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Sponsor: Caltrans

Real Option-Based Procurement for Transportation Services

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 1, 2007 - July 31, 2009

Principal Investigator

Amelia Regan

Project Team

Sarah Aly, Matthew Nguyen, Pruttipong Apivatanagul, Mei-Ting (May) Tsai, Miyuan Zhao, Ying Jun Chow, Jean-Daniel Saphores, Jiana-Fu (Jeff) Wang, Rex Chen

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5894
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Freight, Logistics, & Supply Chain

Team Departmental Affiliations

Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Science

Project Summary

This research investigates how to model freight transportation flexibility using the theory of real options (Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). In the practice of adopting lean and demand-responsive logistics systems, orders are required to be delivered rapidly, accurately and reliably, even under demand uncertainty. These tougher demands on the industry motivate the need to introduce new instruments to manage transportation service contracts. One possibility, which has begun to attract attention, is to use real options to hedge transportation capacity and cost volatility. To date, no published research has specifically focused on applying real options in the trucking industry even though this is the dominant freight transportation mode. Our research proposes a real option based method of procuring trucking services. Research activities will include: 1) understanding the conditions for the emergence of a market for truckload options based on experiences in other transportation industries; 2) modeling truckload rate dynamics and investigating pricing formulas for truckload options; and 3) collecting data and case studies for selected representative transportation origin-destination pairs. 

Related Publications

published journal article | Oct 2009

Freight Transportation Derivatives Contracts: State of the Art and Future Developments
Transportation Journal

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Phd Dissertation | Jan 2008

Real option-based procurement for transportation services

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working paper | Sep 2008

Freight Transportation Contracting Under Uncertainty

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The Personal Travel Assistant (PTA): Measuring the Dynamics of Human Travel Behavior

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 1, 2007 - July 31, 2009

Principal Investigator

Will Recker

Project Team

Tuan Nguyen, Yosuke Arai, Rina Dechter, Jee Eun (Jamie) Kang, Craig Rindt

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5886
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

Team Departmental Affiliations

Civil and Environmental Engineering, Information and Computer Science

Related Publications

research report | Aug 2010

The personal travel assistant (PTA): Measuring the dynamics of human travel behavior

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Costs and Effectiveness of Lower-Speed, Environmentally-Friendly Urban Highway Designs

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 1, 2007 - July 31, 2009

Principal Investigator

Kenneth Small

Project Team

Chen Ng, Chun Kon (Cecilia) Kim, Kent Hymel, Hsin Hsu, Nilopa Shah

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5897
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Infrastructure Delivery, Operations, & Resilience Safety, Public Health, & Mobility Justice

Team Departmental Affiliation

Economics

Related Publications

conference paper | Jan 2008

Tradeoffs among free-flow speed, capacity, cost, and environmental footprint in highway design
University of California Transportation Center Annual Conference, Los Angeles

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Online Freeway Corridor Deployment of Anonymous Vehicle Tracking for Real-Time Traffic Performance Measurement

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

June 1, 2008 - December 31, 2009

Principal Investigator

Stephen Ritchie

Project Team

Sarah Hernandez, Hang Liu, Andre (Yeow Chern) Tok, Jin Choi, Justin Moy, Soyoung (Iris) You, Gunwoo Lee, Shin-Ting (Cindy) Jeng

Sponsor & Award Number

Caltrans: 65A0279

Areas of Expertise

Intelligent Transportation Systems, Emerging Technologies, & Big Data

Team Departmental Affiliation

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Related Publications

research report | Sep 2010

Online Freeway Corridor Deployment of Anonymous Vehicle Tracking for Real Time Traffic Performance

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Web-Based Training for Caltrans Personnel

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

June 28, 2007 - November 30, 2009

Principal Investigator

Will Recker

Sponsor & Award Number

Caltrans: 72A0057
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Team Departmental Affiliation

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Visual PFE Software Enhancements for Planning Applications in Small-Sized Communities

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

June 1, 2008 - November 30, 2010

Principal Investigator

Will Recker

Sponsor & Award Number

Caltrans: 65A0276

Areas of Expertise

Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

Team Departmental Affiliation

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Project Summary

The goal of this project is to enhance existing Visual PFE (Development of a Path Flow Estimator for Deriving Steady-State and Time-Dependent Origin-Destination Trip Tables) and adapt it to perform planning applications in small-sized communities (especially in rural areas) where the limited planning resource hinder the development and applications of 4-step models.

Related Publications

published journal article | Nov 2014

Path flow estimator for planning applications in small communities
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

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Drivers’ Asynchronous Day-to-Day Route Choices with Information Provision

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2010 - March 31, 2012

Principal Investigator

Wenlong Jin

Project Team

Josep Barberillo Nualart, Hao Yang, Qi-Jian Gan

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: 7491
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Intelligent Transportation Systems, Emerging Technologies, & Big Data

Team Departmental Affiliation

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Project Summary

With the diffusion of information and communication technologies into the transportation sector, more traffic information will be available to drivers. In an advanced traveler information system, interactions among road networks, drivers, and traffic information could impact safety, efficiency, environmental, and other characteristics of the overall transportation system. In this project, we propose a new modeling framework to systematically study how information provision would impact drivers' day-to-day route choice decisions. In this framework, individual drivers have heterogeneous decision intervals and how drivers respond to different information provision schemes. With simulations and theoretical investigations, we will study stability and efficiency of the overall transportation system under different demand levels, information provision schemes, and distribution of drivers' decision intervals. This project could lead to more insights on impacts of information provision on drivers' behaviors in transportation networks. Through this project, we will develop a set of theoretical, simulation, and experimental tools for studying drivers' route choice behaviors. The developed tools and gained insights could be helpful for understanding how such new technologies as inter-vehicle communications can help reduce congestion and emissions through proper route guidance.

