published journal article

Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect

The Energy Journal

Publication Date

January 1, 2007

Author(s)

Kenneth Small, Kurt Van Dender

View published journal article

Abstract

We estimate the rebound effect for motor vehicles, by which improved fuel efficiency causes additional travel, using a pooled cross section of US states for 1966-2001. Our model accounts for endogenous changes in fuel efficiency, distinguishes between autocorrelation and lagged effects, includes a measure of the stringency of fuel-economy standards, and allows the rebound effect to vary with income, urbanization, and the fuel cost of driving. At sample averages of variables, our simultaneous-equations estimates of the short- and long-run rebound effect are 4.5% and 22.2%. But rising real income caused it to diminish substantially over the period, aided by falling fuel prices. With variables at 1997-2001 levels, our estimates are only 2.2% and 10.7%, considerably smaller than values typically assumed for policy analysis. With income and starting fuel efficiency at 1997-2001 levels and fuel prices 58 percent higher, the estimates are still only 3.1% and 15.3%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

Kenneth A. Small and Kurt Van Dender (2007) “Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect”, The Energy Journal, 28(1), pp. 25–52. Available at: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No1-2.

conference paper

Prioritization, inventory planning and budgeting for road management resources: A case study of south Korea

Proceedings of the 94th annual meeting of the transportation research board

Publication Date

January 1, 2015

Author(s)

Choong Heon Yang, In Su Kim, Amelia Regan

Abstract

Over the past three years the authors have extended their earlier work developing multicriteria decision making tools using Analytic Hierarchy Process methods to transportation systems management to several related case studies in South Korea. With access to key historical data and the cooperation of important government agencies, the authors have developed new methodologies for determining how equipment should be shared among neighboring agencies; and how equipment inventories and purchase costs should be determined on a year to year basis; how resource allocation decisions related to road based environmental sensor stations should be addressed; and how bicycle route construction and improvement priorities should established. The development of these tools has been documented in several recent papers. In this paper the authors briefly describe these tools, discuss their use these related projects fit together into an overall road management framework. The authors’ hope is that this research can help to establish a novel road management framework that can incorporate the desires of multiple public and private sector stakeholders.

Suggested Citation

Choong Heon Yang, In Su Kim and Amelia C. Regan (2015) “Prioritization, inventory planning and budgeting for road management resources: A case study of south Korea”, in Proceedings of the 94th annual meeting of the transportation research board, p. 13p.

research report

Considering Risk-Taking Behavior in Travel Time Reliability

Publication Date

September 6, 2005

Associated Project

Considering Risk-Taking Behavior in Travel Time Reliability

Author(s)

Will Recker, Younshik Chung, Ji Young Park, Lesley Wang, Anthony Chen, Zhaowang Ji, Henry Liu, Matthew Horrocks, Jun-Seok Oh

Final Report

UCB-ITS-PRR-2005-3

Areas of Expertise

Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

View research report

Abstract

Travel time variability is increasingly being recognized as a major factor influencing travel decisions and, consequently, as an important performance measure in transportation management. In this research project, we examine a number of questions related to travel time variability: How should travel time variability be quantified at both the section level as well as at the route level?; How do travelers value travel time and its reliability?; How much does the travel time reliability contribute to travelers’ route choices?; How much variation is there in travelers’ preferences regarding the potential tradeoff between reliability and travel time itself?; How can travel time variability be incorporated into the route choice models for transportation planning purposes?; and, How can the effects of travel time reliability be incorporated in considering risk-taking behavior in route choice models? Answering these questions can help in the design and evaluation of transportation planning and managing strategies.

