policy brief

What Challenges Can Arise from Coordinating Housing Development with Transportation?

Abstract

More systematic coordination between transportation and housing development is increasingly recognized as a promising strategy for creating more sustainable communities. One approach is to encourage higher density affordable housing developments near transit or in similarly transportation-efficient areas, such as locations with low vehicle miles traveled (VMT). However, little is known about how transportation access should be considered in guiding housing development, what challenges can arise from coordinating housing development with transportation, and what the state can do to better deal with these challenges and achieve more equitable residential densification.

This brief examines equity issues and other challenges that may arise in pursuing transportation-informed housing development. Specifically, it touches on the potential impacts of Senate Bill 743, which made it easier to build more housing in low VMT locations by shifting the way traffic impacts from new housing development are evaluated under the California Environmental Quality Act. It also explores ways to achieve more inclusive development in non-rail transit areas which have received less attention compared to rail transit areas.

research report

Assessing the Potential for Densification and VMT Reduction in Areas without Rail Transit Access

Abstract

While transportation infrastructure and efficiency should inform where to build more housing, little is known about how housing allocation and development processes can be coordinated more systematically with transportation. To date, transportation-housing coordination has often relied on the densification of areas near rail transit stations, putting heavy burdens on these locations and their residents. Much less attention has been paid to how densification can be achieved in a more equitable manner by encompassing other sites.

This report directs attention to non-rail locations, specifically low vehicle miles traveled (VMT) areas and bus corridors, and examines the challenges that can arise in promoting densification more broadly. It shows that data uncertainties can make it challenging to identify low VMT locations and that prioritizing only low VMT locations for residential development may have limited effectiveness in expanding housing opportunities in high opportunity areas. The report further explores ways to achieve more inclusive densification of non-rail transit areas and highlights the importance of anti-displacement strategies.

research report

Efficient Mobility Portfolio schemes for Integrated, Intermodal, and Incentivized Shared Transportation

policy brief

Transit Investments are Having an Impact on Land Use Beyond the Half-Mile Mark

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in transit-
oriented development (TOD) and other transit-centered
initiatives. It has been widely presumed that transit investment
can significantly contribute to curbing sprawl and creating
a more compact (and thus more sustainable) pattern of
urban land use, while providing a broader range of travel
options. However, little is known about how investments in
the public transit system modify urban land use patterns and
the geographical extent of impacts. Prior research tends to
assume transit lines and stations are homogeneous and have
similar impacts without careful consideration of development
history, service quality, or other variations. In addition, prior
research and current practice often assume transit impacts
are concentrated within a half-mile, which has limited the
understanding of how transit investments impact the broader
vicinity.

MS Thesis

A Direct Demand Model for Commuter Rail Ridership in the San Francisco Bay Area

Abstract

This thesis documents the development of a direct travel demand model for commuter rail in the San Francisco Bay Area. A direct demand model simultaneously estimates trip generation and attraction, which for this thesis would be trips between an origin-destination pair of stations. In the model, the number of trips assigned to an origin-destination pair of stations is dependent on land use characteristics at the origin and destination stations in combination with travel time on the network during congested peak periods and via transit. The model uses a multiplicative direct demand model to estimate ordinary least square regression parameters for the origin-destination trips. From the model form, the resultant estimated regression parameters are elasticities, and as such, can be used to postulate the effects of the selected land use characteristics and network travel times upon the number of trips made. At both the origin and destination, the location of the station within the central business districts of the San Francisco Bay region had the largest effect on trip generation and attraction. Higher employment density at the destination and a larger number of workers per household at the origin had a positive effect on trips, while the total number of industrial workers at the destination and an increased number of two car households had a negative effect on trips. Longer travel times on transit appeared to have a positive effect on trips, yet longer travel times in congested peak periods appeared to have a negative effect on trips.

