working paper

Smart Corridor Evaluation Plan: Conceptual Design

Publication Date

December 31, 1993

Author(s)

Gen Giuliano, James Moore, Martin Wachs

Abstract

This report presents the Conceptual Design Plan for evaluating the effectiveness of the Smart Corridor Demonstration Project. The specific objectives of this report are to: 1) develop a conceptual structure for the Smart Corridor evaluation, 2) define evaluation data requirements and collection procedures, and 3) select and/or develop data reduction and data analysis methodologies. Overall, the Smart Corridor is designed to obtain improved utilization of existing roadway facilities, both freeway and arterial, through the use of Advanced Traveler Information Systems ( ATIS) and Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS), through improved inter-agency coordination, and through better use of conventional traffic management strategies.

working paper

Modelling Worker Residence Distribution in the Los Angeles Region

Publication Date

November 30, 1993

Author(s)

Abstract

This paper examines the spatial pattern of worker residences with three different density functions: monocentric, polycentric, and dispersive. Analysis of the 1980 journey-to-work census data for the Los Angeles region reveals that the polycentric density function statistically explains the actual distribution better than the monocentric density function, but the dispersive density function fits best. These findings confirm a polycentric spatial pattern, and also imply that overall accessibility to employment opportunities is the primary determinant of residential location choices.

working paper

Network Connectivity and Price Convergency: Gas Pipeline Deregulation

Publication Date

November 30, 1993

Abstract

We use graph theoretic methods to model arbitrage on the evolving topology of the natural gas pipeline network following pipeline deregulation. We estimate models of spot prices over the network and show that the emergence, evolution and performance of natural gas pipelines brought about by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s policy of “Open Access”. Under open access, the balkanized and disconnected network of gas markets created by regulation became more strongly connected, transportation markets developed, and natural gas spot prices converged. The pace of these changes can be linked to the degree of openness and connectedness of the pipeline network; it took four years for the network to reach a critical level of connectivity to bring convergence to prices. By 1990, gas markets had become thick enough to dampen the effect of demand and supply shocks on prices at each point in the network.

working paper

High Occupancy / Toll Lanes: Phasing in Congestion Pricing a Lane at a Time

Publication Date

October 31, 1993

Abstract

A consensus is emerging among transportation economists that the best way to deal with freeway congestion is to charge for driving during peak hours. The main barrier to implementation is political: drastic change is politically unpopular. This paper proposes a way of overcoming the political obstacles by phasing in congestion pricing over a period of many years.

working paper

Clean or a Day: Troubles with California's Smog Check

Abstract

We have carefully reviewed “Evaluation of the California Smog Check Program and Recommendations for Program Improvements: Fourth Report to the Legislature.” Overall, we find it a thorough and competent presentation of the basic facts, though we disagree with the conclusions. Our major concern is one of perspective. It appears that the authors of the report are simply too close to the issue, too enmeshed in the details of implementation. We think it worthwhile to step back from the technical issues to take an overall view of the inspection and maintenance (I/M) program for reducing auto emissions.

working paper

Simulation of Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS) Strategies to Reduce Non-Recurring Congestion from Special Events

Abstract

The design and implementation of Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS) providing real-time enroute information to drivers should follow insightful analyses into the dynamics of driver decisions and the resulting traffic flow under information to prevent counter-intuitive and counter-productive results. An important yet often neglected aspect of this problem is the distribution of benefits both over the driver population and for different origins and destinations in the network. This paper presents modifications to and an application of DYNASMART (DYnamic Network Assignment Simulation Model for Advanced Road Telematics) for this problem. DYNASMART is a simulation framework for ATIS experiments which incorporates: 1) real-time traffic flow and control simulation, 2) dynamic network path processing, and 3) microscopic consideration of driver response to information. A boundedly-rational behavioral model is assumed for driver route-choice under non-prescriptive route information. The information strategies are based on multiple paths rather than a single shortest path. Initial paths of drivers were generated from dynamic equilibrium assignments using the CONTRAM program and used as input to DYNASMART. ATIS-equipped drivers change their paths based on a behavioral model (with stochastically assigned parameters) and provided information, while unequipped drivers change routes based on self-observation of traffic conditions. The application presented involves the evaluation of ATIS strategies to alleviate traffic congestion due to spectators leaving a major sports event at Anaheim Stadium. A dynamic traffic demand matrix was estimated from partial link-counts. Interesting insights are derived regarding the higher benefits from ATIS to drivers on congested parts of the network. Robustness of the benefits under various information supply strategies and behavioral scenarios are also discussed.

working paper

Competition and Prices in the Deregulated Gas Pipeline Network: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis

Publication Date

July 31, 1993

Author(s)

Abstract

This research uses multivariate cointegration analysis to assess the degree of competition in the U.S. natural gas industry following the move to open access pipeline transportation. The testing methodology allows multiple nodes in the pipeline network to be analyzed simultaneously and is based on recent advances by Johansen (1988, 1991) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) on estimation and hypothesis testing in multivariate cointegrated systems. Daily price data across the North American natural gas transmission grid are analyzed and the results indicate that the pattern of prices between production areas is consistent with allocative efficiency.

working paper

Real Costs of Transportation and Influence of Pricing Policies

Publication Date

July 31, 1993

Author(s)

Abstract

Sustainability of transportation depends on both behavior and technology. Behavior determines how much of various activities are undertaken; technology determines whether they are harmful to the environment. Policies can influence both: they provide behavior incentives, and they affect technological choices and guide technological change.

working paper

A Structural Model with Discrete-Choice Variables for Predicting Enroute Behavior under ATIS

Abstract

Increasing efforts in Advanced Traveler Information Systems has emphasized the need to develop more robust models of enroute driver behavior. The complexity in modeling driver behavior stems from the need to capture the day-to-day dynamics of choice, model diversion and active information acquisition, and account for individual preferences and needs. Previous papers by the authors discussed a conflict arousal methodology for modeling driver behavior in the presence of real-time information. It was posed that observed changes in enroute driver behavior, characterized by diversion or active information acquisition, are evoked through latent factors of conflict arousal and motivation. In-laboratory interactive simulation was used to collect enroute behavior data. This paper presents a structural equation approach for modeling enroute driver behavior and explaining causal factors of diversion and information acquisition as well as the interrelationship between these observed behaviors.