working paper
This study evaluates the performance and effectiveness of the Smart Traveler Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS). The project is designed as a field operational test of three different media approaches for providing traveler information: fully automated telephone systems, automated multi-media touch screen kiosks, and PC via modem. The program is evaluated in terms of technical function, cost, user response and overall effectiveness.
working paper |
February 03, 2025
working paper |
February 03, 2025
Phd Dissertation |
February 03, 2025
working paper |
February 03, 2025
research report |
February 03, 2025
working paper
The majority of demand models used at present are based on cross-sectional data. Behavior, however, is temporally related. Using three waves of a panel data of 2200 commuters in Southern California, this paper conducts a comparative analysis of three types of models: an ordered probit model, a two-period joint choice probit model, and a two-period dynamic beta logistic model. The choice behavior modeled is the choice between driving alone and sharing a ride for the work commute. Prediction tests both on a hold-out sample as well as on a forecast sample were conducted. With the hold-out sample, all three models performed similarly. With the forecast sample, however, the beta-logistic model performed better than the other two models in aggregate predictions, and approximately the same as the joint choice probit model in disaggregate predictions, while both of these models performed better than the ordered probit model.
working paper |
March 21, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
Phd Dissertation |
March 07, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
working paper
Traffic congestion is a disruptive fact of urban life. It inflicts delays and frustrations in virtually all major cities in the world, new or old, rich or poor. Although many countermeasures have been tried, it is hard to name a city in which there is much satisfaction with the existing state of affairs. About the only positive aspect of congestion is that it reflects the pulse of life, a demand for travel and trade that typically accompanies economic activity.
working paper |
March 21, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
Phd Dissertation |
March 07, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
working paper
Can form follow transit? Can transit restructure urban form? What types of policy measures can direct such restructuring? These questions are increasingly asked today as the initial ridership of new transit developments remains limited. If it can be shown that investment in urban infrastructure stimulates development along transit corridors, particularly around stations, which in turn contributes to increased ridership, a self inducing effect of transit development can be claimed. In the dispersed urban form typical of California cities, justification of fixed-rail transit systems must depend on this logic. Intuitively, it is not an unreasonable presumption.
working paper |
March 21, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
Phd Dissertation |
March 07, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
working paper
In this paper, I develop demographic models which can be used to simulation household changes resulting from marriage, divorce or separation, childbirth, children leaving home, cohabitation, extended families living together, death, and so forth. They are dynamic in nature, and are meant to be used within a larger microsimulation system. In fact, they can be used by any microsimulation system that models decision-making at the household level. They extend previous work in three ways: 1) by using continuos time hazard models, 2) by allowing for inter-dependencies across the various type of changes that a household may undergo, and 3) by including several important covariates. These covariates include age, gender, race, education, income, employment status, and indicators for previous demographic events (e.g. birth of a child out-of-wedlock and previous marriages). They provide insight into the demographic patterns across different socioeconomic groups.
working paper |
March 21, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
Phd Dissertation |
March 07, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
working paper
This research explores factors which influence demand for light-duty alternative-fuel vehicles among commercial and governmental fleets. The data are derived from a large, comprehensive 1994 survey of more than 2,000 fleet sites in California. A model is developed to predict near-term adoption of alternative-fuel vehicles using variables in three categories: (1) fleet site characteristics, including on-site refueling, average annual miles traveled, vehicle duty cycles, and fleet size; (2) organizational decision making attributes; and (3) perceived awareness that a fleet site is subject to legislation that requires the use of alternative-fuel vehicles. This third factor, AFV mandates, is the most important, but a number of fleet site characteristics are also significant precursors of AFV demand.
working paper
Standard urban models assume residents never think about their next job. More likely, the individual value of a given home and the choice of commute length are based not only on the current job site, but also on the expectation of where future jobs will be and the likelihood of both job separations and residential moves. The first factor lessens the value of access to the present job, while the second determines the opportunity cost of moving. Both sets of factors lead to flatter rent gradients and more sprawl than predicted by standard theories. The analysis further suggests that relatively stable jobs are likely associated with relatively shorter commutes. Past studies of the regional balance of jobs and housing, or ‘wasteful’ commuting, of differences in the length of commute by gender, and of spatial tests for discrimination in housing and local labor markets have neglected these considerations, and may yield biased results as a consequence.
working paper |
March 21, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
Phd Dissertation |
March 07, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
working paper |
March 07, 2025
working paper
A discrete choice model has been developed in which the choice alternative consist of vehicle transactions rather than portfolios of vehicle holdings. The model is based on responses to customized stated preference questions involving both hypothetical future vehicles and the household’s current vehicle holdings. The stated choices were collected from 4747 survey respondents located throughout most of the urbanized portions of the state of California. Respondents were asked what their next vehicle transaction would most likely be (replace a current vehicle, add another vehicle, or dispose of a current vehicle), and respondents who wanted to replace or add vehicles were asked to indicate their most preferred vehicle from a set of six hypothetical vehicles. The hypothetical vehicles were described in terms of fourteen attributes, manipulated according to an experimental design.
The transactions model is a multinomial logit model of the choice of the hypothetical vehicles and whether or not the hypothetical vehicle will be a replacement or addition to the household fleet. The model is conditioned on the household’s current vehicle stock. and the characteristics of the current vehicles are important explanators of the stated preference choices. In addition to the model estimates, forecasts are given for a base case scenario in 1998.
This model is one component in a micro-simulation demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by type of vehicle and geographic area. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. These results are potentially useful to utility companies in their demand-side management planning, to public agencies in their evaluation incentive schemes, and to manufacturers faced with designing and marketing alternative-fuel vehicles.
MS Thesis
Phd Dissertation