Abstract

In 1995-96, the authors participated in an eight-month long trial of prototype EVs, with the proviso that we could use some of the results for academic research. We were particularly interested in comparing data collected from trials with matched data collected from a panel survey. Our objective was to better understand vehicle trials as a source of information for transportation planning and market research, beyond the usual consumer preference information gathered for vehicle design purposes. The methodological issues were of particular concern, for as we discuss in the next section, trials provide useful data at one level, but they can also introduce new sources of bias and uncertainty to data collection and interpretation. We also investigated how perceptions towards EVs would change with the “hands-on” experience of a trial. 

In this paper we report findings from this trial, with a particular emphasis upon the methodological issues. We intentionally do not discuss purchase intentions, and focus, instead, upon a broader set of results. An objective is to provide transportation planners with useful data about characteristics like vehicle miles travelled, intra-household vehicle switching, and long trip taking when there are multiple data sources from the same respondents, including travel diaries and pre- and post trial panel survey data. This provides insight into how households might choose to use future electric vehicles, and it also addresses the issue of whether trials are an effective and efficient data collection method. The research is expected to provide useful information for those who wish to organize and interpret data from future consumer vehicle trials and it also provides more limited evidence about how households would use future electric vehicles that had a limited range.

Abstract

Public interest in the environment is building as we gain information about the deterioration in air quality and the potential threat of global warming. This research addresses the dichotomy between an individual’s behavior and his or her attitudinal support for policies which are promoted as benefiting the environmental. We study how responses to attitudinal survey questions are interrelated, and how such responses are related to actual travel behavior using data from a survey undertaken in six capital cities in Australia in 1994. A measurement model is used to establish a set of latent attitudinal factors, and these factors are related in a structural equations model to a set of behavioral variables representing commuter’s mode choice and choice of compressed work schedules, conditioned by a set of exogenous variables. Individuals with a strong environmental commitment are more likely to be female, from smaller households with fewer cars, be either under 30 years old or over 50 years old, have high household income and be highly educated. However, women are likely to view the car as a status symbol, and this attitude is conducive to choice of solo driving. Commuters who use public transport are more likely to support policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Switching commuters away from solo driving can have effects that transcend the benefit obtained from reduced vehicle use for the journey to work alone.

Abstract

This research deals with demand for automobiles and light-duty and medium-duty trucks. Planners concerned with energy consumption, air quality and the provision of transportation facilities must have dependable forecasts of vehicle ownership and use from both the residential (personal-use vehicle) sectors and the fleet (commercial and governmental) sectors. As long as vehicles evolved slowly, it was possible to base such forecasts on extrapolations of observed demand. However, in an era of increasing environmental awareness, mandated in part by the Clean Air Act Amendments (US EPA, 1990), government agencies are now concerned with promoting clean-fuel vehicles; vehicle manufacturers are faced with designing and marketing clean-fuel vehicles; and suppliers of fuels other than gasoline must plan infrastructure and pricing policies.

Abstract

Fleet demand for alternative-fuel vehicles (‘AFVs’ operating on fuels such as electricity, compressed natural gas, or methanol) is investigated through an analysis of a 1994 survey of 2000 fleet sites in California. This survey gathered information on site characteristics, awareness of mandates and incentives for AFV operation, and AFV purchase intentions. The survey also contained stated preference tasks in which fleet decision makers simulated fleet-replacement purchases by indicating how they would allocate their choices across a ‘selector list’ of hypothetical future vehicles. A discrete choice model was estimated to obtain preference tradeoffs for fuel types and other vehicle attributes. The overall tradeoff between vehicle range and vehicle capital cost in the sample was $80/mile of range, but with some variation by fleet sector. The availability (density) of off-site alternative fuel stations was important to fleet operators, indicating that fleets are willing to trade off more fuel infrastructure for changes in other attributes, e.g. increased capital or operating costs, or more limited vehicle range. Public fleets (local and county government) were the most sensitive to the capital cost of new vehicles. Along with schools, they are the only fleet sector where reduced tailpipe emission levels are a significant predictor of vehicle choice. Fleet operators in the private sector base their vehicle selection less on environmental concerns than on practical operational needs.

