policy brief

COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Influenced Bus Ridership Recovery

Publication Date

January 1, 2024

Associated Project

Will Transit Ridership Ever Recover From COVID-19? A Case Study of Los Angeles

Author(s)

David Brownstone, Henry Bernal

Areas of Expertise

Public Transit, Shared Mobility, & Active Transportation

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Abstract

COVID-19 has had lasting effects on transit ridership, with the worst declines seen in high-income, better educated, urban neighborhoods. However, declines among immigrant and/or low-income households was well documented prior to the pandemic, as more gained access to private vehicles. This has created a unique challenge for transit agencies to bring riders back to transit in cases where they may have already switched to traveling by car or consciously chose to make fewer trips. To better understand ridership during the pandemic, we documented the recovery of bus ridership in Los Angeles County and its relationship with COVID-19 vaccinations between April and December 2021, before the Omicron COVID-19 wave. We then developed a statistical model that relates LA Metro bus ridership as a percentage of October 2019 levels with the percent of adults fully vaccinated by ZIP code. We tested whether the relationship between vaccinations and bus ridership varied by two events: first, the full reopening of businesses in California and second, the wave of COVID transmission caused by the subsequentDelta variant.

Suggested Citation

David Brownstone and Henry Bernal (2024) COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Influenced Bus Ridership Recovery. Policy Brief. UC ITS. Available at: https://doi.org/10.7922/g2k935wj.

conference paper

The California ATMS Testbed Research Program: An Overview

Proceedings, IVHS America Annual Conference

Publication Date

January 1, 1995

Author(s)

Will Recker

Suggested Citation

Wilfred W. Recker (1995) “The California ATMS Testbed Research Program: An Overview”, in Proceedings, IVHS America Annual Conference. Washington, D. C..

working paper

A Property Rights Framework for Transit Services

Publication Date

December 1, 1995

Author(s)

Daniel B. Klein, Adrian Moore

Working Paper

UCI-ITS-WP-95-22, UCTC 303

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Abstract

The paper shows how variations in systems of property rights explain diverse experiences of urban jitneys and buses. Scheduled bus service entails route specific investments and cultivation of a market. If these investments can be expropriated by interloping jitneys, scheduled service will be dissolved. Property rights in curbspace determine whether scheduled service will be preserved, and whether jitney services will co-exist. We analyze the dynamics of thick and thin transit markets, with and without curb rights. We develop a governance system of curb rights that would let bus operators appropriate their own investments in scheduled service, yet would avoid monopoly by letting jitneys and competing scheduled services operate along the same route. A property rights system dispenses with government ownership, franchise contracting, and regulation.

Suggested Citation

Daniel B. Klein and Adrian T. Moore (1995) A Property Rights Framework for Transit Services. Working Paper UCI-ITS-WP-95-22, UCTC 303. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/36f657t2.

research report

Evaluating the Impacts of Start-Up and Clearance Behaviors in a Signalized Network: A Network Fundamental Diagram Approach

Publication Date

April 1, 2019

Associated Project

Evaluating the Impacts of Start-Up and Clearance Behaviors in a Signalized Network: A Network Fundamental Diagram Approach

Author(s)

Wenlong Jin, Adrià Morales Fresquet

Areas of Expertise

Infrastructure Delivery, Operations, & Resilience Intelligent Transportation Systems, Emerging Technologies, & Big Data

