working paper

Why Do Inner City Residents Pay Higher Premiums? The Determinants of Automobile Insurance Premiums

Abstract

Auto insurance rates can vary dramatically, with much higher premiums in poor and minority areas than elsewhere, even after accounting for individual characteristics, driving history and coverage. This project used a unique data set to examine the relative influence of place-based socioeconomic characteristics (or redlining) and place-based risk factors on the place-based component of automobile insurance premiums. We used a novel approach of combining tract-level census data and car insurance rate quotes from multiple companies for sub-areas within the city of Los Angeles. The quotes are for a hypothetical individual with identical demographic and auto characteristics, driving records and insurance coverage. This method allowed the individual demographic and driving record to be fixed. Multivariate models are then used to estimate the independent contributions of these risk and redlining factors to the place-based component of the car insurance premium. We find that both risk and redlining factors are associated with variations in insurance costs in the place-based component, with black and poor neighborhoods being adversely affected, although risk factors are stronger predictors. However, even after risk factors are taken into account in the model specification, SES factors remain statistically significant. Moreover, simulations show that redlining factors explain more of the gap in auto insurance premiums between black (and Latino) and white neighborhoods and between poor and nonpoor neighborhoods. The findings do not appear sensitive to the individual characteristics of the hypothetical driver.

research report

Mitigating the Social and Environmental Impacts of Multimodal Freight Corridor Operations at Southern California Ports

Abstract

The San Pedro Bay Ports (SPBP) of Los Angeles and Long Beach in Southern California are one of the major container port complexes in the world: in 2004, for example, the SPBP processed over 36% of the U.S. container trade. However, the SPBP complex is also a major source of air pollution caused largely, on the land-side, by diesel locomotives and trucks that transport containers to and from the ports. The resulting annual health costs may exceed $2.5 billion. Low income and minority communities along the major Alameda corridor, a 20-mile railroad line that connects the SPBP to the transcontinental rail network east of downtown Los Angeles, are particular affected. This study will create a tool that will quantify links between SPBP freight traffic, air pollution, and the health of local communities. This tool will help evaluate the effectiveness of various alternatives (such as congestion pricing to decrease peak container traffic flows, biofuels for trucks and locomotives, or intermodal and route shifting of container traffic) in order to mitigate the environmental and health impacts of SPBP activities. Expected results include new insights into the spatial, socioeconomic, public health, and social justice consequences of alternative SPBP multimodal freight operations strategies.

working paper

Freight Transportation Contracting Under Uncertainty

Abstract

Uncertainties in transportation capacity and costs pose a significant challenge for both shippers and carriers in the trucking industry. One way to hedge these uncertainties is to use concepts from the theory of Real Options to craft derivative contracts, which we call truckload options in this paper. In its simplest form, a truckload call (put) option gives its holder the right to buy (sell) truckload services on a specific route, at a predetermined price on a predetermined date. The holder decides if a truckload option should be exercised depending on information available when the option expires. Truckload options are not yet available, however, so the purpose of this paper is to develop a truckload options pricing model and to show the usefulness of truckload options to both shippers and carriers. Since the price of a truckload option depends on the spot price of a truckload, we first model the dynamics of spot rates using a common stochastic process. Unlike financial markets where high frequency data are available, spot prices for trucking services are not public and we can only observe some monthly statistics. This complicates slightly the estimation of necessary parameters, which we obtain via two independent methods (variogram analysis and maximum likelihood), before developing a truckload options pricing formula. A numerical example based on real data shows that truckload options would be quite valuable to the trucking industry.

working paper

Impacts of Left Lane Truck Restriction on Urban Freeways

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of truck lane restriction on urban freeways using traffic simulation models. The study includes three main parts: Part (1) provides insights into conditions under which truck lane restrictions would work well; Part (2) identifies the best number of lanes to restrict and shows that this is an important factor in the success of lane restriction; Part (3) investigates potential impacts of truck lane restriction through a case study using a region with some of the highest truck volumes in the U.S., the I-710 corridor in Los Angeles County, California. The study begins by examining the potential impacts of truck lane restrictions using two representative hypothetical freeways. This is because the impacts of truck lane restrictions will vary with differing traffic and geometric conditions. Results suggest that truck lane restriction could work well when the rate of flow is more than 1300 vehicles per hour per lane and where trucks make up at least 10 percent of the total traffic. Three scenarios are developed. These are do-nothing (no strategy implemented), alternative I (the one leftmost lane restricted from trucks), and alternative II (the two leftmost lanes restricted from trucks). These are examined in a pair-wise manner. Results show that determining the best number of restricted lanes is very important. Through the I-710 case study we find that alternative II would have the most positive effects on traffic congestion and travel time variance. Based on these results, we conclude that truck lane restriction strategies, which are very simple and cost-effective to implement, may contribute to improved traffic flow on urban freeways.

