working paper

A Comparative Assessment of Travel Characteristics for Neo-Traditional Developments

Publication Date

July 31, 1992

Abstract

The primary intent of this research is to explore the claim that transportation benefits can be derived from neo-traditional neighborhood design. Conventional transportation planning models are used as tools to evaluate the performance differences of two hypothetical street networks designed to replicate a neo-traditional and a conventional suburban community. Relative transportation benefits are measured in terms of vehicle-miles travelled (VMT), average trip lengths, and congestion on links and at intersections. This comparison provides an assessment of how well the two networks in question deal with trips generated by the activities which they serve. All aspects of the modelled communities are held constant except for the actual configuration of the networks. This type of evaluation can indicate, for example, whether the same level of activity (defined by the land uses within the community) creates greater congestion on one type of network, or if trip lengths on one network are generally longer. The ultimate goal is to determine if one network type, because of the nature of its design, can result in a more efficient transportation system.

working paper

Spatial Structure and Urban Commuting

Publication Date

July 31, 1992

Author(s)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between urban structure and commuting behavior. Analyzing the 1980 journey-to-work data for the Los Angeles region, this paper has shown that polycenteric density functions fit the actual urban structure better than the conventional monocentric model. This finding indicates the preeminence of accessibilty to major employment centers in location choices.

This paper also estimates commute flows implied by the polycentric and monocentric functions. It finds the monocentric model very poor at explaining commuting behavior. The empirical results show that polycentric urban structure increases the urban commute. This finding helps to preserve the assumption that urban workers economize on commuting, and suggests that efforts to promote more efficient urban form, such as the jobs-housing balance policy, have the potential to succeed.

working paper

Transportation Access, Urban Problems, and Intrametropolitan Population and Employment Changes

Publication Date

June 30, 1992

Author(s)

Abstract

This study examines the competing roles of transportation access and urban problems in the continuing suburbanization of American metropolitan areas. In particular, the paper asks whether suburbanization is primarily an adjustment to existing transportation networks, as predicted by the monocentric urban model, or whether decentralization is the result of persons and firms fleeing a host of central city problems, as is more consistent with a Tiebout model. This question is empirically tested by examining the determinants of population and employment changes for 365 northern New Jersey municipalities in the 1980s. The findings suggest that both transportation access and intra-metropolitan differences in local characteristics are important determinants of municipal population and employment changes. Furthermore, transportation access and local characteristics have roughly equal policy importance. This suggests that policies aimed at controlling land use patterns should be cognizant of both transportation networks and local characteristics such as fiscal policy and crime rates.

Phd Dissertation

Spatial structure and urban commuting

Publication Date

June 29, 1992

Author(s)

Abstract

The dissertation examines the spatial patterns of employment and worker residences with three urban density functions: monocentric, polycentric, and omnicentric. Analysis of the 1980 journey-to-work census data for the Los Angeles region reveals that the polycentric density functions statistically predict the actual distributions better than the monocentric density functions. It further shows that the omnicentric density function best predicts the distribution of worker residences. These findings suggest that polycentricity of spatial structure exists in large urban areas, and implies that accessibility to the general employment opportunities is the primary determinant in the residential location choices. The research also investigates urban commuting behavior by estimating the minimum average commute required by these three models. The results show that different urban forms require different amounts of minimum commuting. The standard monocentric model requires a small amount of commute–about one-tenth of the actual commute. The polycentric model predicts the actual commute much better than the monocentric model. Its required commute is about two-fifths of the actual commute, indicating that polycentricity has a positive effect on the estimate of required commute. The omnicentric model best explains the actual commuting patterns among the three models. Its required commute accounts for about 45 percent of the actual commute. These empirical results lead to the conclusion that an urban model better predicting the actual spatial patterns also better explains the actual commuting behavior. This conclusion helps to preserve the assumption that urban workers make attempts to economize on commuting in their location choices. This assumption is implicit in all the three models and implies a positive relationship between the fit of an urban model in explaining the actual distributions and the ability to predict the actual commute. The finding, the standard monocentric model is very poor at explaining the observed urban commute in a major metropolitan area, is more an indictment of the monocentricity assumption than a rejection of the assumption on the commuting behavior. The standard monocentric model greatly underpredicts the actual urban commute because it inadequately represents the actual spatial structure in large metropolitan areas. Relaxing the monocentricity assumption yields better prediction of actual commuting behavior.

Phd Dissertation

Open access transportation, network competition, and market integration in the natural gas pipeline industry.

