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A Disaggregate Model of Auto-Type Choice
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Author(s)
Abstract
Previous models of auto-type choice have not been able to disentangle very much of the structure of the household’s auto-choice decision: the models assumed that very few auto characteristics affect choice, and often these few parameters were estimated with low precision. Hence the models had only limited use in forecasting the effects of government policies to influence transportation energy consumption. The present paper introduces a multinomial logit model for the type of car that households will choose to buy. The model includes a large variety of auto characteristics as explanatory variables, as well as a large number of characteristics of the household and the driving environment. The model fits the data quite well, and all of the variables enter with the correct signs and plausible magnitudes.
Suggested Citation
Charles A. Lave and Kenneth Train (1977) A Disaggregate Model of Auto-Type Choice. Working Paper UCI-ITS-WP-77-1. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6nh3h8px.book/book chapter
When Are We Willing to Wait? Prescriptive Challenges in Evaluating Intertemporal Outcomes
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Author(s)
Abstract
The classic normative model for intertemporal preferences uses a constant discount rate, but behavioral experiments have shown that people do not tend to make choices consistent with a constant discount rate. We first present normative models for time preferences, then discuss descriptive results for choices between single outcomes occurring at different times. People often have different implicit discount rates for different types of scenarios, and several anomalies arise consistently. We contrast those results with findings for preferences for sequences of multiple outcomes over time. People tend to prefer increasing or constant sequences of outcomes over time, especially when the outcomes are non-monetary in nature. This suggests a willingness to wait for improvement, but not in the way that classical discounting would prescribe. We end with prescriptive nudges to improve dynamic consistency and pose questions still to be resolved about how decisions involving outcomes over time can be improved prescriptively.
Suggested Citation
Jeffery L. Guyse, Candice H. Huynh, L. Robin Keller and Jay Simon (2024) “When Are We Willing to Wait? Prescriptive Challenges in Evaluating Intertemporal Outcomes”, in F.M. Federspiel, G. Montibellerand M. Seifert (eds.) Behavioral Decision Analysis. Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 187–211. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44424-1_10 (Accessed: October 23, 2024).published journal article
Market structure and quality determination for complementary products: Alliances and service quality in the airline industry
International Journal of Industrial Organization
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Author(s)
Abstract
This paper explores the effect of market structure on quality determination for complementary products. The focus is on the airline industry and the effect of airline alliances on flight frequency, an important element of service quality. With zero layover cost, the choice of flight frequencies has the same double-marginalization structure as in the usual alliance model, leading to a higher frequency in the alliance case as double marginalization is eliminated, along with a lower full trip price and higher traffic. The surprising result of the paper emerges with high-cost layover time, where double marginalization in frequencies is absent and where an alliance reduces service quality via a lower frequency, with the full price potentially rising (in which case traffic falls). (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Suggested Citation
Jan K. Brueckner and Ricardo Flores-Fillol (2020) “Market structure and quality determination for complementary products: Alliances and service quality in the airline industry”, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 68, p. 102557. Available at: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2019.102557.conference paper
Two-step quadratic programming for physically meaningful smoothing of longitudinal vehicle trajectories
International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory (ISTTT25)
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Author(s)
Suggested Citation
Ximeng Fan, Wenlong Jin and Penghang Yin (2023) “Two-step quadratic programming for physically meaningful smoothing of longitudinal vehicle trajectories”. International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory (ISTTT25).Phd Dissertation
To Commute or Not to Commute? Impacts of Land Use, Housing Costs, and COVID-19 on Commuting
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Author(s)
Areas of Expertise
Abstract
Apart from the COVID-19 pandemic, two chronic problems affecting Californians are high housing costs and road congestion. Although high housing costs and the determinants of commuting have separately received a lot of attention from academic researchers, to my knowledge very few papers have analyzed the linkage between them. In this dissertation, I present three essays that will enhance our understanding on the relationship between commuting, land use, housing costs, and the impact of COVID-19 on telecommuting. In all three essays, I use Structural Equation Model (SEM). In my first essay, I propose a framework for understanding the impact of housing costs on commuting time and commuting distance in one worker-households in Los Angeles County, which is the most populous county in the US. After analyzing data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS), I find that households who can afford more expensive neighborhoods have on average a commute 3.1% shorter per additional $100k to their residence median home values. In my second essay, I analyze the commutes of two-worker households to understand some of the trade-offs they need to make, since two-worker households have dual work constraints. My data for this essay come from 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) respondents who reside in five U.S. MSAs (San Francisco, Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta). Results show that women do not commute as far as men on average, although their commuting time is not necessarily shorter than men’s, and that the commuting times of men and women are weakly positively correlated. Moreover, households have faster commutes by 14.5% for men and 22.7% for women per additional $1000 to their residence median monthly housing cost. My third essay investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on telecommuting by analyzing a unique dataset collected at the end of May 2021 by IPSOS via a random survey of California members of KnowledgePanel®. I find that an additional 4.2% of California workers would engage in some level of telecommuting and more educated workers are expecting to telecommute more (0.383* for bachelor’s degree) post-pandemic. Teasing out the impact of high housing costs on commuting is important at a time when concerns about the environmental impacts of transportation have turned reducing vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) into a policy priority. More generally, a better understanding of the determinants of commuting is critical to inform housing and transportation policy, improve the health of commuters, reduce air pollution, and achieve climate goals.
