working paper

Why Do Inner City Residents Pay Higher Premiums? The Determinants of Automobile Insurance Premiums

Publication Date

January 1, 2008

Author(s)

Paul Ong

Abstract

Auto insurance rates can vary dramatically, with much higher premiums in poor and minority areas than elsewhere, even after accounting for individual characteristics, driving history and coverage. This project used a unique data set to examine the relative influence of place-based socioeconomic characteristics (or redlining) and place-based risk factors on the place-based component of automobile insurance premiums. We used a novel approach of combining tract-level census data and car insurance rate quotes from multiple companies for sub-areas within the city of Los Angeles. The quotes are for a hypothetical individual with identical demographic and auto characteristics, driving records and insurance coverage. This method allowed the individual demographic and driving record to be fixed. Multivariate models are then used to estimate the independent contributions of these risk and redlining factors to the place-based component of the car insurance premium. We find that both risk and redlining factors are associated with variations in insurance costs in the place-based component, with black and poor neighborhoods being adversely affected, although risk factors are stronger predictors. However, even after risk factors are taken into account in the model specification, SES factors remain statistically significant. Moreover, simulations show that redlining factors explain more of the gap in auto insurance premiums between black (and Latino) and white neighborhoods and between poor and nonpoor neighborhoods. The findings do not appear sensitive to the individual characteristics of the hypothetical driver.

research report

The personal travel assistant (PTA): Measuring the dynamics of human travel behavior

Abstract

A simple, continuously collected GPS sequence was investigated to determine whether it can be used to accurately measure human behavior. Hybrid Dynamic Mixed Network (HDMN) modeling techniques were applied to learn behaviors given an extended GPS data stream. A key design decision behind the proposed architecture was to use an Enterprise Service Bus (ESB) to provide a communication infrastructure among various components of the application. Personal Travel Assistants running on mobile devices like cell phones could help travelers change their travel plans when routes are affected by crashes or natural disasters.

Suggested Citation
Will Recker, James E. Marca, Craig Rindt and R. Dechter (2010) The personal travel assistant (PTA): Measuring the dynamics of human travel behavior. University of California Transportation Center, p. 46p. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/94s473v6.

published journal article

MARKOV CHAIN MODELS IN PRACTICE: A REVIEW OF LOW COST SOFTWARE OPTIONS

Investigación Operacional

Publication Date

April 28, 2023

Author(s)

Jiaru Bai, Cristina del Campo, Robin Keller

Abstract

<p><span id="page3R_mcid27" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*263.71px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.939886);" role="presentation">Markov processes (or Markov chains) are used for modeling a phenomenon in which changes over time of a random variable</span> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*272.95px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.91935);" role="presentation">comprise a sequence of values in the future, each of which depends only on the immediately preceding state, not on other past</span> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*282.19px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.915678);" role="presentation">states. A Markov process (PM) is completely characterized by specifying the finite set S of possible states and the stationary</span> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.934392);" role="presentation">probabilities (i.e. time-invariant) of transition between these states.</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid28" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*318.67px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.987133);" role="presentation">The</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid29" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid30" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*333.07px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.952517);" role="presentation">software</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid31" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid32" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*362.47px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.888688);" role="presentation">mos</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid33" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*375.82px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.879561);" role="presentation">t used</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid34" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid35" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*396.82px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.937188);" role="presentation">in medical applications</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid36" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid37" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*473.02px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.901263);" role="presentation">is</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid38" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid39" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*480.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.935546);" role="presentation">produced by </span></span><span id="page3R_mcid40" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.969267);" role="presentation">TreeAge</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid41" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*128.18px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif;" role="presentation">,</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid42" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*132.26px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.942177);" role="presentation">since it offers</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid43" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid44" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*177.89px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.933813);" role="presentation">many</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid45" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid46" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*197.69px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.932563);" role="presentation">advantages to the user. But, the cost of the Treeage software is relatively high.</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid47" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*454.42px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.964072);" role="presentation">Therefore in this</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid48" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.927866);" role="presentation">article two software alternatives are presented: Sto Tree</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid49" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid50" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*280.63px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.927152);" role="presentation">and</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid51" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid52" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*294.31px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.88554);" role="presentation">the zero cost ad</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid53" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*344.35px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif;" role="presentation">d</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid54" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*348.43px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif;" role="presentation">-</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid55" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*350.95px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.957184);" role="presentation">in package "markovchain" implemented in R. An</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid56" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*318.91px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.909639);" role="presentation">example of a cost</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid57" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*156.62px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*318.91px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif;" role="presentation">-</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid58" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*159.29px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*318.91px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.932854);" role="presentation">effectiveness analysis of two possible treatments for advanced cervical cancer, previously conducted with the</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid59" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*328.15px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.927157);" role="presentation">Treeage software, is re</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid60" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*173.21px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*328.15px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif;" role="presentation">-</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid61" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*175.85px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*328.15px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.916132);" role="presentation">analyzed with these two low cost software packages.</span></span> <span id="page3R_mcid63" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*337.27px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.95059);" role="presentation">You can find a Spanish version of this paper in the following link: http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/lrkeller/publications</span></span></p>

Suggested Citation
Jiaru Bai, Cristina del Campo and L. Robin Keller (2023) “MARKOV CHAIN MODELS IN PRACTICE: A REVIEW OF LOW COST SOFTWARE OPTIONS”, Investigación Operacional, 38(1). Available at: https://revistas.uh.cu/invoperacional/article/view/4420 (Accessed: September 10, 2025).

policy brief

Evaluating Equity in Transportation and Hazard Preparedness Plans: A Multi-Level Governance Approach

