conference paper
Archives: Research Products
published journal article
Coordinated flow model for strategic planning of autonomous mobility-on-demand systems
Transportmetrica A: Transport Science
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Abstract
High-quality strategic planning of autonomous mobility-on-demand (AMOD) systems is critical for the success of the subsequent phases of AMOD system implementation. To assist in strategic AMOD planning, we propose a dynamic and flexible flow-based model of an AMOD system. The proposed model is computationally fast while capturing the state transitions of two coordinated flows (i.e. co-flows): the AMOD service fleet vehicles and AMOD customers. Capturing important quantity dynamics and conservations through a system of ordinary differential equations, the model can economically respond to a large number and a wide range of scenario-testing requests. The paper illustrates the model efficacy through a basic example and a more realistic case study. The case study envisions replacing Manhattan’s existing taxi service with a hypothetical AMOD system. The results show that even a simple co-flow model can robustly predict the systemwide AMOD dynamics and support the strategic planning of AMOD systems.
Suggested Citation
Jiangbo (Gabe) Yu and Michael F. Hyland (2023) “Coordinated flow model for strategic planning of autonomous mobility-on-demand systems”, Transportmetrica A: Transport Science, 21(2), pp. 1–39. Available at: 10.1080/23249935.2023.2253474.conference paper
Geographic scalability and supply chain elasticity of a structural commodity generation model using public data
Proceedings of the 92nd annual meeting of transportation research board, washington, DC
Publication Date
Suggested Citation
F. Ranaiefar, J.Y. Chow, D. Rodriguez-Roman, P. Camargo and S.G. Ritchie (2013) “Geographic scalability and supply chain elasticity of a structural commodity generation model using public data”, in Proceedings of the 92nd annual meeting of transportation research board, washington, DC.research report
The personal travel assistant (PTA): Measuring the dynamics of human travel behavior
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Abstract
A simple, continuously collected GPS sequence was investigated to determine whether it can be used to accurately measure human behavior. Hybrid Dynamic Mixed Network (HDMN) modeling techniques were applied to learn behaviors given an extended GPS data stream. A key design decision behind the proposed architecture was to use an Enterprise Service Bus (ESB) to provide a communication infrastructure among various components of the application. Personal Travel Assistants running on mobile devices like cell phones could help travelers change their travel plans when routes are affected by crashes or natural disasters.
Suggested Citation
Will Recker, James E. Marca, Craig Rindt and R. Dechter (2010) The personal travel assistant (PTA): Measuring the dynamics of human travel behavior. University of California Transportation Center, p. 46p. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/94s473v6.working paper
Why Do Inner City Residents Pay Higher Premiums? The Determinants of Automobile Insurance Premiums
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Abstract
Auto insurance rates can vary dramatically, with much higher premiums in poor and minority areas than elsewhere, even after accounting for individual characteristics, driving history and coverage. This project used a unique data set to examine the relative influence of place-based socioeconomic characteristics (or redlining) and place-based risk factors on the place-based component of automobile insurance premiums. We used a novel approach of combining tract-level census data and car insurance rate quotes from multiple companies for sub-areas within the city of Los Angeles. The quotes are for a hypothetical individual with identical demographic and auto characteristics, driving records and insurance coverage. This method allowed the individual demographic and driving record to be fixed. Multivariate models are then used to estimate the independent contributions of these risk and redlining factors to the place-based component of the car insurance premium. We find that both risk and redlining factors are associated with variations in insurance costs in the place-based component, with black and poor neighborhoods being adversely affected, although risk factors are stronger predictors. However, even after risk factors are taken into account in the model specification, SES factors remain statistically significant. Moreover, simulations show that redlining factors explain more of the gap in auto insurance premiums between black (and Latino) and white neighborhoods and between poor and nonpoor neighborhoods. The findings do not appear sensitive to the individual characteristics of the hypothetical driver.
