Phd Dissertation

Neural network models for automated detection of lane-blocking incidents on freeways

Abstract

A major source of urban freeway delay in the United States is non-recurring congestion caused by incidents such as accidents, disabled vehicles, spilled loads, temporary maintenance and construction activities, signal and detector malfunctions, and other special and unusual events that disrupt the normal flow of traffic. The automated detection of freeway incidents is an important function of a freeway traffic management center. Early detection of incidents is vital for formulating effective response strategies such as timely dispatch of emergency services and incident removal crews, control and routing of traffic around the incident location, and provision of real-time traffic information to motorists. A number of incident detection algorithms, based on conventional approaches, have been developed over the past several decades, and a few of them are being deployed at urban freeway systems in major cities. These conventional algorithms have met with varying degree of success in their detection performance. In this research, a new incident detection technique based on an artificial neural network approach has been proposed. The objective of this research was to demonstrate the use of artificial neural network models for automated detection of lane-blocking incidents on urban freeways. The study focused on the application of neural network models in classifying traffic surveillance data obtained from inductive loop detectors, and the use of the classified output to detect an incident. Three types of neural network models were developed to detect lane-blocking incidents: the multi-layer feed-forward neural network, self-organizing feature map and adaptive resonance theory 2. The models were developed with simulation data from a study site and tested with both simulation and field data at the study site and other locations. The multi-layer feed-forward neural network was found to have the highest potential among the four models to achieve a better incident detection performance. This network consistently detected most of the lane-blocking incidents and gave a false alarm rate lower than the conventional algorithms currently in use. The results have demonstrated the potential of artificial neural network models in improving incident detection performance over currently available techniques.

Phd Dissertation

A Comparative Study of Entrepreneurial Strategies among African American and Latino Truckers in the Los Angeles and Long Beach Ports

Abstract

This study examines the entrepreneurial strategies of African-American and Latino owner-operators in the container hauling sector of the Los Angeles trucking industry. The research proceeded in two stages. In the first, I estimated the ethnic representation of owner-operators and found Latinos to be significantly more represented than other groups. In the second, a snowball sample was used to identify 54 respondents who were interviewed regarding their business behavior and attitudes. The data were analyzed using traditional descriptive statistics as well as multidimensional scaling techniques. The analysis revealed several differences between African-Americans, non-immigrant Latinos, and immigrant Latinos. They differed in the ways they used social networks and co-ethnic support systems. There were more partnerships than expected among African-Americans and more loans and free labor from non-kin co-ethnics for Latinos. Also a higher proportion of immigrants than expected was found among Latinos. The findings of this study lend support to reactive cultural theories and labor market segmentation theories. African-Americans depended heavily on nuclear family partnerships. Both groups were heavily dependent on Latino immigrant labor in the informal sector for employees. A macro analysis suggests that the organization of labor in the harbor is evolving to create greater flexibility in an emerging NIDL (new international division of labor). This study concludes that immigrants out number non-immigrants because they are more flexible about rates and working conditions and not because of a greater tendency to network.

working paper

A Structural Model of Vehicle Use in Two-Vehicle Households

Abstract

This research is part of the project aimed at developing a model system to forecast demand for clean fuel vehicles in California, conducted by researchers at the University of California, Irvine and University of California, Davis. The objective of the research reported here is to explain annual vehicle miles of travel for each of the two vehicles in two-vehicle households as a function only of household characteristics that can be forecasted using the household sociodemographic updating model being developed as part of the personal vehicle submodel (brownstone, Bunch and Golob, 1994). The household’s choice of the number of vehicles to own and the types of these vehicles, in terms of the class and vintage of each vehicle, are taken as given in this model.

working paper

Driver Behavior of Long Distance Truck Drivers: The Effects of Schedule Compliance on Drug Use and Speeding Citations