working paper

Implementation of a Tool for Measuring ITS Impacts on Freeway Safety Performance

Abstract

The research was undertaken to develop a tool for assessing the impacts of changes in freeway traffic flow on the level of traffic safety. Safety is measured in terms of the probability of a reportable accident, and the tool is so far restricted to urban freeway mainlines with substantial traffic levels. The tool will: (1) monitor the safety level of freeway operations (2) aid in freeway planning. The tool was calibrated by applying advanced statistical models to actual data combined from two sources: Vehicle Detector Station (VDS) data for freeways in Orange County (District 12), and data on all reported accidents in Orange County from the Traffic Surveillance and Analysis System (TASAS). The analytical engine that drives the safety tool is based on models that are highly effective in identifying those myriad aspects of traffic flow that are statistically related to accident probabilities. It is recommended that Caltrans invest in projects that will validate the current work, and subsequently: (1) improve the accuracy of the safety predictions; (2) extend the applicability of the modeling approach to other Caltrans districts; and (3) evaluate the dissemination of safety predictions in real time.

working paper

Field Deployment and Operational Test of an Agent-based, Multi-Jurisdictional Traffic Management System

Abstract

This report describes a reinterpretation of how the philosophy underlying the Cartesiusmulti-jurisdictional incident management prototype can be used as an organizing princi-ple for real-world multi-jurisdictional systems. This interpretation focuses on the power ofthe Distributed Problem Solving (DPS) approach Cartesius uses to partition analysis andoptimization functions in the system across jurisdictions. This partitioning minimizes theamount of local information that must be shared between jurisdictions and paves the way fordefining a collection of TMC-to-TMC messages that support the Cartesius DPS perspectivein a manner that respects existing deployments.

Based on this interpretation, the report recommends building a new TMC software agentthat provides operators with a view of the system from Cartesius DPS perspective. This toolwill initially be advisory in nature, providing operators with guidance regarding how localactions are likely to conflict with the actions of neighboring jurisdictions (or lack thereof).Where it is appropriate, and where local policy permits, the new management agent couldalso be connected to available control subsystems to provide operational or tactical controlin response to problems in the system.

Phd Dissertation

Real-time vehicle reidentification system for freeway performance measurements.

Abstract

Computational resources in traffic operation fields as well as the bandwidth of field communication links are often quite limited. Accordingly, for real-time implementation of Advanced Transportation Management and Information Systems (ATMIS) strategies, such as vehicle reidentification, there is strong interest in development of field-based techniques and models that can perform satisfactorily while minimizing computational and communication requirements in the field. The ILD (Inductive Loop Detector)-based Vehicle ReiDentification system (ILD-VReID) is an example of a currently applied approach. Although ILDs are not without limitations as a traffic sensor, they are widely used for historical reasons and the sunken investment in the large installed base makes their use in this research highly cost-effective. Therefore, this dissertation develops a new vehicle reidentification algorithm, RTREID-2, for real-time implementation by adopting a PSR (Piecewise Slope Rate) approach that extracts features from raw vehicle signature data. The results of cases studies indicate that RTREID-2 is capable of accurately providing individual vehicle tracking information and performance measurements such as travel time and speed. The potential contributions of RTREID-2 are: application to square and round single loop configurations, and reduced computational requirements associated with re-estimation or transferability of the speed models used in the previously developed approach. As a consequence, RTREID-2 is free of site-specific calibration and transferability issues. A freeway corridor study also demonstrates that RTREID-2 has the potential to be implemented successfully in a congested freeway corridor, utilizing data obtained from both homogenous and heterogeneous loop detection systems. A real-time vehicle classification model, which is based on the PSR approach, was also developed on the part of RTREID-2. The classification model can successfully classify vehicles into 15 classes using single loop detector data without any axle explicit information. The initial results also suggest the potential for transferability of the vehicle classification approach and are very encouraging. To investigate real-time freeway performance measurement in a real-world setting, the design of RTPMS (Real-time Traffic Performance Measurement System) that is based on RTREID-2 is also presented in this dissertation. A simulation of RTPMS is conducted to evaluate its feasibility. The simulation results demonstrate the potential of implementing RTPMS in real world application.