working paper

Economics and Urban Transportation Policy in the United States

Publication Date

December 31, 1996

Author(s)

Abstract

This article examines the role that economics can play in analysing problems with urban transportation in the United States. The specific problems addressed are failing infrastructure, financially weak public transit, environmental impacts of motor vehicles, motor-vehicle accidents, and traffic congestion. Simple quantitative analyses, even though approximate, can help to focus attention on the most promising classes of policies. Those classes involve some technological measures and some narrowly targeted behavioral changes, but not the widespread curtailment of of motor vehicles use.

working paper

Development Testing And Evaluation Of Advanced Techniques For Freeway Incident Detection

Abstract

In this research, the authors introduce and define a universal incident detection framework that is capable of fulfilling all components of a set of recognized needs. An algorithm is presented that has the potential to fulfill the defined universality requirements. It is a modified form of a probabilistic neural network (PNN) that utilizes the concept of statistical distance. The first part of the report presents a definition of the attributes and capabilities that a potentially universal freeway incident detection framework should possess. The second part discusses the training and testing of the PNN. The third section evaluates the PNN relative to the proposed universality template. In addition to a large set of simulated incidents, the authors utilize a large real incident database from the I-880 freeway in California to comparatively evaluate the performance and transferability of different algorithms including the PNN.

working paper

An Activity-Based Trip Generation Model

Publication Date

December 31, 1996

Author(s)

Abstract

The goal of this dissertation is to develop an activity-based trip generation model which addresses shortcomings of the conventional trip-based approach. Problems with conventional generation models resulted from a fundamental incapability to address the temporal and spatial characteristics of activities and the trips which they generated. The sequencing and scheduling of trips and activities, and interactions between household members, are ignored in the standard model. The proposed activity-based generation model was developed to estimate trip production from the analysis of complete travel/activity patterns. This approach classifies travel patterns with respect to activity, spatial, and temporal characteristics; standard trip rates can be also estimated from these representative activity patterns. In addition to a standard category production model, a stochastic logit-based pattern choice model and a deterministic discriminant analysis model were developed to stimulate activity pattern choice and the associated trip production level. A variety of variables describing the socioeconomic and demographic attributes at the household or personal level comprise the utility functions for choice prediction. Temporal stability of activity patterns was evident in similar life cycle groups in the 1985 and 1994 Portland test data, supporting the conclusion that patterns are a viable structure on which to base future forecasts.

working paper

Can Land Use Policy Really Affect Travel Behavior? A Study of the Link between Non-Work Travel and Land Use Characteristics

Publication Date

November 30, 1996

Abstract

Planners are increasingly viewing land use policies as a way to manage transportation demand. Yet the evidence on the link between land use and travel behavior is inconclusive. This paper uses travel diary data for Southern California residents to examine the demand for non-work travel. Both non-work automobile trips and non-work miles travelled by car are modelled as a function of individual sociodemographic variables and land use characteristics near the person’s place of residence. The land use variables are rarely statistically significant, and diagnostic tests suggest that land use (and thus residential location choice) is endogenous to non-work travel. The implications are twofold. The link between land use and non-work travel is weak at best, at least for the sample studied here, and future research should treat residential location and thus nearby land use characteristics as endogenous in models of travel behavior.

working paper

Business Losses, Transportation Damage and the Northridge Earthquake

Abstract

The January 17, 1994 Northridge Earthquake damaged four major freeways in the Los Angeles area, creating the prospect of gridlock in the nation’s prototypical automobile city. This paper examines the effect of the transportation damage on business activity. Using survey responses from 559 firms in the Los Angeles area, this paper gives information on the extent and magnitude of the business losses that can be attributed to the transportation disruptions. Despite the fact that the freeway damage was repaired exceptionally quickly, 43% of the firms that reported any earthquake loss stated that some portion of that loss was due to transportation damage. For the firms that attributed some loss to transportation damage, the average response was that 39% of their earthquake-related business losses were due to the disruptions in the transportation system. Comparing information on these and other survey responses yields several policy recommendations, which are summarized at the end of the paper.

working paper

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Ownership and Use in the California South Coast Air Basin

