Phd Dissertation

CARTESIUS: A Cooperative Approach to Real-Time Decision Support for Multi-Jurisdictional Traffic Congestion Management

Publication Date

December 17, 1998

Author(s)

Abstract

This research describes an innovative distributed approach for the provision of real-time decision support to Transportation Management Center (TMC) operators for coordinated, multi-jurisdictional traffic congestion management on freeway and arterial networks. Coordinated responses among the agencies that share responsibilities for urban traffic management avoids the implementation of operations that may be conflicting or counter-productive.

A distributed software architecture, called CARTESIUS (Coordinated Adaptive Real-Time Expert System for Incident management in Urban Systems) was designed, developed and evaluated. CARTESIUS is composed of two interacting, real-time decision-support systems for TMC operator that are able to perform cooperative reasoning and resolve conflicts, for the analysis of non-recurring congestion and the formulation of suitable integrated control responses. The two agents support incident management operations for, respectively, a freeway and an adjacent arterial subnetwork. Each module interacts with a human operator in one of the agencies, is able to receive real-time traffic and control data, and provides the operator with control recommendations in response to the occurrence of incidents. The multi-decision making approach adopted by CARTESIUS reflects the spatial and administrative organization of traffic management agencies, providing a coordinated solution that attempts to satisfy all parties, preserves their own levels of authority, and reflects the inherent distribution of the decision-making power.

The structure of the distributed processing and the interaction between the agents is based on the Functionally Accurate, Cooperate (FA/C) paradigm, a distributed problem solving approach aimed at producing consistent global solutions even when complete and up-to-date information is not directly available to the agents, in order to reduce communication requirements and synchronization time delays.

The contribution of this research lies in demonstrating the validity of the assumption that satisficing control solutions can be efficiently obtained by relaxing the requirements that agents have shared access to all globally available information, and the application of theoretical principles of the FA/C paradigm to traffic control, through the development of CARTESIUS. The simulation-based validation of the system performance has demonstrated the effectiveness of such an approach in producing real-time, integrated traffic control solutions that reduce the adverse impact of incidents on traffic circulation, network-wide.

working paper

Searching for Policy Priorities in the Formulation of a Freight Transport Strategy: An Analysis of Freight Industry Attitudes

Publication Date

December 3, 1998

Author(s)

Abstract

An efficient and effective freight transport strategy can be aided by early professional contributions from key stakeholders. One broad group who have historically been given limited opportunity to influence the drafting of a freight strategy, are commercial road users and shippers who manufacture and distribute goods. Utilising a data set collected in Australia in 1996 from a sample of organizations involved directly and indirectly in road freight transportation, views were sought on road infrastructure changes, new road infrastructure, non-road infrastructure needs, and transport policies. An optimal scaling approach using non-linear canonical correlation is implemented to search for structural relationships between the underlying policy and infrastructure dimensions and the various industry categories. This framework provides a powerful mechanism for identifying differences among stakeholders in terms of their support for or opposition to specific policies. Results reveal the considerable differences in attitudes associated with the component parts of the freight industry.

research report

Section Related Measures of Traffic System Performance: Final Report

Publication Date

October 31, 1998

Abstract

This project describes a new set of advanced traffic surveillance techniques that are based on inductive vehicle waveforms and pattern recognition technology. Focus is on demonstrating and evaluating a new method for obtaining true selection related performance measures, such as section travel time and section density, for freeways. The report also discusses methods for the measurement of lane-by-lane traffic movement and specific origin/destination demands.

working paper

San Diego's I-15 Congestion Pricing Project: Preliminary Findings

Abstract

This paper presents the preliminary findings from the Phase I evaluation of the Interstate 15 (I-15) Congestion Pricing Project in San Diego. It is a three-year demonstration that allows single occupant vehicles (SOVs) to use the existing 1-15 high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes for a fee. In Phase I, program participants were charged a monthly fee for unlimited use of the I-15 HOV lanes. The primary objectives of the project are: (1) to maximize use of the HOV lanes; (2) to test whether allowing solo drivers to use the HOV lanes’ excess capacity can help relieve congestion on the main lanes; (3) to improve air quality; and (4) to fund new transit and HOV improvements in the I-15 corridor. 

San Diego State University (SDSU) is conducting an independent, multi-element evaluation of the project to assess its impacts. The study will consider the project’s progress in meeting its primary objectives and provide detailed insight into the affect of congestion pricing on the I-15 corridor. The project has the potential to contribute to the broader understanding of many practical aspects associated with the implementation of congestion pricing in metropolitan areas. It also supplies data for the evaluation of benefits, which is central to the discussion of equity in the context of congestion pricing. 

This paper provides an overview of the project status and preliminary findings presented in detail in 22 Phase I technical reports that address a range of topics such as traffic, travel behavior, and institutional issues. 

The results from the first year of operations are limited, but indicate the project’s relative success. The project appears to be meeting its main objectives. In particular, the total number of vehicles using the HOV lanes increased substantially. The increase is attributed to increased number of carpools as well as project participants. The level of service (LOS) in the HOV lanes has not been adversely affected; LOS C was maintained throughout Phase I. In addition, there was a slight reduction of overall traffic volumes on the main lanes. 