Suggested Citation

Will Recker, Younshik Chung, Jiyoung Park, Lesley Wang, Anthony Chen, Zhaowang Ji, Henry Liu, Matthew Horrocks and Jun-Seok Oh (2005) Considering Risk-Taking Behavior in Travel Time Reliability. Final Report UCB-ITS-PRR-2005-3. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/59v844cr.

working paper

Heterogeneity in Commuters' "Value of Time" with Noisy Data: A Multiple Imputation Approach

Publication Date

May 1, 2003

Author(s)

Seiji Steimetz, David Brownstone

Working Paper

UCI-ITS-WP-03-2

Areas of Expertise

Transportation Economics, Funding, & Finance Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

View working paper

Abstract

We estimate how motorists value their time savings and characterize the degree of heterogeneity in these values by observable traits. We obtain these estimates by analyzing the choices that commuters make in a real market situation, where they are offered a free-flow alternative to congested travel. We do so, however, in an empirical setting where several key observations are missing. To overcome this, we apply Rubin’s Multiple Imputation Method to generate consistent estimates and valid statistical inferences. We also compare these estimates to those produced in a “single imputation” scenario to illustrate the potential hazards of single imputation methods when multiple imputation methods are warranted. Our preferred model suggests that the median commuter is willing to pay $30 to save an hour of travel time. However, taking observed heterogeneity into account, median estimates range from $7 to $65 according to varying motorist characteristics.

Suggested Citation

Seiji S.C. Steimetz and David Brownstone (2003) Heterogeneity in Commuters' "Value of Time" with Noisy Data: A Multiple Imputation Approach. Working Paper UCI-ITS-WP-03-2. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0f86h9p0.

published journal article

Determinants of voter participation in neighborhood council elections

Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly

Publication Date

November 1, 2011

Author(s)

Doug Houston, Paul Ong

View published journal article

Suggested Citation

Douglas Houston and Paul M. Ong (2011) “Determinants of voter participation in neighborhood council elections”, Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 41(4), pp. 686–703. Available at: 10.1177/0899764011425705.

working paper

A Demand Forecasting System for Clean-Fuel Vehicles

Publication Date

May 1, 1994

Associated Project

UCTC: (1991) ISTEA version

Author(s)

David Brownstone, David Bunch, Thomas Golob

Working Paper

No. 221

Areas of Expertise

Zero-Emission Vehicles & Low-Carbon Fuels

View working paper

Abstract

This paper describes an ongoing project to develop a demand forecasting model for clean-fuel vehicles in California. Large-scale surveys of both households and commercial fleet operators have been carried out. These data are being used to calibrate a new micro-simulation based vehicle demand forecasting system. Based on pre-specified attributes of future vehicles (including specified clean-fueled vehicle incentives), the system will produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by type of vehicle and geographic region. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. These results are potentially useful to utility companies in their demand-side management planning, to public agencies in their evaluation incentive schemes, and to manufacturers faced with designing and marketing clean-fuel vehicles.

Suggested Citation

David Brownstone, David S. Bunch and Thomas F. Golob (1994) A Demand Forecasting System for Clean-Fuel Vehicles. Working Paper No. 221. Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Irvine: University of California Transportation Center. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/79c3g7xv.

Related Publications

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book/book chapter | Oct 1998

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The Determinants of Growth of Employment Subcenters

working paper | Jan 1997

Public Works, the Courts, and the Consent Decree: Environmental and Social Effects of the “Freeway With a Heart”

working paper | Dec 1994

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published journal article

Plug-in electric vehicle diffusion in California: Role of exposure to new technology at home and work

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

Publication Date

February 1, 2022

Author(s)

Debapriya Chakraborty, David Bunch, David Brownstone, Bingzheng Xu, Gil Tal

View published journal article

Abstract

The market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) –including both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs)–has been rapidly growing in California for the past few years. Given the targets for PEV penetration in the state, it is important to have a better understanding of the pattern of technology diffusion and the factors that are driving the process. Using spatial analysis and Poisson count models we identify the importance of a neighborhood effect (at home locations) and a workplace effect (at commute destinations) in supporting the diffusion of PEV technology in California between 2014 and 2016. In the case of new BEV sales, we find that exposure to one additional BEV or PHEV within a 1-mile radius of a census block group centroid is associated with a 0.2% increase in BEV sales in the block group. Interestingly, for new PHEV sales- the neighborhood effect of BEV sales is negative, suggesting that enhanced exposure to this type of technology (which is differentiated in distinctive ways from PHEVs) may impact new PHEV sales through a substitution effect. Specifically, higher BEV concentration in an area can have an overall negative effect on new PHEV sales. While the neighborhood effect at residential locations is important, a workplace effect also has a notably important influence on new PEV sales. Both effects work in combination with socioeconomic, demographic, policy, and built environment factors in encouraging PEV adoption. These results, insightful not just for California but other regions in early phases of the PEV market, suggest that policymakers should consider targeted programs and investments that can attract a wider group of early adopters (in terms of sociodemographic characteristics and spatial location) to boost the impact of neighborhood and workplace effects on PEV sales.