Abstract

This research deals with demand for automobiles and light-duty and medium-duty trucks. Planners concerned with energy consumption, air quality and the provision of transportation facilities must have dependable forecasts of vehicle ownership and use from both the residential (personal-use vehicle) sectors and the fleet (commercial and governmental) sectors. As long as vehicles evolved slowly, it was possible to base such forecasts on extrapolations of observed demand. However, in an era of increasing environmental awareness, mandated in part by the Clean Air Act Amendments (US EPA, 1990), government agencies are now concerned with promoting clean-fuel vehicles; vehicle manufacturers are faced with designing and marketing clean-fuel vehicles; and suppliers of fuels other than gasoline must plan infrastructure and pricing policies.

working paper

An Assessment of the Interaction of the Land-Use Transportation System and Travel Behavior

Publication Date

July 31, 1996

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical assessment of the interaction between the land use – transportation system and travel behavior. A methodology is developed to identify a range of land use-transportation systems using a clustering technique with network and land use inputs. Twenty neighborhoods from Orange County, California were considered in this process. Three groups, or themes, were found to best represent the neighborhoods in the sample area, one each associated with the conventional definition of neotraditional (TND) and planned unit development (PUD) neighborhoods, and one representing neighborhoods which blend characteristics of TND and PUD. Conventional and more complex measures of individual travel behavior were compared via an analysis of variance between the themes to identify significant differences, controlling for socio-economic differences. Research results included the development of (a) a systematic methodology to identify a more explicit land use and transportation dimension, (b) an estimate of the potential effectiveness of design-oriented solutions to reduce automobile congestion using the developed themes, and (c) a preliminary assessment of the extent to which development themes can be utilized to improve the current modeling framework. 

working paper

A Model of Activity Participation and Travel Interactions Between Household Heads

Publication Date

July 31, 1996

Abstract

A structural model is used to explain activity interactions between heads of households, and, in so doing, to explain household demand for travel. The model attempts to capture links between activity participation and associated derived travel, links between activities performed by male and female heads, links between types of travel, and time get feedbacks from travel to activity participation. Data for pairs of opposite gender heads of households are from the 1994 Portland Activity and Travel Survey. The results suggest that a feedback mechanism should be introduced in trip generation models to reflect the effect of activity frequency and duration on the level of associated travel.

Phd Dissertation

Efficiency in the bus transit industry: Measurement and identification of performance determinants.

Abstract

Urban bus transit is an example of a public industry which relies on subsidies for survival. The history of mass transit in the United States reveals that the impetus for government subsidies can partially be attributed to factors exogenous to the industry. Subsidies have created incentives for distorted or sub-optimal input choices among the firms. Previous productivity studies of urban bus transit firms have not properly accounted for the effects of these incentives and the ambiguous nature of optimization decisions inherent in such an institutional environment. Furthermore, transit firms operate as spatial monopolies in almost all urban areas. I argue that in this situation, non-parametric frontier estimates of efficiency are appropriate measures for the analysis of productivity. I also investigate and compare several proposed modifications to the non-parametric estimation techniques. When the efficiency estimation technique is configured to the institutional environment facing this industry not only are some important results from previous studies of efficiency in transportation firms confirmed, but I also show that other factors postulated to explain differences in transit cost efficiency do not help explain differences in measures of technical efficiency.

Phd Dissertation

An Activity-Based Approach to Accessibility

Publication Date

June 29, 1996

Author(s)

Abstract

In an effort to compensate for the deficiencies on traditional trip based approach, this dissertation focuses on the supplement in traditional measures of individual accessibility, and the incorporation of temporal transference effects and ride sharing behavior within a household to form a sensitive index. A network-based activity assignment protocol has been developed for complex travel activity decisions within a household. The proposed research incorporates routing, scheduling, and ride-sharing components into a hybrid model that explicitly captures the interactions between household members and integrates ride-sharing, and time window constraints. Under this approach, individual accessibility can be estimated and aggregated to reflect household accessibility. Prior research on such accessibility approaches strongly suggests that the proposed extensions can be employed to estimate the impacts of changes in different policy options. Results of this research will contribute to the state-of-the-art in complex travel behavior and validate a policy-sensitive forecasting model.