases. Within the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC), we examined the association between outdoor air pollution and mortality among African American (AA), Latino (LA), Japanese American (JA), and White (WH) women diagnosed with BC. Methods: Kriging interpolation of air pollution data from air monitoring stations was used to estimate PM2.5, PM10, and nitrogen oxides (NOx, NO2) exposures for 3,089 BC cases in the MEC, residing largely in Los Angeles County, linked to residential histories from date of diagnosis to date of death or 12/31/2013. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between time-varying air pollutants and mortality, accounting for age at diagnosis, race/ethnicity, marital status, chemotherapy, hormone therapy, radiation, surgery, stage, grade, hormone receptor status, tumor size, body mass index, smoking, alcohol, age at first birth, diabetes, CVD, and neighborhood socioeconomic status. All-cause, BC, CVD, non-BC/non-CVD mortality outcomes were evaluated. Stratified analyses were conducted by race/ethnicity, hormone receptor status, and stage. Results: Among the 3,089 BC cases, there were 1,125 all-cause deaths (474 BC, 272 CVD, and 379 non-BC/non-CVD) with an average of 8.1 years of follow-up. PM2.5 (per 10μg/m3), PM10 (per 10μg/m3), NOx (per 50 ppb), and NO2 (per 20 ppb) were associated with risk of all-cause (hazard ratios (HRs) range=1.25-1.72; p’s<0.004) and CVD mortality (HR range=1.62-3.93; p’s<0.0005). For AA cases, PM2.5, PM10, and NOx were associated with risk of CVD mortality (HR range=1.69-3.81; p’s<0.04). For WH cases, PM2.5, PM10, and NOx were associated with risk of all-cause mortality (HR range=1.48-3.06; p’s<0.02). Risk patterns were similar for LA and JA cases although associations did not reach statistical significance. For hormone receptor positive BC, PM2.5 and NOx were associated with risk of all-cause and CVD mortality (HR range=1.59-2.92, p’s<0.006). For hormone receptor negative BC, NOx was associated with risk of CVD mortality (p<0.01). For localized BC, PM2.5 and NOx were associated with risk of all-cause, CVD, and non-BC/non-CVD mortality (p’s<0.04). For advanced BC, PM2.5 and NOx were associated with CVD mortality (p’s<0.005). Conclusion: These findings provide strong evidence that air pollution is associated with overall and CVD mortality among BC cases, although no effect was found on risk of death due to BC. Moreover, it is essential to maintain stringent clean air laws. Future confirmatory studies and better understanding of the mechanisms of action are needed.Citation Format: Iona Cheng, Juan Yang, Chiuchen Tseng, Jun Wu, Shannon M Conroy, Salma Shariff-Marco, Scarlett Lin Gomez, Alice Whittemore, Daniel O Stram, Loic Le Marchand, Lynne R Wilkens, Beate Ritz, Anna H Wu. Association between outdoor air pollution and breast cancer survival: The Multiethnic Cohort Study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Twelfth AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2019 Sep 20-23; San Francisco, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2020;29(6 Suppl_2):Abstract nr C050.

Suggested Citation
Iona Cheng, Juan Yang, Chiuchen Tseng, Jun Wu, Shannon M Conroy, Salma Shariff-Marco, Scarlett Lin Gomez, Alice Whittemore, Daniel O Stram, Loic Le Marchand, Lynne R Wilkens, Beate Ritz and Anna H Wu (2020) “Abstract C050: Association between outdoor air pollution and breast cancer survival: The Multiethnic Cohort Study”, Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, 29(6_Supplement_2), p. C050. Available at: 10.1158/1538-7755.DISP19-C050.

