Abstract

A method for accurate emissions estimation that will contribute to promoting public health has been increasingly important. The purpose of this study is to develop a novel method that is designed to make accurate real-time emissions estimation from individual vehicles on freeways possible. The benefit of this method is that it can overcome the weakness of macroscopic emissions estimation methods, which underestimated emissions. The most distinguishing feature of the Speed Profile Estimation (SPE) method is that it uses a speed profile (SP) that is generated by the sum of a basic SP (BSP), which is calculated by the basic travel information of an individual vehicle obtained from vehicle reidentification (REID), and a residual SP (RSP), which is estimated by categorized traffic information. In order to estimate RSP this research employs Autoregressive (AR) model and Fourier series (FS). And to find the parameters of RSP, the total absolute difference between actual SP emissions and estimated SP emissions was optimized by genetic algorithm. For this, parameters are calculated for all possible combinations of three categorizations and clusters by K-mean clustering. Individual vehicle trajectories from two freeways, US101 and I-80, were provided by the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) dataset. US101 was examined for calibration, and I-80 for validation. And then, transferability tests were conducted for various section distances to verify model transferability. Finally, REID is simulated with low vehicle signatures match rates to test its applicability to real situations. Unlike previous methods, the SPE is notable for its real-time, transferable, reliable, and cost efficient emissions estimation. The calibration and validation account only 4.0 % and 4.1 % MAPEs, respectively. Moreover, transferability tests showed that MAPEs are lower than 4.4 % in both longer and shorter section distances. Furthermore, REID simulation increases only 0.2 % MAPE even in low vehicle signatures match rates, which is lower than 5 % MAPE in emissions estimation. Any signal-like formulation other than AR or FS can perform better emissions estimation when it replaces the RSP. Also, in this research the SPE method was calibrated only for LOS F, when it is arguably of greatest value, but further research should be coordinated to extend the models in other possible traffic conditions such as LOS ÃE.