Phd Dissertation

Essays in urban economics

Publication Date

May 31, 2009

Author(s)

Abstract

Three independent research papers, all broadly focused on urban and transportation economics comprise the chapters of this dissertation. These empirical papers address a variety of policy oriented issues surrounding the automobile. Although related in theme, the objective, scope, and empirical strategy of each paper differs. The first chapter, “Does traffic congestion reduce employment growth?”, examines the impact of traffic congestion on employment growth in large U.S. metropolitan areas. I use an historic highway plan and political variables to serve as instruments for endogenous congestion. The results show that high initial levels of congestion dampen subsequent employment growth. This finding suggests that increasing the efficiency of public infrastructure can spur local economies. A set of counterfactual estimates show that the employment-growth returns from modest capacity expansion or congestion pricing are substantial. The second chapter, “Induced demand and rebound effects in road transport” (with Kenneth Small and Kurt Van Dender) uses a simultaneous equations model and aggregate data to estimate how drivers’ respond to exogenous increases in vehicle fuel-efficiency. One consequence of efficiency improvements is an increase vehicle use, which can moderate fuel savings. Accurate measures of this so-called ‘rebound effect’, are of interest to policy makers assessing the effectiveness of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy stadards. This research paper also measures how traffic congestion and highway infrastructure affect vehicle use. The third chapter, “Evaluating the effectiveness of metered parking policy: evidence from a quasi-experiment”, uses a unique observational data set to assess metered parking policy. Although metered parking is ubiquitous, we know little about its effectiveness, particularly its impact on the retailers it is designed to assist. Sharp twice-daily changes in parking meter enforcement allow me to compare shopping behavior in both free and metered parking environments. Using the regression discontinuity design, I find that parking fees can have large impacts on nearby commerce.

Phd Dissertation

Network-wide Signal Control with Distributed Real-time Travel Data

Abstract

Advanced traffic management is a cost-effective option to reduce total delay, fuel consumption and air pollution in urban networks. Nevertheless, Adaptive Signal Control, the most advanced scheme for real-time traffic responsive operations, is still not widely used due to inadequate sensor systems and the deficiencies in the control algorithms. A novel traffic data system was recently proposed at UC Irvine named the “Persistent Traffic Cookies” (PTC) system, in which the routes traveled by the vehicles are recorded onboard and read using short-range wireless communication among vehicles and roadside devices. An advantage of this system is that there is no requirement of massive central databases and data processing of all possible vehicles in the network. The accumulated travel data is distributed across vehicles. The trip behavior inferred in the day-by-day data is used to predict individual paths and aggregated across vehicles for traffic prediction in dynamic network traffic control. This research develops traffic control schemes that use path-based data systems like PTC. Initially, methods are presented to generate the required path-based input variables such as turning flows and travel times. Two main aspects are addressed. One is a systematic approach to define spatial boundaries of subnetworks for area-control using observed traffic dynamics, the path flow between signalized intersections being used as the criterion for control dependency. The second focus is to provide network-level signal optimization, based on a decentralized control scheme yielding indirect signal coordination optimized for delay with no explicit bandwidth maximization. The local optimization uses a Dynamic Programming approach using the predicted arrival flows modeled via link traffic platoon dispersion. Optimal signal indications are found for small time steps (currently 5 seconds) within the control horizon, essentially resulting in a “cycle-less” operation. A modified rolling horizon scheme is applied, incorporating a proper calculation of the salvage cost of left-over queue after the horizon. Signal coordination is indirectly achieved and the feedback among signal decisions lead to an iterative approach. The schemes are evaluated with a microscopic simulation study of a real-world network. The results showed that the scheme reduces the total delays in the network in comparison to the Actuated Signal Control already installed in the network. It is also seen that the modified rolling horizon method with salvage cost considerations performs better than the more conventional methods.