Suggested Citation

Debapriya Chakraborty, David S. Bunch, David Brownstone, Bingzheng Xu and Gil Tal (2022) “Plug-in electric vehicle diffusion in California: Role of exposure to new technology at home and work”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 156, pp. 133–151. Available at: 10.1016/j.tra.2021.12.005.

published journal article

Estimating commuters' “value of time” with noisy data: A multiple imputation approach

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological

Publication Date

December 1, 2005

Author(s)

Seiji Steimetz, David Brownstone

View published journal article

Suggested Citation

Seiji S.C. Steimetz and David Brownstone (2005) “Estimating commuters' “value of time” with noisy data: A multiple imputation approach”, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 39(10), pp. 865–889. Available at: 10.1016/j.trb.2004.11.001.

conference paper

TMC simulator for operator training using micro-simulation

Proceedings of the 87th annual meeting of the transportation research board

Publication Date

January 1, 2008

Author(s)

Lianyu Chu, Jeff Gerfen, Will Recker

View conference paper

Abstract

Fast incident response and management are main tasks of Traffic Management Center (TMC) operators. Using the latest microscopic simulation modeling techniques and a comprehensive simulation management scheme, a next-generation TMC operator training simulator was developed and made operational at the California Advanced Transportation Management Systems Testbed. The development of the simulator was a cooperative effort between the California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo, University of California Irvine, and the California Department of Transportation Department of Traffic Operations (Caltrans Traffics Ops). The simulator is designed to duplicate the standardized TMC software systems and data feeds found in California TMCs in an off-line environment, where TMC operators can be trained to enhance their skills using various incident scenarios. The simulator provides an interactive environment where actions students take to manage an incident affect the simulated traffic in the system and students see the results of their activity. Four training classes have been successfully performed since the completion of the new TMC simulator.

Suggested Citation

Lianyu Chu, Jeff Gerfen and Wilfred W. Recker (2008) “TMC simulator for operator training using micro-simulation”, in Proceedings of the 87th annual meeting of the transportation research board, p. 22p. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Will-Recker/publication/228814166_TMC_Simulator_for_Operator_Training_Using_Micro-Simulation/links/00b49522a2a7bc8805000000/TMC-Simulator-for-Operator-Training-Using-Micro-Simulation.pdf?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uIiwicGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uIn19.

conference paper

A simple genetic algorithm parallelization toolkit (SGAPTk) for transportation planners and logistics managers

Proceedings of the 94th annual meeting of the transportation research board

Publication Date

January 1, 2015

Author(s)

Dmitri Arkhipov, Di Wu, Amelia Regan

Abstract

In this paper the authors extend the standard meta-description for genetic algorithms with a simple non-trivial parallel implementation. The authors’ work is chiefly concerned with the development of a straightforward way for engineers to modify existing genetic algorithm implementations for real industrial or scientific problems to make use of commonly available hardware resources without completely reworking complex, useful and useable codes. The authors present their framework and computational results comparing small scale parallelization for a classical transportation related combinatorial optimization problem â?? the traveling salesman problem with a standard sequential genetic algorithm implementation. The authors’ empirical analysis shows that this simple extension can lead to considerable solution improvements. Next, the authors tested their assumptions that the results are typical and that the method is easily implemented by an engineer not initially familiar with genetic algorithms by implementing the toolkit for another classic scheduling problem.

Suggested Citation

Dmitri I. Arkhipov, Di Wu and Amelia C. Regan (2015) “A simple genetic algorithm parallelization toolkit (SGAPTk) for transportation planners and logistics managers”, in Proceedings of the 94th annual meeting of the transportation research board, p. 18p.