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Abstract

Numerical simulations have shown that the network fundamental diagram (NFD) of a signalized network is significantly affected by the green ratio. An analytical approximation of the NFD has been derived from the link transmission model. However, the consistency between these approaches has not been established, and the impacts of other factors are still unrevealed. This research evalutes the impacts of start-up and clearance behaviors in a signalized network from a network fundamental diagram approach. Microscopic simulations based on Newell’s car-following model are used for testing the bounded acceleration (start-up) and aggressiveness (clearance) effects on the shape of the NFD in a signalized ring road. This new approach is shown to be consistent with theoretical results from the link transmission model, when the acceleration is unbounded and vehicles have the most aggressive clearance behaviors. This consistency validates both approaches; but the link transmission model cannot be easily extended to incorporate more realistic start-up or clearance behaviors. With the new approach, this project demonstrates that both bounded acceleration and different aggressiveness lead to distinct network capacities and fundamental diagrams. In particular, they lead to start-up and clearance lost times of several seconds; and these lost times are additive. Therefore, the important role that these behaviors play in the NFD shape is studied to reach a better understanding of how the NFD responds to changes. This will help with designing better start-up and clearance behaviors for connected and autonomous vehicles.

Suggested Citation

Wen-Long Jin and Adrià Morales Fresquet (2019) Evaluating the Impacts of Start-Up and Clearance Behaviors in a Signalized Network: A Network Fundamental Diagram Approach. Final Report. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/36v9c2ct (Accessed: October 11, 2023).

Related Publications

policy brief | Apr 2019

Evaluating the Impacts of Start-Up and Clearance Behaviors in a Signalized Network: A Network Fundamental Diagram Approach

Phd Dissertation

Zero Emission Shared-Use Autonomous Vehicles: A Deployment Construct and Associated Energy Grid and Environmental Impacts

Publication Date

December 31, 2019

Author(s)

Van Wifvat

Areas of Expertise

Public Transit, Shared Mobility, & Active Transportation Zero-Emission Vehicles & Low-Carbon Fuels

View Phd Dissertation

Abstract

For decades, the leading cause of death for American youth has been the car accident, and the largest source of domestic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and many Criteria Air Pollutants (CAPs) has been the transportation sector. The advent of the autonomous vehicle in combination with Battery-Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) presents an opportunity to transcend both pernicious challenges. In particular, the evolution of safer and more efficient autonomous (i.e., robotic) driving behavior via vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication, increased use of electric vehicles, and greater access to affordable and convenient shared (i.e., pooled) rides portend societal benefits including a significant reduction in energy demand and associated pollution. This dissertation evaluates the impact of Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles (SAEVs, “Saves”) on the California energy grid, GHG emissions, and CAPs. Vehicle-centric impacts (i.e., efficiency changes due to vehicle design and driving behavior) are measured using a vehicle design tool together with a microscopic traffic simulation model to (1) design prototype SAEVs, and (2) measure their energy efficiency for standard and eco-driving scenarios and an array of performance characteristics (e.g., different electric drivetrains, various communication protocols, etc.). Fleet-centric impacts (i.e., changes to vehicle allocation and usage) are measured using ArcGIS with a Caltrans travel demand model dataset to allocate and size SAEV stations, where SAEVs recharge/refuel and are sent to serve nearby trips in a hypothetical SAEV-deployment construct. The Holistic Energy Grid modelling tool (HiGRID) is used to measure SAEV impacts on the California electric grid and grid GHG and CAPs. The Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation Model (GREET) is used to measure corresponding transportation sector GHG and CAP impacts. Vehicle-centric energy impacts from SAEV-enabled eco-driving and platooning averaged net efficiency improvements of approximately 6-18%. Fleet-centric impacts include VMT changes from -11% to +36%, largely depending on ridesharing. Depending on SAEV design and operation, over 375,000 metric tons of annual CO2-equivalent GHG emissions could be reduced by adopting the proposed SAEV-deployment construct in lieu of the projected conventionally-driven vehicle fleet. Corresponding CAP impacts include a net reduction of over 250 metric tons of annual NOx emissions.

