policy brief

Transportation Plans: Their Informational Content and Use Patterns in Southern California

published journal article

A vehicle ownership and utilization choice model with endogenous residential density

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of residential density on households’ vehicle type and usage choices using the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). Attempts to quantify the effect of urban form on households’ vehicle choice and utilization often encounter the problem of sample selectivity. Household characteristics that are unobservable to the researchers might determine simultaneously where to live, what vehicles to choose, and how much to drive them. Unless this simultaneity is modeled, any relationship between residential density and vehicle choice may be biased. This paper extends the Bayesian multivariate ordered probit and tobit model developed in Fang (2008) to treat local residential density as endogenous. The model includes equations for vehicle ownership and usage in terms of number of cars, number of trucks (vans, sports utility vehicles, and pickup trucks), miles traveled by cars, and miles traveled by trucks. We carry out policy simulations that show that an increase in residential density has a negligible effect on car choice and utilization, but slightly reduces truck choice and utilization. The largest impact we find is a -.4 arc elasticity of truck fuel use with respect to density. We also perform an out-of-sample forecast using a holdout sample to test the robustness of the model.

published journal article

Investigation of roadside fine particulate matter concentration surrounding major arterials in five Southern Californian cities

Abstract

The built environment surrounding arterials affects the dispersion of vehicular emissions in urban areas, modifying the potential risks to public health. In order to study the influence of urban morphometry on flow and dispersion of vehicular fine particulate matter emissions, in the summer of 2008 field measurements were performed in major arterials located in five Southern Californian cities with different building geometries. In each city, local mean wind, turbulence, virtual temperature, roadside DustTrak Fine Particles (DTFP) concentration, and traffic flow data were collected in 2-hr measurement periods during morning and evening rush hours and lighter midday traffic, over a period of 3 days. The calculated Monin–Obukhov length, L, suggests that near-neutral and slightly unstable conditions were present at both street and roof levels. The nondimensional forms of turbulent wind and temperature fluctuations show that the data at street level within the urban canopy can be represented using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. Generalized additive models were applied to analyze the impact of meteorological and traffic-related variables on fine particle concentrations at street level. Compared to other variables, urban-scale background concentrations were the most important variables in all five models. The results confirmed that turbulent mixing in urban areas dominated the variation of roadside particle concentrations regardless of urban geometry. The distance from the local sites to the nearby monitoring stations affected model performance when urban-scale concentrations were used to predict middle-scale concentrations by generalized additive models (GAMs). A radius of influence for background concentrations was 6–10 km. There were also relationships between concentration and other variables affecting the local components of the concentrations, such as wind direction, sensible heat flux, and vertical wind fluctuation, although the influences were much weaker.

published journal article

Fine particulate concentrations on sidewalks in five Southern California cities

Abstract

This research provides an exploratory examination of the factors associated with fine particle concentrations in intersection and sidewalk microenvironments in five study areas in the Los Angeles region. The study areas range from low-density, auto-oriented development patterns to dense urban areas with mid- and high-rise buildings. Average concentrations of FPDT (fine particle concentrations measured with DustTrak Aerosol Monitors) ranged from about 20 to 70 μg m−3 across study areas during stationary and mobile (walking) monitoring in morning, midday, and evening periods. Results suggest that fine particle concentrations are highly variable on urban sidewalks. A regression analysis shows that concentrations are associated with traffic and the proximate built environment characteristics after accounting for meteorological factors, time of day, and location in the region. Regressions show higher concentrations were associated with lower wind speeds and higher temperatures, higher adjacent passenger vehicle traffic, higher ambient concentrations, and street canyons with buildings of over five stories. Locations in street canyons with 2–5 story buildings and with more paving and open space had lower concentrations after accounting for other factors. The associations with traffic and built environment variables explained a small amount of the variation in FPDT concentrations, suggesting that future research should examine the relative role of localized traffic and built environment characteristics compared to regional ambient concentrations and meteorology.

research report

Fine Particulate Concentrations Near Arterial Streets: The Influence of Building Placement and Wind Flow

Abstract

This paper provides preliminary evidence that the placement of buildings influences the concentration of fine particulates by altering wind flow. The authors collected measurements of fine particulate concentration, wind speed, wind direction, and traffic levels around five Southern California arterials selected to represent a range of building densities. In some cases the difference in average concentrations between opposite sides of the street was on the order of 10 μg/m3. In most cases the concentration was higher on the upwind side of the street, where the wind wakes of buildings limit the dispersion of particulates. Although this work is exploratory in nature, it reveals that fine particulate concentrations can vary even within a single city block, a scale finer than those used in current policy models. Given the trend towards infill development and densification in many places, this is an important topic that warrants further research to more fully understand the influence of the built environment on air quality.

research report

An Activity-Based Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Energy and Emissions Using One-Day Travel Data

Abstract

With the success of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) in the automobile market, Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are emerging as the next evolution of this attractive alternative. PHEV market penetration is expected to lead to lower gasoline consumption and less emission. The main objective of this research is to assess PHEVs’ energy profile impacts based on simulation of vehicles used in activity and travel patterns drawn from the 2000-2001 California Statewide Household Travel Survey. Simulations replicating reported continuous one day data are used to generate realistic energy impact assessment of PHEV market penetration.
A secondary objective is to estimate the decreased gasoline consumption and increased electricity demand in California. This will involve testing various scenarios involving battery charging to develop policies and strategies to mitigate the recharging demands placed on the grid during periods of peak consumption.

published journal article

Development of an Estimation Procedure for an Activity-Based Travel Demand Model

Abstract

In this article, we implement an estimation procedure for a particular mathematical programming activity-based model to estimate the relative importance of factors associated with spatial and temporal interrelationships among the out-of-home activities that motivate a household’s need or desire to travel. The method uses a genetic algorithm to estimate coefficient values of the utility function, based on a particular multidimensional sequence alignment method to deal with the nominal, discrete attributes of the activity/travel pattern (e.g., which household member performs which activity, which vehicle is used, sequencing of activities), and a time sequence alignment method to handle temporal attributes of the activity pattern (e.g., starting and ending time of each activity and/or travel). The estimation procedure is tested on data drawn from a well-known activity/travel survey.

published journal article

A mathematical programming formulation of the household activity rescheduling problem