MS Thesis

Supply-demand forecasting for a ride-hailing system

Abstract

Ride-hailing or Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) such as Uber, Lyft and Didi Chuxing are gaining increasing market share and importance in many transportation markets. To estimate the efficiency of these systems and to help them meet the needs of riders, big data technologies and algorithms should be used to process the massive amounts of data available to improve service reliability. The model developed predicts the gap between rider demands and driver supply in a given time period and specific geographic area using data from Didi Chuxing, the dominant ride-hailing company in China. The data provided includes car sharing orders, point of interest (POI), traffic, and weather information. A passenger calls a ride (makes a request) by entering the place of origin and destination and clicking “Request Pickup” on the Didi phone based application. A driver answers the request by taking the order. Our training data set contains three consecutive weeks of data in 2016, for large Chinese city which is referred to as City M. Though the training set is relatively small when compared to the whole of Didi’s ride sharing market, it is large enough so that patterns can be discovered and generalized. These data were made available to researchers and entrepreneurs by Didi after removal of some identifying information. 

research report

Transit Investment Impacts on Land Use Beyond the Half-Mile Mark

Abstract

This project examines the impacts of light rail transit investments on broader vicinity areas in Los Angeles County. This project found that the land use impacts of public transit investments are not necessarily confined to the half-mile boundary around station areas, although substantial variation exists by transit line.  While the areas beyond the half-mile mark were often excluded from conventional transit-oriented planning processes, these areas show a distinct pattern of land use transformation. Areas beyond the half-mile mark had a higher rate of development for several urban purposes, particularly after a few years have elapsed since the opening of nearby transit lines/stations.

working paper

Johnny Walks to School - Does Jane? Sex Differences in Children's Active Travel to School

Abstract

Communities are traditionally built with one transportation mode and user in mind—the adult automobile driver. Recently, however, there has been an international focus on the trip to school as an opportunity to enhance children’s independent active travel. Several factors must be considered when designing programs to promote walking and bicycling. This paper examined the influence of child sex on caregivers’ decisions about travel mode choice to school.

Caregivers of children in grades three to five from ten California Safe Routes to School communities were surveyed on their child’s normal travel mode to school and factors that determined travel decisions. Results indicate that the odds of walking and bicycling to school are 40 percent lower in girls than boys; however, this relationship is significantly moderated by the caregiver’s own walking behavior. The findings suggest that programs that focus on increasing children’s active travel to school should consider multiple influences on health behavior, including the neighborhood physical activity of parents.

working paper

Transit-Oriented Development in San Diego County: Incrementally Implementing a Comprehensive Idea

Abstract

While transit-oriented development (TOD) has become an increasingly popular planning idea, very few studies have examined how localities plan for and implement transit oriented projects. This paper helps fill that gap by studying the TOD implementation process near stations on the oldest of the current generation of light rail lines – the San Diego Trolley. Interviews with planning directors in the region, supplemented by zoning data, archival research, and inspection of station-area land use, all suggest that TOD is a niche market in the region. There are several barriers which have constrained TOD implementation in San Diego County. TOD projects have been pursued most aggressively in cases where those barriers are less severe or do not apply. Overall, we argue that each city, while being sympathetic to regional rail goals, works within a framework of local goals and constraints. The net result is regional TOD implementation which resembles the incremental model of policy-making first popularized by Lindblom (1959). One implication of this is that a comprehensive reshaping of station-area land use will, at best, take years to be realized.

working paper

L.A. Story: A Reality Check for Transit-Based Housing

Abstract

An increasingly influential planning strategy for leveraging rail transit is high-density residential development near rail stations, or ‘Transit-Based Housing’. Proponents argue such projects will get more people onto trains, reduce developers’ expenses, and lower commuting costs, housing prices, and air pollution in the bargain. While most of the literature has addressed the merit of such projects, this paper considers a separate question: Whatever virtues transit-based housing may have, what are its prospects?

We find that transit-based housing faces a much steeper uphill battle than the conventional wisdom suggests. Cities’ parochial fiscal and economic interests appear to conflict with transit-based housing in several fundamental respects, a view strongly supported by a behavioral analysis of zoning data for all 232 existing and proposed Southern California rail transit stations. Municipalities behave as if they prefer to use rail transit stations for economic rather than residential development, suggesting that transit oriented planning strategies would profit form more attention to their local fiscal and economic benefits.