Abstract

Environmental justice (EJ) principles are essential for addressing inequities in transportation and hazard preparedness; however, they are often applied in a fragmented manner. Historically, urban planning in the United States has created racial and economic divisions, particularly through policies like redlining and freeway construction that displaced communities of color. These practices have systematically and disproportionately exposed marginalized groups to environmental harms. The EJ movement has advocated for addressing these disparities through equity-focused policies. However, the integration of EJ principles into plans remains incomplete, with prior studies focusing on individual plans or jurisdictions, failing to consider broader governance systems and the need for equity to bridge multiple plan types. These challenges are compounded by the shift from centralized to decentralized governance, creating a fragmented landscape where different levels of government and departments operate with distinct priorities. Multi-level governance (MLG) creates both opportunities and challenges for equity-centered planning. While it enables state funding, regional planning, and local implementation to align, fragmented jurisdictions often leave transportation, hazard, and climate plans in silos. Intentional coordination is needed to embed EJ principles across all levels of planning. This analysis focuses on Los Angeles due to its overlapping jurisdictions, large transit system, and history of environmental injustice making it a critical test case for how MLG can both enable and constrain equity-centered planning. This policy brief is based on our evaluation of 16 climate action, racial equity, transportation, and hazard preparedness plans in Greater Los Angeles, which was systematically scored based on three existing EJ pillars: Recognition Justice, Procedural Justice, and Distributive Justice

Suggested Citation
Jeannine Marie Pearce, Nicola Ulibarri and Elisa Borowski (2025) Evaluating Equity in Transportation and Hazard Preparedness Plans: A Multi-Level Governance Approach. Policy Brief. Available at: https://ezid.cdlib.org/id/doi:10.7922/G28G8J3M (Accessed: September 16, 2025).

published journal article

Is the Journey to Work Explained by Urban Structure?

Urban Studies

Publication Date

November 1, 1993

Abstract

Basic to several key issues in current urban economic theory and public policy is a presumption that local imbalances between employment and residential sites strongly influence people’s commuting patterns. We examine this presumption by finding the commuting pattern for the Los Angeles region in 1980 which would minimise average commuting time or distance, given the actual spatial distributions of job and housing locations. We find that the amount of commuting required by these distributions is far less than actual commuting, and that variations in required commuting across job locations only weakly explain variations in actual commuting. We conclude that other factors must be more important to location decisions than commuting cost, and that policies aimed at changing the jobs-housing balance will have only a minor effect on commuting.

Suggested Citation
Genevieve Giuliano and Kenneth A. Small (1993) “Is the Journey to Work Explained by Urban Structure?”, Urban Studies, 30(9), pp. 1485–1500. Available at: 10.1080/00420989320081461.

conference paper

Effect of route choice models on estimation of travel time reliability under demand and supply variations

Proceedings, First International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability

Publication Date

January 1, 2002

Author(s)

Suggested Citation
A. Chen, Z. Ji and W. W. Recker (2002) “Effect of route choice models on estimation of travel time reliability under demand and supply variations”, in Proceedings, First International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability. Kyoto.

published journal article

The traffic statics problem in a road network

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological

Publication Date

December 1, 2012

Author(s)

Suggested Citation
Wen-Long Jin (2012) “The traffic statics problem in a road network”, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 46(10), pp. 1360–1373. Available at: 10.1016/j.trb.2012.06.003.

published journal article

Uncertainty and the timing of an urban congestion relief investment.

Journal of Urban Economics

Publication Date

March 1, 2006

Abstract

We analyze the impact of population uncertainty on the socially optimum timing of a congestion-relief project in a linear monocentric city with fixed boundaries, where congestion pricing cannot be implemented. This project requires time to bear fruit but no urban land. Under certainty, we show that utility maximization is roughly equivalent to a standard benefit-cost analysis (BCA). Under Uncertainty, we derive an explicit optimal threshold for relieving congestion when the urban population follows a geometric Brownian motion. If the time to implement the project is short, we show analytically that deciding on the timing of congestion relief based on a BCA could lead to acting prematurely; the reverse holds if project implementation is long and uncertainty is large enough. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation
Jean-Daniel M. Saphores and Marlon G. Boarnet (2006) “Uncertainty and the timing of an urban congestion relief investment.”, Journal of Urban Economics, 59(2), pp. 189–208. Available at: 10.1016/j.jue.2005.04.003.

published journal article

Short-term traffic flow prediction using neuro-genetic algorithms

Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems

Publication Date

January 1, 2002
Suggested Citation
Baher Abdulhai, Himanshu Porwal and Will Recker (2002) “Short-term traffic flow prediction using neuro-genetic algorithms”, Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, 7(1), pp. 3–41. Available at: 10.1080/713930748.

research report

Fine Particulate Concentrations Near Arterial Streets: The Influence of Building Placement and Wind Flow

Abstract

This paper provides preliminary evidence that the placement of buildings influences the concentration of fine particulates by altering wind flow. The authors collected measurements of fine particulate concentration, wind speed, wind direction, and traffic levels around five Southern California arterials selected to represent a range of building densities. In some cases the difference in average concentrations between opposite sides of the street was on the order of 10 μg/m3. In most cases the concentration was higher on the upwind side of the street, where the wind wakes of buildings limit the dispersion of particulates. Although this work is exploratory in nature, it reveals that fine particulate concentrations can vary even within a single city block, a scale finer than those used in current policy models. Given the trend towards infill development and densification in many places, this is an important topic that warrants further research to more fully understand the influence of the built environment on air quality.

Suggested Citation
Marlon Boarnet, GAVIN FERGUSON and RUFUS D EDWARDS (2010) Fine Particulate Concentrations Near Arterial Streets: The Influence of Building Placement and Wind Flow. Research Report. ITS-Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3jk569f1.