Abstract

This paper reports the results of an econometric analysis of the influences on on-road behaviour of long distance truck drivers in Australia. The approach is couched in terms of a utility maximisation framework in which a driver trades-off economic reward with occupational risk. The physical risks to the driver due to driving while fatigued are proxied by the use of stimulants. Drawing on a 1990 survey of a sample of 402 truck drivers selected from owner drivers and employee drivers, we evaluate a number of alternative hypotheses on the relationship between drug taking, compliance with schedules and the propensity to speed. A system of structural equations is specified to test alternative hypotheses on causality between the endogenous variables and a set of exogenous effects. The models are estimated using distribution-free methods for mixed dichotomous and continuous variables. The main findings within the set of endogenous variables is that increasing speed is positively influenced by the propensity to take stay-awake pills which is itself positively influenced by the propensity to self-impose schedules. After controlling for a number of contextual influences on the endogenous variables, rates of financial reward have a significant impacts on all three endogenous variables. This study has highlighted the complex relationships which exist between speeding, social behaviour and economic reward.

working paper

A Demand Forecasting System for Clean-Fuel Vehicles

Publication Date

April 30, 1994

Author(s)

Abstract

This paper describes an ongoing project to develop a demand forecasting model for clean-fuel vehicles in California. Large-scale surveys of both households and commercial fleet operators have been carried out. These data are being used to calibrate a new micro-simulation based vehicle demand forecasting system. Based on pre-specified attributes of future vehicles (including specified clean-fueled vehicle incentives), the system will produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by type of vehicle and geographic region. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. These results are potentially useful to utility companies in their demand-side management planning, to public agencies in their evaluation incentive schemes, and to manufacturers faced with designing and marketing clean-fuel vehicles.

working paper

A Faster Path-Based Algorithm for Traffic Assignment

Abstract

This paper takes a fresh look at the arguments against path-enumeration algorithms for the traffic assignment problem and provides the results of a gradient projection method. The motivation behind the research is the orders of magnitude improvement in the availability of computer storage over the last decade. Faster assignment algorithms are necessary for real-time traffic assignment under several of the proposed Advanced Traffic Management System (ATMS) strategies, and path-based solutions are preferred. Our results show that gradient projection converges in 1/10 iterations than the conventional Frank-Wolfe algorithm. The computation time improvement is of the same order for small networks, but reduces as the network size increases. We discuss the computer implementation issues carefully, and provide schemes to achieve a 10-fold speed-up for larger networks also. We have used the algorithm for networks of up to 2000 nodes on a typical computer work station, and we discuss certain data structures to save storage and solve the assignment problem for even a 5000 node network.

working paper

The Demand Curve Under Road Pricing and the Problem of Political Feasibility

Publication Date

December 31, 1993

Author(s)

Abstract

Road pricing is widely advocated as a solution to congestion problems. The underlying theory is well developed, and we even have the technology to implement it without toll booths. Only political barriers remain. Decision makers are reluctant to retrofit tolls on existing highways because they do not know what circumstances might make such an action acceptable to the public. This paper develops a graphical model that displays the interaction between road capacity, user demand, travel speed and toll charges. The model is then used to analyze the sources of public resistance to road pricing. Might the potential response to road pricing be predicted using data from the new toll roads now being built around the United States? Our model shows it cannot. Political success depends on the demand characteristics at the right-hand side of the demand curve, while toll road data only trace out the left-hand side of the curve. Our model also shows situations where the new toll roads are likely to generate public anger. The Appendix discusses an experimental design that uses unobtrusive measures to assess the effect of a transportation project.

working paper

Electronic Road Pricing in Southern California: Policy Obstacles to Congestion Pricing

Abstract

Policy issues obstruct use of advanced traffic management technology in Southern California. Reliable equipment for electronic road pricing (ERP) is available that could establish a regionwide network of high occupancy vehicle (HOV) facilities where single occupant users (SOV) buy access. Private toll roads plan to use automatic vehicle identification (AVI), automatic toll collection (ATC), and changeable message signs to guide traffic into high-occupancy, buy-in lanes. Public agencies oppose expansion o this technology to the regional HOV network. Some hypothesize that the high-occupancy, toll (HOT) lanes would not promote ridesharing and related air quality objectives. This paper tests this hypothesis by applying a multinomial logit model to potential travel in one freeway corridor where private, buy-in lames are under construction. The hypothesis is not supported; free HOV lanes can be converted to HOT lanes using advanced technology to achieve an increase in average vehicle occupancy (AVO). The effect on congestion is uncertain.