journal article preprint

Is the Journey to Work Explained by Urban Structure?

Publication Date

December 31, 1992

Author(s)

Gen Giuliano, Kenneth Small

Abstract

Basic to several key issues in current urban economic theory and public policy is a presumption that local imbalances between employment and residential sites strongly influence people’s commuting patterns. We examine this presumption by finding the commuting pattern for the Los Angeles region in 1980 which would minimise average commuting time or distance, given the actual spatial distributions of job and housing locations. We find that the amount of commuting required by these distributions is far less than actual commuting, and that variations in required commuting across job locations only weakly explain variations in actual commuting. We conclude that other factors must be more important to location decisions than commuting cost, and that policies aimed at changing the jobs-housing balance will have only a minor effect on commuting.

MS Thesis

The value of access to highways and light rail transit: Evidence for industrial and office firms

Abstract

This dissertation examines the relationship between transportation access and industrial and office property rents. The primary purpose of this research is to evaluate two sparsely studied topics in the transportation-land use literature: the impacts of light rail transit on property values, and the effect of transportation facilities on non-residential land uses. Multivariate regression analysis is used on longitudinal data for approximately five hundred and twenty office properties and five hundred industrial properties collected from the San Diego metropolitan region over the period from 1986 to 1995. Asking rents ($/square foot/month) is the dependent variable. Straight-line distance of each property to the nearest freeway on/off ramp, the nearest light rail station, and to the San Diego central business district provide measures of access. Other independent variables include building and neighborhood characteristics. The findings show that access to freeways is consistently significant in predicting office rents. This result indicates that freeways are important in shaping office property values, and by extension office land use patterns. Light rail transit did not have a significant effect on office rents. Access to the CBD was only significant for downtown office properties. The CBD variable in this case may be a proxy for the effect of localization economies. None of the measures of access was significant for industrial properties. This research underscores the importance of refining measures of access in order to capture and better understand the transportation-land use relationship. In particular, if the distance of an industrial firm to freeways, light rail transit, and the CBD is not important, then what kinds of access do matter? This research also has important implications for planning light rail transit systems. There is strong evidence that light rail systems do not provide enough travel cost savings to increase non-residential property values. This finding should be taken seriously in planning alignments for future light rail systems. Light rail systems need to be aligned with existing activity centers, rather than expected to stimulate new development or the redevelopment of distressed urban areas.

working paper

When Do Consumers Favor Price Increases: With Applications to Congestion and to Regulation

Publication Date

November 30, 1992

Author(s)

Abstract

For a conventional good, an increase in price reduces the consumer surplus of both those who no longer buy the good, and of those who continue to buy it. If, however, consumers must spend real resources to obtain rights for the good, or if the quality depends on the number of other consumers trying to obtain the same good, then a price increase may have different effects. Both these characteristics apply to congestible goods: a consumer’s utility decreases in the price he pays and in the number of other persons who use the good. Some users may gain from a price increase which reduces demand. Therefore, even if the revenue is not returned to the users, their welfare can increase.

working paper

Monocentric and Polycentric Density Functions and Their Required Commutes

Publication Date

September 30, 1992

Author(s)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between urban structure and commuting behavior. Analyzing the 1980 journey-to-work data for the Los Angeles region, this paper has shown that polycentric density functions fit the actual urban structure better than the conventional monocentric model. This finding indicates the preeminence of accessibility to major employment centers in location choices.

This paper also estimates commute flows implied by the polycentric and monocentric functions. It finds the monocentric model very poor at explaining commuting behavior. The empirical results show that polycentric urban structure increases the urban commute. This finding helps to preserve the assumption that urban workers economize on commuting, and suggests that efforts to promote more efficient urban form, such as the jobs-housing balance policy, have the potential to succeed.

working paper

Accessibility of Neotraditional Neighborhoods: A Review of Design Concepts, Policies and Recent Literature

Publication Date

August 31, 1992

Abstract

Neotraditional Neighborhood Design (NTND) has gained increasing attention from professional, academic, and popular circles during the past ten years. This review establishes a baseline evaluation of NTND, with the goal of providing the background for more specific research in the future. The first section of the paper orients NTND in a historical context, reviewing the main subdivision design trends of the past century and how NTND has either diverged or borrowed from them. The second section of the paper focuses on a review of current issues and policies related to this planning trend, with special attention directed toward transportation and land use research and the effect of neotraditional design on accessibility of the transportation system. The paper concludes by offering an assessment of the potential of NTND to address growth-related problems in suburban areas and by identifying key unmet research needs.

working paper

Private Toll Roads: Learning from the 19th Century

Abstract

California has authorized four toll roads to be constructed and operated by private groups, and it is considering more. Construction on a similar 14-mile project in Virginia will begin in 1992. Florida, Texas, and Colorado are considering proposals for private toll roads, and there is talk of a 500-mile private connection between Chicago and Kansas City. Outside the United States, private groups are operating toll roads in France and Italy. Indeed, the idea of private toll roads is making a comeback.

We say “comeback” because many regions of the United States were once laced with private toll roads. In the early 1800s turnpiking was the leading form of transportation improvement. At mid-century an elaborate system of short turnpikes and plank roads served as feeders to the canals and railroads. In Colorado and California private toll roads served the early mining camps. By the year 1900 scores of rustic toll roads continued to traverse rural areas nation-wide. During the 19th century at least 2,000 private companies operated toll roads.

working paper

Wasteful Commuting: A Resolution

Publication Date

July 31, 1992

Abstract

A debate over the empirical underpinnings of urban economic models is emerging under the unlikely rubric of “wasteful commuting.” Hamilton (1982) shows that a commonly used monocentric model, in which employment and population densities decline exponentially from a center, greatly underpredicts actual commuting distances in typical U.S. and Japanese metropolitan areas. He concludes that the monocentric model is fundamentally flawed. This conclusion is challenged by White (1988b), who examines the cost-minimizing assignment of households to residential locations, taking density patterns as they are and measuring cost by travel time. White finds that for a sample of U.S. metropolitan areas, only 11 percent of actual commuting cost is in excess of the cost-minimizing amount, rather than the 87 percent found by Hamilton. Hamilton (1989) and Cropper and Gordon (1991), using variations of White’s technique, obtain results intermediate between these extremes.

working paper

When Barriers to Markets Fail: Pipeline Deregulation, Spot Markets, and the Topology of the Natural Gas Market

Publication Date

July 31, 1992

Abstract

Until 184, Federal regulation sanctioned monopoly as the primary mechanism for distributing natural gas. Pipelines were granted protected markets and permitted to acquire and distribute gas only through long-term contracts. To buy or sell gas, users and producers had to deal with the pipeline, they could not deal directly. Gas markets failed to exit. In 1985, pipelines were given the option to become “open access” pipelines who transported gas. This change dissolved the barriers to markets and, for the first time in more than fifty years, authorized competition. In this paper, we observe and evaluate the emergence, evolution and performance of natural gas spot markets in this new environment. We discover that spot markets flourished in the absence of regulatory barriers to their existence; more than fifty spot markets came into existence and quickly replaced long-term contracts and pipelines as sources gas. The spot price evidence reveals that open access changed the topology of the pipeline network: the balkanized and disconnected network of gas markets created by regulation became more strongly connected and spot prices converged and became more correlated throughout the network. By the end of our sample period, gas markets had become liquid and informationally efficient — demand or supply shocks are strongly damped across the network, and the price at any point contains all the information in the network. The spatially separated spot markets are now so strongly connected that they form a single national market for natural gas.