published journal article

Surrogate-based optimization for multi-objective toll design problems

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

Publication Date

July 1, 2020

Abstract

The toll design problem (TDP) provides a quantitative approach to the design of road pricing schemes. Its practical use, however, can be computationally challenging if the formulated TDP requires time-consuming computer models to evaluate candidate designs, especially if such designs must account for multiple objectives. For TDPs to be of practical relevance to the real-world planning of sustainable transportation networks, efficient TDP solution heuristics must be developed. To this end, two surrogate-based solution heuristics for multi-objective TDPs are proposed in this paper. Surrogate-based optimization uses simple approximations to computationally expensive models in order to accelerate the discovery of good solutions. The general search strategy of the proposed heuristics is as follows. In each iteration of the heuristics, a pool of candidate pricing schemes with unique sets of tolling locations and associated tolling levels is generated. From this pool of designs, the heuristics use the surrogate models to screen for solutions that are expected to be nondominated and that meet a specified selection criterion. Then, these promising designs are evaluated by the computationally expensive models, and the outputs obtained from these evaluations are used to update the surrogate models. Both heuristics repeat this general process until a maximum number of iterations are completed, at which point the best TDP solutions are returned. In addition to the solution heuristics, this paper presents a transportation network paradox that highlights how transportation network interventions intended to reduce traffic emissions could have unintended effects on a population’s exposure to pollutants. The paradox also is used to illustrate the practical complexity of accounting for environmental inequality objectives, as well as the relevance of multi-objective analysis approaches to transportation planning. Formulations of multi-objective TDPs that consider both travel and pollutant exposure-related objectives are also presented, including the objectives of reducing human intake of vehicle-generated air pollutants and of minimizing environmental inequality. The Sioux Falls and Chicago Sketch networks were used in tests that examined the relative performance of the heuristics, as well as the characteristics of pricing configurations obtained under different budget constraints. Among other results, the tests show that a pricing configuration could decrease total pollutant intake and environmental inequality, while at the same time producing an increase in pollutant concentrations in a significant number of pollutant receptor points.

Suggested Citation
Daniel Rodriguez-Roman and Stephen G. Ritchie (2020) “Surrogate-based optimization for multi-objective toll design problems”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 137, pp. 485–503. Available at: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.11.014.

published journal article

Compound Post‐Fire Flood Hazards Considering Infrastructure Sedimentation

Earth's Future

Publication Date

August 1, 2022

Author(s)

Ariane Jong‐Levinger, Tirtha Banerjee, Doug Houston, Brett F. Sanders

Abstract

Abstract Flood and debris hazards are heightened following wildfires, but are challenging to quantify due to interdependence between fire frequency and severity, runoff and sediment fluxes during storms, and sedimentation that reduces infrastructure capacity. Herein we present a stochastic simulation framework to estimate compound flood and debris hazards from sequences of wildfires and rainstorms and the accumulation of sediment within flood infrastructure. Application of the framework to a hypothetical watershed representative of southern California shows that the present‐day compound hazard may be up to 6 times greater than the marginal hazard posed by peak flows in the absence of wildfire, and that future compound hazards could be up to 11 times greater than the marginal hazard based on future increases in wildfire frequency. Numerous sensitivities are investigated, including infrastructure design and maintenance, which are shown to be crucial for moderating future increases in post‐fire flood hazards. , Plain Language Summary More frequent and intense wildfires lead to increased risks of flooding and debris hazards following rainstorms. However, existing models for estimating hazards to communities do not account for the filling of protective flood infrastructure with sediment, which reduces capacity. We present an original model for estimating post‐fire flood and debris hazards that captures the interconnected influences of wildfire, rainstorms, and reduced infrastructure capacity from sedimentation. The modeling approach can simulate present and future hazards to aid both short‐term and long‐term risk management efforts. Simulations show that present‐day hazards are up to six times greater based on the interaction of processes compared to flood hazards in the absence of fires. Based on future increases in wildfire frequency, future flood hazards could be up to 11 times greater. Simulations also show that hazards can be reduced with more intensive cleaning and maintenance. , Key Points Post‐fire flooding represents a compound hazard based on interdependence between fire, runoff, and infrastructure sedimentation A new modeling framework is formulated and applied to simulate compound post‐fire flood hazards using stochastic inputs Compound post‐fire flood hazards can be up to an order of magnitude greater than flood hazards in the absence of fire