Abstract

Fleet demand for alternative-fuel vehicles (“AFVs” operating on fuels such as electricity, compressed natural gas, or methanol) is investigated through an analysis of a 1994 survey of 2,000 fleet sites in California. This survey gathered information on site characteristics, awareness of mandates and incentives for AFV operation, and AFV purchase intentions. The survey also contained stated preference tasks in which fleet decision makers simulated fleet-replacement purchases by indicating how they would allocate their choices across a “selector list” of hypothetical future vehicles. A discrete choice model was estimated to obtain preference tradeoffs for fuel types and other vehicle attributes. The overall tradeoff between vehicle range and vehicle capital cost in the sample was $80 per mile of range, but with some variation by fleet sector. tradeoff The availability (density) of off-site alternative fuel stations was important to fleet operators, indicating that fleets are willing to trade off more fuel infrastructure for changes in other attributes, e.g., increased capital or operating costs, or more limited vehicle range. Public fleets (local and county government) were the most sensitiv the capital cost of new vehicles. Along with schools, they are the only fleet sector where reduced tailpipe emission levels are a significant predictor of vehicle choice. Fleet operators in the private sector base their vehicle selection less on environmental concerns than on practical operational needs.

Abstract

This research deals with demand for automobiles and light-duty and medium-duty trucks. Planners concerned with energy consumption, air quality and the provision of transportation facilities must have dependable forecasts of vehicle ownership and use from both the residential (personal-use vehicle) sectors and the fleet (commercial and governmental) sectors. As long as vehicles evolved slowly, it was possible to base such forecasts on extrapolations of observed demand. However, in an era of increasing environmental awareness, mandated in part by the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments (US EPA, 1990), government agencies are now concerned with promoting clean-fuel vehicles; vehicle manufacturers are faced with designing and marketing clean-fuel vehicles; and suppliers of fuels other than gasoline must plan infrastructure and pricing policies. 

In California, and potentially also in a number of Northeast States, stringent vehicle emission standards have been adopted or proposed and specific zero-emissions and ultra-low-emissions vehicle mandates are in place. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) requires that new cars sold in the state emit 80 percent less hydrocarbons by the year 2000, and 50 to 75 percent less carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide. CARB has also mandated the production and sale of zero-emission (presumably electric) vehicles, beginning with 2 percent of annual car sales in 1998 and increasing to 10 percent in 2003. Elsewhere in the United States, clean-air and fuel management legislation (U.S. DOE, 1994) specifically targets fleets as markets for clean-fuel vehicles. Research is needed to establish the extent to which there is demand for clean-fuel vehicles. In reaction to this need, the Southern California Edison Company and the California Energy Commission is sponsoring a project to develop a dynamic demand forecasting model for clean-fuel vehicles in California. In this paper we briefly describe the forecasting system being developed and summarize some preliminary results.

Abstract

This research describes a new model of household vehicle usage behavior by type of vehicle. Forecasts of future vehicle emissions, including potential gains that might be attributed to introductions of alternative-fuel (clean-fuel) vehicles, critically depend upon the ability to forecast vehicle miles traveled by the fuel type, body style and size, and vintage of the vehicle.

Abstract

Although it is widely recognized that fleets are critical to the growth of alternative fuel technologies, survey data needed to develop fleet demand models have been generally unavailable prior to 1994, due to the difficulty of establishing a representative sample of both business and government organizations with fleet operations. The current study provides results from a large, broad-based sample of fleet sites in California, part of a broader project to develop an integrated vehicle demand forecasting system for both households and fleets (Brownstone, et al., 1994). The 1994 California Fleet Site Survey was based on a comprehensive sample derived from motor-vehicle registration records, and a survey response rate in excess of 70% was obtained.

Initial results from the 1994 California Fleet Site Survey are explored In this paper. The paper is organized as follows: Previous research is discussed in Section 2, followed by a description of the survey in Section 3. Fleet site characteristics are explored in Section 4. Vehicle utilization is analyzed in Section 5, and the effects of fleet operators’ awareness of clean fuel mandates is explored in Section 6. Nearterm AFV purchase intention is examined in Section 7. A model of vehicle choice is presented in Section 8 to provide insights into the attribute tradeoffs that fleet managers are likely to exhibit when making future vehicle acquisitions in the presence of AFV’s. Finally, the conclusions drawn to date are reported in Section 9.