Suggested Citation

VAN THOMAS WIFVAT (2019) Zero Emission Shared-Use Autonomous Vehicles: A Deployment Construct and Associated Energy Grid and Environmental Impacts. PhD Dissertation. UC Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5398t15h.

conference paper

Performance of artificial neural networks for incident detection in ITS

TRANSPORTATION CONGRESS: CIVIL ENGINEERS - KEY TO THE WORLD'S INFRASTRUCTURE, PROCEEDINGS OF THE 1995 CONFERENCE, VOLS 1 AND 2

Publication Date

January 1, 1995

Author(s)

Baher Abdulhai, Stephen Ritchie

Suggested Citation

B Abdulhai and SG Ritchie (1995) “Performance of artificial neural networks for incident detection in ITS”, in . Lall, BK and Jones, DL (ed.) TRANSPORTATION CONGRESS: CIVIL ENGINEERS - KEY TO THE WORLD'S INFRASTRUCTURE, PROCEEDINGS OF THE 1995 CONFERENCE, VOLS 1 AND 2. AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS, pp. 227–238.

research report

Analysis of Activity-travel Patterns and Tour Formation of Transit Users [Research Brief]

Publication Date

April 1, 2021

Author(s)

Michael McNally, Rezwana Rafiq

View research report

Abstract

The complexity of travel behavior has evolved as travelers respond to varying activity demands and the changing supply environment, measured by congestion, cost, and emerging technologies. Complexity in travel behavior is often manifested by an increasing tendency to chain several activities within a tour to minimize total travel time and the number of trips, leading travelers to seek more flexible travel modes to complete their complex travel demands.

Suggested Citation

Michael G McNally and Rezwana Rafiq (2021) Analysis of Activity-travel Patterns and Tour Formation of Transit Users [Research Brief]. researchBrief. Available at: https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/67954 (Accessed: October 11, 2023).

published journal article

Bargaining Unit Structure and Organizational Outcomes

Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society

Publication Date

January 1, 1981

Author(s)

James Perry, Harold Angle

View published journal article

Suggested Citation

James L. Perry and Harold L. Angle (1981) “Bargaining Unit Structure and Organizational Outcomes”, Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, 20(1), pp. 47–59. Available at: 10.1111/j.1468-232X.1981.tb00181.x.

published journal article

Navigation with cellular CDMA Signals—Part II: Performance analysis and experimental results

IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing

Publication Date

April 1, 2018

Author(s)

Joe Khalife, Zaher Kassas

View published journal article

Suggested Citation

Joe Khalife and Zaher M. Kassas (2018) “Navigation with cellular CDMA Signals—Part II: Performance analysis and experimental results”, IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 66(8), pp. 2204–2218. Available at: 10.1109/tsp.2018.2799166.

published journal article

PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING NATIONAL MARKET AND TOTAL SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF NEW SYSTEMS OF URBAN TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Research Record

Publication Date

January 1, 1972

Author(s)

Eugene T. Canty, Thomas Golob

Abstract

This paper presents a general procedure for determining the potential national market and total socioeconomic and environmental impacts for an urban transportation system concept that can be considered for implementation in a large number of urban areas. The procedure involves the following closely interrelated steps: (a) statistical classification of all metropolitan areas into relatively homogeneous groups on the basis of their transportation requirements; (b) selection of the most representative area in each group; (c) performance of analytical case studies in each representative area in order to synthesize the optimal system design for that area and evaluate the impacts on user and nonuser population stratifications; (d) statistical analyses of the differences among areas within the same group; (e) performance of sensitivity analyses of each case study guided by these difference analyses; (f) extensions of the results of the case studies to the other areas in each group through the use of the sensitivity and difference analyses; and (g) aggregation of the market estimates for all metropolitan areas and of the total impacts for the country as a whole by user and nonuser population stratifications. Specific methods are given for many of the steps in the procedure, and guidelines are presented for some of the more traditional planning tasks such as case study analyses

Suggested Citation

Eugene T. Canty and Thomas F. Golob (1972) “PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING NATIONAL MARKET AND TOTAL SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF NEW SYSTEMS OF URBAN TRANSPORTATION”, Transportation Research Record [Preprint], (399).