Suggested Citation
Ariane Jong‐Levinger, Tirtha Banerjee, Douglas Houston and Brett F. Sanders (2022) “Compound Post‐Fire Flood Hazards Considering Infrastructure Sedimentation”, Earth's Future, 10(8), pp. e2022EF002670. Available at: 10.1029/2022EF002670.

conference paper

Analyzing Non-Work Trip Generation of Telecommuters and Commuters

Transportation Research Board 103rd Annual Meeting

Publication Date

January 1, 2024

Author(s)

Suggested Citation
Rezwana Rafiq (2024) “Analyzing Non-Work Trip Generation of Telecommuters and Commuters”. Transportation Research Board 103rd Annual Meeting.

Phd Dissertation

Electoral systems and regional cooperation: Politics and economics in metropolitan planning organizations

Publication Date

January 1, 2009

Author(s)

Abstract

This dissertation studies an important type of regional organizations called Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs). The primary function of these organizations is the programming, funding, and construction for the bulk of surface transportation projects in the United States. Since the introduction of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) in 1991, they are the primary conduit for billions of federal funds allocated for transportation. As a result, these largely autonomous organizations have an inordinate amount of influence on communities and the lives of the people they represent. However, due to their low salience with the public, and because their activities are wrapped up in complexity, they have largely gone unnoticed by the vast majority of the public. This dissertation models this important class of regional organization by the use of indices and parameters that are commonly used in the study of electoral systems to test the propensity of the MPOs to cooperation on a regional basis. It answers the question by first modeling the inputs, namely the electoral make up of the governing boards, and then by modeling the outputs in terms of the type of transportation projects, whether they solve a regional or a local transportation problem. This study takes a random sample of fifty MPOs and analyzes their most recent Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). These documents are published every three years and must list the funding commitments (either federal, state, or local) for each project and, in addition, they are subject to real fiscal constraints that necessitate in real tradeoffs between projects. This dissertation finds that most MPOs have historically high levels of disproportionality between seats and populations of constituting jurisdictions, and without much pressure or impetus for institutional change, this inhibits their ability to take a regional view. The high levels of disproportionality are primarily a result of a lack of regional seats and vastly varying sizes of the jurisdictions (usually cities and towns). The main finding is that the preference structures of the representatives (whether parochial or regional) predict whether projects have a local or regional focus. In summary, the MPOs ability to cooperate on a regional basis is hindered by their unbalanced governing boards which favor the one-territory one-vote notion of equality over the one-person one-vote criteria of equality.

Suggested Citation
John Leonard Ensch (2009) Electoral systems and regional cooperation: Politics and economics in metropolitan planning organizations. Ph.D.. University of California, Irvine. Available at: https://uci.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/permalink/01CDL_IRV_INST/1gpb62p/alma991035093224604701 (Accessed: October 14, 2023).

working paper

Land Use Influences on Trip Chaining in Portland, Oregon

Publication Date

September 5, 2006

Working Paper

UCI-ITS-WP-06-3

Areas of Expertise

Abstract

This paper examines the nature of land use based substitution effects on travel modes, identified by Greenwald, examining the direct impact of land uses inducing trip-making behaviors. These impacts are analyzed in the context of trip chaining, defined here as consolidating two or more non-home activities in a single departure from home. The findings suggest rather than strictly promoting one type of transportation over another, the regional impact of localized urban design practices is to consolidate trip making behavior closer to the home. As such, urban design “carrots” must be complemented with policy “sticks” in order to promote true exchanges of travel modes.

Suggested Citation
Michael J. Greenwald and Michael G. McNally (2006) Land Use Influences on Trip Chaining in Portland, Oregon. Working Paper UCI-ITS-WP-06-3. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/91x3f962.