Abstract

The goal of this study was to analyze the impact of private autonomous vehicles (PAVs), specifically their near-activity location travel patterns, on vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The study proposes an integrated mode choice and simulation-based parking assignment model, along with an iterative solution approach, to analyze the impacts of PAVs on VMT, mode choice, parking lot usage, and other system performance measures. The dynamic simulation-based parking assignment model determines the parking location choice of each traveler as a function of the spatial–temporal demand for parking from the mode choice model, whereas the multinomial logit mode choice model determines mode splits based on the costs and service quality of each travel mode coming, in part, from the parking assignment model. The paper presents a case study to illustrate the power of the modeling framework. The case study varies the percentage of persons with a private vehicle (PV) who own a PAV versus a private conventional vehicle (PCV). The results indicated that PAV owners traveled an extra 0.11 to 1.51 mi compared with PCV owners on average, and the PV mode share was significantly higher for PAV owners. Therefore, as PCVs are converted into PAVs in the future, the results indicate substantial increases in VMT near activity destinations. However, the results also indicated that adjusting parking fees and redistributing parking lot capacities could reduce VMT. The significant increase in VMT from PAVs implies that planners should develop policies to reduce PAV deadheading miles near activity locations, as the automated era comes closer.