published journal article
MARKOV CHAIN MODELS IN PRACTICE: A REVIEW OF LOW COST SOFTWARE OPTIONS
Investigación Operacional
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Abstract
<p><span id="page3R_mcid27" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*263.71px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.939886);" role="presentation">Markov processes (or Markov chains) are used for modeling a phenomenon in which changes over time of a random variable</span> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*272.95px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.91935);" role="presentation">comprise a sequence of values in the future, each of which depends only on the immediately preceding state, not on other past</span> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*282.19px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.915678);" role="presentation">states. A Markov process (PM) is completely characterized by specifying the finite set S of possible states and the stationary</span> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.934392);" role="presentation">probabilities (i.e. time-invariant) of transition between these states.</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid28" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*318.67px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.987133);" role="presentation">The</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid29" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid30" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*333.07px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.952517);" role="presentation">software</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid31" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid32" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*362.47px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.888688);" role="presentation">mos</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid33" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*375.82px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.879561);" role="presentation">t used</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid34" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid35" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*396.82px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.937188);" role="presentation">in medical applications</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid36" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid37" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*473.02px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.901263);" role="presentation">is</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid38" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid39" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*480.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*291.31px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.935546);" role="presentation">produced by </span></span><span id="page3R_mcid40" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.969267);" role="presentation">TreeAge</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid41" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*128.18px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif;" role="presentation">,</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid42" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*132.26px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.942177);" role="presentation">since it offers</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid43" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid44" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*177.89px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.933813);" role="presentation">many</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid45" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid46" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*197.69px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.932563);" role="presentation">advantages to the user. But, the cost of the Treeage software is relatively high.</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid47" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*454.42px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*300.55px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.964072);" role="presentation">Therefore in this</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid48" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.927866);" role="presentation">article two software alternatives are presented: Sto Tree</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid49" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid50" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*280.63px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.927152);" role="presentation">and</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid51" class="markedContent"></span><span id="page3R_mcid52" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*294.31px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.88554);" role="presentation">the zero cost ad</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid53" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*344.35px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif;" role="presentation">d</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid54" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*348.43px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif;" role="presentation">-</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid55" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*350.95px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*309.79px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.957184);" role="presentation">in package "markovchain" implemented in R. An</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid56" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*318.91px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.909639);" role="presentation">example of a cost</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid57" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*156.62px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*318.91px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif;" role="presentation">-</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid58" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*159.29px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*318.91px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.932854);" role="presentation">effectiveness analysis of two possible treatments for advanced cervical cancer, previously conducted with the</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid59" class="markedContent"> <span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*328.15px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.927157);" role="presentation">Treeage software, is re</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid60" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*173.21px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*328.15px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif;" role="presentation">-</span></span><span id="page3R_mcid61" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*175.85px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*328.15px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.916132);" role="presentation">analyzed with these two low cost software packages.</span></span> <span id="page3R_mcid63" class="markedContent"><span dir="ltr" style="left: calc(var(–scale-factor)*100.34px); top: calc(var(–scale-factor)*337.27px); font-size: calc(var(–scale-factor)*8.04px); font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(0.95059);" role="presentation">You can find a Spanish version of this paper in the following link: http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/lrkeller/publications</span></span></p>
Suggested Citation
Jiaru Bai, Cristina del Campo and L. Robin Keller (2023) “MARKOV CHAIN MODELS IN PRACTICE: A REVIEW OF LOW COST SOFTWARE OPTIONS”, Investigación Operacional, 38(1). Available at: https://revistas.uh.cu/invoperacional/article/view/4420 (Accessed: September 10, 2025).published journal article
Is the Journey to Work Explained by Urban Structure?