A Dynamic Normative Model of Conditions for Viability of Alternative Fuel Vehicles

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2010 - March 31, 2012

Principal Investigator

Will Recker

Project Team

Jee Eun (Jamie) Kang, Mahdieh Allahviranloo, Thi Bich Thuy (Vanessa) Luong, Daji Yuan

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: 7492
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Zero-Emission Vehicles & Low-Carbon Fuels

Team Departmental Affiliation

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Project Summary

With California Air Resources Board's legislation of Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) and Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates in 1990, and with California legislative acts AB 32 and SB 375 more recently, there have been positive expectations for Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) adoption. In this project we present an approach for addressing the demand for AFVs by explicitly incorporating dynamics and normative influences in a utility maximizing framework. Rather than attempting to predict the dynamics of demand associated with any particular AFV, the project will focus on identifying stable "final" states that are likely to be achievable vis-a-vis assumed vehicle characteristics , supply environment, and normative influences. Put simply, we ask the question "Under what circumstances would the competition among the various alternative fuel alternatives lead to a stable equilibrium in which those vehicles have a certain share of the market." The main objective of this project is to assess the conditions under which certain classes of AFVs can be expected to find at least a niche market within the fleet of vehicles purchased by consumers. In attacking this problem, we first attempt to quantify the role of the so-called "bandwagon" effect evident in consumers' adoption of the Toyota Prius. Then, incorporating this effect, together with supply-side conditions related to the refueling of AFVs, into a dynamic demand model, we seek to identify conditions leading to possible stable equilibria in which AFVs (or a subset of such AFVs) are significantly represented in the vehicle fleet. This assessment the dynamics of AFV adoption possibilities will provide a benchmark that will assist in determining the potential impacts of future AFV penetration into the automobile market.

Affordable Housing in Transportation Corridors – Built Environment, Accessibility, & Air Pollution Implications of Near Roadway Residential Locations

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2010 - March 31, 2012

Principal Investigator

Doug Houston

Project Team

Dongwoo Yang, Gavin Ferguson, Nicholas Fung, Wei Li, Jun Wu, Janet Cutler

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: 7488
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

Team Departmental Affiliations

School of Public Health, Urban Planning and Public Policy

Project Summary

Near-roadway areas are important sites for infill affordable housing. These areas at times have compact, mixed-use characteristics that could be associated with reduced auto dependency and more active travel and transit use. Integrated land use and transportation planning for these areas offer the potential of helping reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but near-roadway smart growth strategies could exacerbate air pollution exposures since vehicle-related air pollutants and related adverse health effects are highly localized near major roadways. The proposed research will evaluate the distribution of affordable housing projects in Southern California which have received support from the Housing Opportunities for People Everywhere (HOPE VI) and the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) programs in relation to built environment and transportation resources and near-roadway air pollutant hazards in order to improve affordable housing site selection and design criteria. We will also use portable global positioning systems (GPS) and pollution tracking technologies to measure the travel behavior and air pollution exposure of residents of HOPE VI projects across transportation microenvironments and near-roadway locations in goods movement corridors. The resulting highly-revolved activity/exposure profiles will support the development of more effective land use, housing and transportation policies to mitigate near-roadway air pollution hazards for diverse and low-income communities.

Tour-Based and Activity-Based Modeling of Clean Trucks at Southern California Ports

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2010 - March 31, 2012

Principal Investigator

Stephen Ritchie

Project Team

Soyoung (Iris) You, Miyuan Zhao, Gunwoo Lee

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: 7489
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Freight, Logistics, & Supply Chain Zero-Emission Vehicles & Low-Carbon Fuels

Team Departmental Affiliation

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Project Summary

The San Pedro Bay Ports (SPBP) of Los Angeles and Long Beach in Southern California represent one of the major container port complexes in the world, contributing very significantly to both Southern California and national economies. However, projected SPBP growth and the associated economic benefits are threatened by negative externalities of port operations such as increasing traffic congestion, air pollution, and adverse health impacts in the local community. Widespread concerns about these problems caused directly by freight movements have led to measures to mitigate traffic congestion and air quality in the SPBP area. However, forecast freight demand utilizing these strategies has largely been estimated by conventional four-step planning models, as used for passenger transportation. Such models cannot adequately capture the complex structure and behavior of freight movements, and advances in logistics and information technology. This research will explore and develop more behaviorally-oriented tour-based and activity-based models of SPBP drayage truck movements, using GPS data. Expected results include new and improved insights into the spatial and temporal operations of port trucks, contributions to the port-related component of urban freight modeling, as well as to the evaluation of traffic and environmental impacts of SPBP operating policies and air pollution mitigation strategies.

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