Publication Date

June 29, 1992

Author(s)

Abstract

Until recently, federal regulation required natural gas pipelines to bundle the sale of natural gas with its transportation. Gas fields connected to city markets through merchant carrier pipelines who bought and sold gas through long-term contracts. Gas buyers were unable to transact directly with gas producers; they were able to deal only through merchant pipelines. This structure nearly precluded gas markets; there were only a few spot markets and there was no futures market. Relaxed pipeline regulation has changed this; natural gas pipelines were permitted to unbundle gas from transportation and to offer pure transportation service. As more pipelines declared themselves to be “open access” pipelines, spot markets emerged and a futures market opened. Soon pipelines transported far more gas on behalf of their customers than they sold to them. By using and trading transportation on several pipelines, brokers and customers developed the ability to buy and sell gas at many points in the dense transmission grid. When enough pipelines opened themselves to transportation, the connected topology of the network could and did support geographic and intertemporal arbitrage. Monthly and daily spot gas field and citygate prices are examined to determine the extent to which these markets have become integrated. The empirical results show that prices converged and became more cointegrated across the network. The results of a vector autoregression model support the conclusion that by 1990, trading and arbitrage under the new market institutions enforced an equilibrium free of arbitrage opportunities at the field level. At the city market level, the no-arbitrage condition does not yet hold as strongly due to the restrictions placed on transferable transportation rights by state and local authorities. There are still limitations preventing full development of markets and competition in the pipeline network. In light of the dramatic increase in the efficiency of the natural gas market, there is no evidence to support the need for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or regulation. Regulation caused the price disparities and allocative inefficiency that markets eliminated.

working paper

Using the Revenues From Congestion Pricing

Publication Date

June 17, 1992

Author(s)

Abstract

Congestion pricing has many goals and benefits, but one thing is clear: its success depends on wise use of the revenues. The economic theory behind the concept relies on these revenues to help compensate for the payments required of highway users. Practical and ethical considerations similarly dictate that those who would otherwise be harmed by the fees receive tangible benefits from the revenues.

This paper investigates the possibilities for designing a package of congestion prices and revenue uses that can attract wide support. The suggested approach returns two-thirds of the revenues to travelers through travel allowances and tax reductions, and uses the rest to improve transportation throughout the area and provide targeted services to affected business centers. By replacing regressive sales and fuel taxes, this approach offsets the tendency of the prices alone to have a regressive distributional impact. By lowering taxes, funding new highways, improving transit, and providing business services, the package provides inducements for support from several key interest groups.

working paper

Employee Transportation Coordinators: A New Profession in Southern California

Publication Date

March 31, 1992

Author(s)

Martin Wachs, Gen Giuliano

Abstract

Transportation demand management, or TDM, has emerged as a policy of choice for responding to growth, congestion, air pollution, and constrained transportation budgets. TDM is aimed at reducing congestion by restricting travel demand, rather than by providing more transportation capacity. It includes strategies such as shifting solo drivers to carpools or transit, allowing more employees to work at home, or adjusting work schedules to avoid peak period auto travel.

working paper

Demand for Clean-Fuel Personal Vehicles in California: A Discrete-Choice Stated Preference Survey

Publication Date

February 29, 1992

Author(s)

David Bunch, Mark Bradley, Thomas Golob

Abstract

A study was conducted to determine how demand for clean-fuel vehicles and their fuels is likely to vary as a function of attributes that distinguish these vehicles from conventional gasoline vehicles. For the purposes of the study, clean-fuel vehicles are defined to encompass both electric vehicles, and unspecified (methanol, ethanol, compressed natural gas or propane) liquid and gaseous fuel vehicles, in both de or multiple-fuel versions. The attributes include vehicle purchase price, fuel operating cost, vehicle range between refueling, availability of fuel, dedicated versus multiple-fuel capability, and the level of reduction in emissions (compared to current vehicles). In a mail-back stated preference survey, approximately 700 respondents in the California South Coast Air Basin gave their choices among sets of hypothetical future vehicles, as well as their choices between alternative fuel versus gasoline for hypothetical multiple-fuel vehicles. Estimates of attribute importance and segment differences are made using discrete-choice nested multinomial logit models for vehicle choice, and binomial logit models for fuel choice. These estimates can be used to modify present vehicle-type choice and utilization models to accommodate clean-fuel vehicles; they can also be used to evaluate scenarios for alternative clean-fuel vehicle and fuel supply configurations. Results indicate that range between refueling is an important attribute, particularly if range for an alternative fuel is substantially less than that for gasoline. For fuel choice, the most important attribute is fuel cost, but the predicted probability of choosing alternative fuel is also affected by emissions levels, which can compensate for differences in fuel prices.

working paper

The Effects of Consumer Beliefs and Environmental Concerns on the Market Potential for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles

Publication Date

February 29, 1992

Author(s)

Abstract

The objective of the present study is to identify relationships that exist among: (i) intentions to purchase alternative-fuel vehicles prior to their large-scale introduction, (ii) attitudes toward the environment, (iii) perceived importance of convenience and economy of ownership and operation, and (iv) consumer uncertainties. The intent is to unveil what factors, if any, may impede the promotion of alternative fuels, and, in turn, offer some guidelines for successful marketing of alternative-fuel vehicles. The study results can also aid in future stated preference demand estimation surveys by identifying factors that are likely to play important roles in the purchase of alternative vehicles.