Suggested Citation
Md Rabiul Islam (2023) To Commute or Not to Commute? Impacts of Land Use, Housing Costs, and COVID-19 on Commuting. Ph.D.. UC Irvine. Available at: https://uci.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/permalink/01CDL_IRV_INST/u4evf/cdi_cdl_escholarship_oai_escholarship_org_ark_13030_qt4qc847f1 (Accessed: October 12, 2023).published journal article
Faster converging global heuristic for continuous network design using radial basis functions
Transportation Research Record
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Author(s)
Suggested Citation
Joseph Y.J. Chow, Amelia C. Regan and Dmitri I. Arkhipov (2010) “Faster converging global heuristic for continuous network design using radial basis functions”, Transportation Research Record, 2196(1), pp. 102–110. Available at: 10.3141/2196-11.working paper
Optimal Highway Durability
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Author(s)
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the complementary question of the optimal durability of highways. We find that in order to minimize discounted lifetime costs, typical urban interstate highways should be designed with thicker pavements lasting much longer between repavings. Furthermore, although existing roads have marginal pavement-wear costs that are quite high, optimal high-volume urban interstates would not. Thus the need for marginal-cost taxation, and the accompanying diversion of trucking industry revenues, would be virtually eliminated on a large portion of the nation’s highway network if the highways were built to optimal standards. We begin by reformulating the standard model of optimal highway pricing and investment (see Winston, 1985, p. 78) to include highway durability as a long-run decision variable. The resulting pricing rule includes both a congestion charge related to scarce capacity, and a heavy-vehicle charge related to scarce durability. We derive expressions for marginal-cost user charges, optimal capacity, optimal durability, and long-run marginal pavement-wear cost. We then explore empirically those parts of the model related to durability.
Suggested Citation
Kenneth A. Small and Clifford Winston (1986) Optimal Highway Durability. Working Paper UCI-ITS-WP-86-1. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7dv6n032.conference paper
A solid oxide fuel cell-gas turbine hybrid system for a freight rail application
ASME 2019 13th international conference on energy sustainability
Publication Date
Author(s)
Abstract
The simulation of a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell-Gas Turbine (SOFC-GT) hybrid system for a locomotive application is presented. Using Matlab Simulink, a 2.8 MW SOFC system was combined with a 500 kW GT and simulated to travel the route from Bakersfield to Mojave in California. Elevation data was imported using the Google API Console and smoothed in order to calculate the dynamic power demand for the SOFC-GT system, assuming 480 tons of freight per 120 ton locomotive traveling at an average speed of 45 mph. The SOFC-GT system model follows this demand without causing a significant disruption to the speed of the locomotive. A lithium-ion battery was included into the system model to improve the net system efficiency and make the operation smooth enough for the highly dynamic route. The overall efficiency along the simulated route has been calculated as 57% operating on partially pre-reformed natural gas fuel. These results suggest the development of a physical prototype of the simulated system and are very promising for the future of freight rail transportation throughout the US. CO2 and particulate matter emissions are significantly reduced compared to current diesel-electric locomotives and it is also possible to operate the system on hydrogen, i.e., completely emission-free. A techno-economic analysis to assess the economic feasibility of this system is currently being prepared.
Suggested Citation
Philipp Ahrend, Ali Azizi, Jacob Brouwer and G. Scott Samuelsen (2019) “A solid oxide fuel cell-gas turbine hybrid system for a freight rail application”, in ASME 2019 13th international conference on energy sustainability. American Society of Mechanical Engineers. Available at: 10.1115/es2019-3906.published journal article