Phd Dissertation

Dynamic Demand Input Preparation for Planning Applications

Abstract

A spectrum of traffic engineering and modern transportation planning problems requires the knowledge of the underlying trip pattern, commonly represented by dynamic Origin- Destination (OD) trip tables. In view of the fact that direct survey of trip pattern is technically problematic and economically infeasible, there have been a great number of methods proposed in the literature for updating the existing OD tables from traffic counts and/or other data sources. Unfortunately, there remain several common theoretical and practical aspects which impact the estimation accuracy and limit the use of these methods from most real-world applications. This dissertation itemizes and examines these critical issues. Then, the dissertation presents the developments, evaluations, and applications of two new frameworks intended to be used with the current and near-future data, respectively.

The first framework offers a systematic and practical procedure for preparing dynamic demand inputs for microscopic traffic simulation under planning applications with an estimation module based solely on traffic counts. Under this framework, the traditional planning model is augmented with a filter traffic simulation step, which captures important spatial-temporal characteristics of route and traffic patterns within a large surrounding network, to improve the flow estimates entering and leaving the final microscopic simulation network. A new bounded dynamic OD estimation model and a solution algorithm for solving a large problem are also proposed.

The second framework utilizes additional information from small probe samples collected over multiple days. There are two steps under this framework. The first step includes a suite of empirical and hierarchical Bayesian models used in estimating time dependent travel time distributions, destination fractions, and route fractions from probe data. These models provide multi-level posterior parameters and tend to moderate extreme estimates toward the overall mean with the magnitude depending on their precision, thus overcoming several problems due to non-uniform (over time and space) small sampling rates. The second step involves a construction of initial OD tables, an estimation of route-link fractions via a Monte Carlo simulation, and an updating procedure using a new dynamic OD estimation formulation which can also take into account the stochastic properties of the assignment matrix.

working paper

Estimation of Automobile Emissions and Control Strategies in India

Publication Date

December 31, 2008

Abstract

Rapid, but unplanned urban development and the consequent urban sprawl coupled with economic growth have aggravated auto dependency in India over the last two decades. This has resulted in congestion and pollution in cities. The central and state Governments have taken many ameliorative measures to reduce vehicular emissions. However, evolution of scientific methods for accurate emission inventory is crucial. Therefore, an attempt has been made to estimate the emissions (running and start) from on-road vehicles in Chennai using IVE model in this paper. GPS was used to collect driving patterns.

The estimated emissions from motor vehicles in Chennai in 2005 were 431, 119, 46, 6 and 4575 tons/days respectively for CO, VOC, NOx, PM and CO2. It is observed from the results that air quality in Chennai has degraded. The estimation revealed that two and three-wheelers emitted about 64 percent of the total CO emissions and heavy-duty vehicles accounted for more than 60 percent and 36 percent of the NOx and PM emissions respectively. About 19 percent of total emissions were that of start emissions. The estimated health damage cost of automobile emissions in Chennai is Rs. 6488.16 million (US$162.20 million). This paper has further examined various mitigation options to reduce vehicular emissions. The Study has concluded that advanced vehicular technology and augmentation of public transit would have significant impact on reducing vehicular emissions.

research report

Integrated Ramp Metering Design and Evaluation Platform with Paramics

Abstract

California currently has three major ramp metering systems: 1) San Diego Ramp Metering System (SDRMS), 2) Semi-Actuated Traffic Management System (SATMS); and, 3) Traffic Operations System (TOS). This report describes a study which focused on developing a user-friendly Integrated Ramp Metering design and evaluation Platform (IRMP) that uses the Paramics simulator to provide a comprehensive set of performance measures for evaluation studies. The report first describes the framework of the IRMP. It next summarizes the detector placement in California for ramp metering applications. Following a detailed description of the SATMS, SDRMS, and TOS ramp metering systems, the report then summarizes and compares these existing ramp metering systems. Potential metering algorithms such as ALINEA and SWARM are also discussed. Finally, the report describes how to implement IRMP and includes the user manual for IRMP.