Public acceptance of the project was evident in Phase I. The program participants viewed it as a success. However, understanding of the project’s overall objectives was low among both the program participants and the public. The majority of 1-15 users thought the ExpressPass program was fair to I-15 main lane and HOV lane users. Finally, there was evidence of sensitivity to price increases, although price levels during Phase I were not high enough to deter demand for the program. 

working paper

Markets and regulatory hold-up problems

Publication Date

October 27, 1998

Author(s)

Abstract

Many regulatory programs such as environmental regulation are effective only if firms make irreversible investments that reduce the cost of compliance. A firm potentially subject to regulation may therefore behave strategically by not investing, thereby forcing the regulator to void the proposed regulation. We show that such incentives, which resemble a hold-up problem, may not be overcome when government�s only tool is the imposition of an emissions tax. The hold-up problem can be overcome by the issuance of tradeable permits. A time-consistent equilibrium exists with all firms investing and the government imposing regulations, even if no permits are traded and their market price is low. Indeed, an observation of no trade may indicate that pollution abatement is great.

working paper

The Demand for Transportation: Models and Applications

Publication Date

September 30, 1998

Author(s)

Abstract

This chapter describes how transportation demand is analyzed and what has been learned from doing so. We first present a selection of the most important transportation demand models, with an emphasis on disaggregate models because they have generally been the most successful in capturing essential features of travel behavior. We then show how the models have enriched our substantive knowledge of the demand for transportation, and discuss how they have been used to address important transportation policy issues.

book/book chapter

Project Evaluation

Publication Date

September 30, 1998

Author(s)

Abstract

Transportation policy making often requires evaluating a proposed discrete change, whether it be a physical investment or a new set of operating rules. Some proposals, like the rail tunnel under the English channel, are one-time capital investments with long-lasting effects. Others, like congestion pricing proposed for The Netherlands, require major behavioral and political groundwork.

Phd Dissertation

Use of vehicle signature analysis and lexicographic optimization for vehicle reidentification on freeways

Publication Date

September 12, 1998

Author(s)

Abstract

This dissertation presents the vehicle reidentification problem formulated as a lexicographic optimization problem. The lexicographic optimization formulation is a preemptive multi-objective formulation that combines goal programming, classification, and Bayesian analysis techniques. The details of field implementation and data collection design are also presented. The solution of the vehicle reidentification problem has the potential to yield reliable section measures such as travel times and densities, and enables the measurement of specific dynamic origin/destination demands as well as the development of new algorithms for ATMIS (Advanced Transportation Management and Information Systems) implementations of the approach using conventional surveillance infrastructure. Freeway inductive loop data from SR-24 in Lafayette, California, demonstrates that robust results can be obtained under different traffic flow conditions. A discussion is also presented of the application of section densities in a dynamic origin/destination demand estimation framework as an example of the usefulness of this approach. The use of existing surveillance infrastructure coupled with this approach could allow development of widespread applications in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS).

working paper

Benefits, Acceptance, and Marketability of Value-Priced Services: California's Route 91 Express Lanes

Abstract

Transportation professionals have always been interested in how travelers respond to different transportation options. A new application of congestion pricing offers the opportunity to extend such research to situations where travelers face a priced alternative. Travelers along State Route 91 (SR 91) in Southern California can now pay a time-varying fee in order to travel on a set of essentially congestion-free “Express Lanes” located in the median of a very congested preexisting freeway. For this study, we conduct a mail survey of such travelers to learn how they decide to use the free lanes or the toll lanes. We use the data to estimate route choice models and models that incorporate various types of real-time information about accidents, traffic conditions, and price levels into the route choice decision. This study provides new information about the acceptance of congestion pricing, the use of real-time information in making dynamic travel decisions, and individual travelers’ interests in forming carpools.

working paper

A Utility-Theory-Consistent System-of-Demand-Equations Approach to Household Travel Choice

Publication Date

August 31, 1998

Author(s)

Kara Kockelman

Abstract

Modeling personal travel behavior is complex, particularly when one tries to adhere closely to actual causal mechanisms while predicting human response to changes in the transport environment. There has long been a need for explicitly modeling the underlying determinant of travel – the demand for participation in out-of-home activities; and progress is being made in this area, primarily through discrete-choice models coupled with continuous-duration choices. However, these models tend to be restricted in size and conditional on a wide variety of other choices that could be modeled more endogenously.

This dissertation derives a system of demands for activity participation and other travel-related goods that is rigorously linked to theories of utility maximization. Two difficulties inherent in the modeling of travel – the discrete nature of many travel-related demands and the formal recognition of a time budget, not just a financial one – are dealt with explicitly. The dissertation then empirically evaluates several such demand systems, based on flexible specifications of indirect utility. The results provide estimates of activity generation and distribution and of economic parameters such as demand elasticities. Several hypotheses regarding travel behavior are tested, and estimates are made of welfare effects generated by changes in the travel environment.

The models presented here can be extended to encompass more disaggregate consumption bundles and stronger linkages between consumption of out-of-home activities and other goods. The flexibility and strong behavioral basis of the approach make it a promising new direction for travel demand modeling.