Urban Studies
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Author(s)
Abstract
Basic to several key issues in current urban economic theory and public policy is a presumption that local imbalances between employment and residential sites strongly influence people’s commuting patterns. We examine this presumption by finding the commuting pattern for the Los Angeles region in 1980 which would minimise average commuting time or distance, given the actual spatial distributions of job and housing locations. We find that the amount of commuting required by these distributions is far less than actual commuting, and that variations in required commuting across job locations only weakly explain variations in actual commuting. We conclude that other factors must be more important to location decisions than commuting cost, and that policies aimed at changing the jobs-housing balance will have only a minor effect on commuting.
Suggested Citation
Genevieve Giuliano and Kenneth A. Small (1993) “Is the Journey to Work Explained by Urban Structure?”, Urban Studies, 30(9), pp. 1485–1500. Available at: 10.1080/00420989320081461.policy brief
Evaluating Equity in Transportation and Hazard Preparedness Plans: A Multi-Level Governance Approach
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Areas of Expertise
Abstract
Environmental justice (EJ) principles are essential for addressing inequities in transportation and hazard preparedness; however, they are often applied in a fragmented manner. Historically, urban planning in the United States has created racial and economic divisions, particularly through policies like redlining and freeway construction that displaced communities of color. These practices have systematically and disproportionately exposed marginalized groups to environmental harms. The EJ movement has advocated for addressing these disparities through equity-focused policies. However, the integration of EJ principles into plans remains incomplete, with prior studies focusing on individual plans or jurisdictions, failing to consider broader governance systems and the need for equity to bridge multiple plan types. These challenges are compounded by the shift from centralized to decentralized governance, creating a fragmented landscape where different levels of government and departments operate with distinct priorities. Multi-level governance (MLG) creates both opportunities and challenges for equity-centered planning. While it enables state funding, regional planning, and local implementation to align, fragmented jurisdictions often leave transportation, hazard, and climate plans in silos. Intentional coordination is needed to embed EJ principles across all levels of planning. This analysis focuses on Los Angeles due to its overlapping jurisdictions, large transit system, and history of environmental injustice making it a critical test case for how MLG can both enable and constrain equity-centered planning. This policy brief is based on our evaluation of 16 climate action, racial equity, transportation, and hazard preparedness plans in Greater Los Angeles, which was systematically scored based on three existing EJ pillars: Recognition Justice, Procedural Justice, and Distributive Justice
Suggested Citation
Jeannine Marie Pearce, Nicola Ulibarri and Elisa Borowski (2025) Evaluating Equity in Transportation and Hazard Preparedness Plans: A Multi-Level Governance Approach. Policy Brief. Available at: https://ezid.cdlib.org/id/doi:10.7922/G28G8J3M (Accessed: September 16, 2025).conference paper
Effect of route choice models on estimation of travel time reliability under demand and supply variations
Proceedings, First International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability
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Author(s)
Suggested Citation
A. Chen, Z. Ji and W. W. Recker (2002) “Effect of route choice models on estimation of travel time reliability under demand and supply variations”, in Proceedings, First International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability. Kyoto.working paper
Specification Issues in Models of Population and Employment Growth
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Abstract
Spatial econometric adaptations of population and employment growth models have been used to study the employment impacts of urban rail transit (Bollinger and Ihlanfeldt, 1997), the links between urban and rural development (Henry, Barkley, and Bao, 1997; Schmitt and Henry, 2000), and causality between intra-metropolitan population and employment location (Boarnet, 1994b). Yet the literature has so far given limited attention to two specification issues that are fundamental to the performance of spatial econometric population and employment growth models. First, the weight matrix, which defines how geographic units of observation relate to one another, must be defined a priori, and alternative versions of the weight matrix have rarely been consistently compared. Second, most recent population-employment growth models are lagged adjustment models, yet the estimated lag parameters often imply that the system does not adjust to a long-run equilibrium, violating one of the maintained hypotheses of the lagged adjustment approach. This paper analyzes those three specification issues, and provides insight into both the validity of various econometric practices that have been common in recent literature and the stability of econometric population and employment growth models when typical assumptions and approaches are changed.