research report

CARTESIUS and CTNET Integration and Field Operational Test: Year 1

Abstract

This report describes the results of PATH Task Order 5324—the first year of a multi-year project to integrate the Cartesius incident management system with Cal-trans CTNET traffic signal management system. The results of this research are a set of software requirements for reimplementing the Cartesius to interoperate with CTNET. An analysis of the existing Cartesius prototype explains how the need to focus the system on deployment and technical shortcomings of the existing system justifies a reimplementation of the software. From here, we describe the problem to be solved by the new software implementation, including general use cases, the expected users, the systems that Cartesius will interoperate with, and the constraints that will be placed on the system. The problem statement is followed by a detailed discussion of the functional requirements, database requirements, the user interface requirements, and other external interface requirements. The report concludes with a discussion the reimplementation work to be completed under PATHTask Order 6324. This reimplementation will serve the more general purpose of making Cartesius capable of working with existing traffic management subsystems to provide multi-jurisdictional incident mitigation, thus improving its deployability and subsequent value for Caltrans.

working paper

A Bid Analysis Model with Business Constraints for Transportation Procurement Auctions

Publication Date

November 30, 2008

Abstract

Business to business (B2B) auctions have become a dominant mechanism used by large shippers to procure contracts for transportation services from logistics companies. The bid analysis problem is of critical importance to shippers and determines which contracts are assigned to specific carriers and at what price. In practice this problem is further complicated by the consideration of shipper business rules, such as restrictions on carrier numbers, limits on the number of individual packages awarded and preferences for incumbent carriers. This paper examines the case in which bidding packages are mutually exclusive. This is referred to as a non-combinatorial auction. In practice, this type of auction is preferred to a full combinatorial auction because it allows the auctioneer (the shipper) to maintain control of the packages and creates much less cognitive strain for bidders (trucking companies). A mathematical programming model for the bid analysis problem is presented and heuristic construction algorithms and Lagrangian relaxation based algorithms are developed to solve the problem. Numerical results show that our Lagrangian relaxation based heuristics perform better than other heuristics and that the solutions are very close to optimal.

Phd Dissertation

Real option-based procurement for transportation services

Publication Date

November 30, 2008

Abstract

Uncertainty in transportation capacity and cost poses a significant challenge for both shippers and carriers in the trucking industry. In the practice of adopting lean and demand-responsive logistics systems, orders are required to be delivered rapidly, accurately and reliably, even under demand uncertainty. These tougher demands on the industry motivate the need to introduce new instruments to manage transportation service contracts. One way to hedge these uncertainties is to use concepts from the theory of Real Options to craft derivative contracts, which we call truckload options in this dissertation. In its simplest form, a truckload call (put) option gives its holder the right to buy (sell) truckload services on a specific route, at a predetermined price on a predetermined date. The holder decides if a truckload option should be exercised depending on information available when the option expires. Truckload options are not yet available, however, so the purpose of this dissertation is to develop a truckload options pricing model and to show the usefulness of truckload options to both shippers and carriers. Since the price of a truckload option depends on the spot price of a truckload move, we first model the dynamics of spot rates using a common stochastic process. Unlike financial markets where high frequency data are available, spot prices for trucking services are not public and we can only observe some monthly statistics. This complicates somewhat the estimation of necessary parameters, which we obtain via two independent methods (variogram analysis and maximum likelihood), before developing a truckload options pricing formula. Finally, a numerical illustration based on real data shows that truckload options would be quite valuable to the trucking industry. This dissertation develops a method to create value through more flexible procurement contracts, which could benefit the trucking industry as a whole-particularly in an uncertain business environment. Truckload rates and options prices are rigorously investigated and modeled. In addition, parameter estimation for a continuous stochastic model is explored using discrete statistics. Finally, numerical examples are illustrated and a picture of truckload option trading is presented. Results suggest that truckload options have the potential of significantly benefiting the trucking and logistics industries.