Skip to content
The Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Irvine
  • About
    • Leadership
    • Affiliated Centers
    • IT Resources
    • ITS-Irvine Policies
    • Contact
  • Research
    • Areas of Expertise
    • Publications
    • Projects
    • Requests for Proposals
    • TRIP Program
    • PRIME Program
  • Education
  • People
    • Researchers
    • Administrative Staff
    • Current Students
    • PhD Graduates
    • Past Faculty Associates
  • Support Us
  • News & Events
    • News
    • Events
  • About
    • Leadership
    • Affiliated Centers
    • IT Resources
    • ITS-Irvine Policies
    • Contact
  • Research
    • Areas of Expertise
    • Publications
    • Projects
    • Requests for Proposals
    • TRIP Program
    • PRIME Program
  • Education
  • People
    • Researchers
    • Administrative Staff
    • Current Students
    • PhD Graduates
    • Past Faculty Associates
  • Support Us
  • News & Events
    • News
    • Events

Sponsor: Caltrans

Local Travel Forecasting in California: Assessing the State-of-the-Practice

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2007 - July 31, 2009

Principal Investigator

Michael McNally

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5970
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

Team Departmental Affiliation

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Evaluation of vehicle fuel economy standards

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 1, 2007 - July 31, 2009

Principal Investigator

David Brownstone

Project Team

Hao (Audry) Fang

Sponsor, Program

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Team Departmental Affiliation

Economics

Project Summary

Congress recently passed legislation increasing vehicle fuel economy standards, but there has been controversy over the “rebound effect,” or the tendency of people to drive more when their cars become more fuel efficient. In a very influential paper, Small and Van Dender (2007) used a dynamic simultaneous equations model to estimate the rebound effect from 1970 - 2001.  They found that it has been decreasing during the last decade due to increases in personal income.  We have replicated Small and Van Dender’s work and found that some of the overidentifying restrictions on their model are invalid.  The proposed work will remedy this by either removing these restrictions and/or finding additional valid ones.  Since the likely outcome of this effort will be to decrease the precision of the rebound effect estimates, we will also extend the data set to at least 2006.  Although this data extension seems small, it covers a period where gasoline prices increased significantly for the first time in almost twenty years, so extending the data should considerably improve our estimates.  The recent legislation will increase fuel economy standards for trucks more than those for cars, and this will lead to relatively higher prices for trucks.  We propose to investigate the impact of these changes on the demand for trucks and cars by extending the models in Fang (2008) based on the 2001 National Highway Transportation Survey (NHTS).  Unlike most previous work, Fang’s model can parsimoniously handle households with more than two vehicles (about 35% of California households), so the results will be valid for the entire population.

Related Publications

research report | Sep 2014

A vehicle ownership and utilization choice model with endogenous residential density

Read more
published journal article | Sep 2014

A vehicle ownership and utilization choice model with endogenous residential density
Journal of Transport and Land Use

Read more

Real Option-Based Procurement for Transportation Services

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 1, 2007 - July 31, 2009

Principal Investigator

Amelia Regan

Project Team

Sarah Aly, Matthew Nguyen, Pruttipong Apivatanagul, Mei-Ting (May) Tsai, Miyuan Zhao, Ying Jun Chow, Jean-Daniel Saphores, Jiana-Fu (Jeff) Wang, Rex Chen

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5894
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Freight, Logistics, & Supply Chain

Team Departmental Affiliations

Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Science

Project Summary

This research investigates how to model freight transportation flexibility using the theory of real options (Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). In the practice of adopting lean and demand-responsive logistics systems, orders are required to be delivered rapidly, accurately and reliably, even under demand uncertainty. These tougher demands on the industry motivate the need to introduce new instruments to manage transportation service contracts. One possibility, which has begun to attract attention, is to use real options to hedge transportation capacity and cost volatility. To date, no published research has specifically focused on applying real options in the trucking industry even though this is the dominant freight transportation mode. Our research proposes a real option based method of procuring trucking services. Research activities will include: 1) understanding the conditions for the emergence of a market for truckload options based on experiences in other transportation industries; 2) modeling truckload rate dynamics and investigating pricing formulas for truckload options; and 3) collecting data and case studies for selected representative transportation origin-destination pairs. 

Related Publications

published journal article | Oct 2009

Freight Transportation Derivatives Contracts: State of the Art and Future Developments
Transportation Journal

Read more
Phd Dissertation | Jan 2008

Real option-based procurement for transportation services

Read more
working paper | Sep 2008

Freight Transportation Contracting Under Uncertainty

Read more

Costs and Effectiveness of Lower-Speed, Environmentally-Friendly Urban Highway Designs

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 1, 2007 - July 31, 2009

Principal Investigator

Kenneth Small

Project Team

Chen Ng, Chun Kon (Cecilia) Kim, Kent Hymel, Hsin Hsu, Nilopa Shah

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5897
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Infrastructure Delivery, Operations, & Resilience Safety, Public Health, & Mobility Justice

Team Departmental Affiliation

Economics

Related Publications

conference paper | Jan 2008

Tradeoffs among free-flow speed, capacity, cost, and environmental footprint in highway design
University of California Transportation Center Annual Conference, Los Angeles

Read more

The Personal Travel Assistant (PTA): Measuring the Dynamics of Human Travel Behavior

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

September 1, 2007 - July 31, 2009

Principal Investigator

Will Recker

Project Team

Tuan Nguyen, Yosuke Arai, Rina Dechter, Jee Eun (Jamie) Kang, Craig Rindt

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5886
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

Team Departmental Affiliations

Civil and Environmental Engineering, Information and Computer Science

Related Publications

research report | Aug 2010

The personal travel assistant (PTA): Measuring the dynamics of human travel behavior

Read more

Conceptual and Methodological Development of a California Statewide Freight Demand Model

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

July 15, 2010 - June 30, 2011

Principal Investigator

Stephen Ritchie

Project Team

Fatemeh Ranaiefar, Ying Jun Chow, Miyuan Zhao

Sponsor & Award Number

Caltrans: 74A0508

Areas of Expertise

Freight, Logistics, & Supply Chain

Team Departmental Affiliation

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Project Summary

The Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Irvine is completed a two-year study for Caltrans titled “Assessment and Development of Commodity Flow, Logistics, and Other Relevant Goods Movement Data Sources to Facilitate Statewide Freight Modeling.” The findings from this project also further emphasize the growing need for analytical tools for understanding goods movement. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) estimates domestic freight volumes to grow by more than 65 percent, increasing from 13.5 billion tons in 1998 to 22.5 billion tons in 2020. According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the volumes of goods shipped by trucks and railroads are projected to increase by 98 percent and 88 percent, respectively, by 2035. To better support policies related to goods movement and its impacts, many states have started adopting statewide freight forecasting models, including Oregon, Florida, Indiana, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin, among others. This project represents an initial preparation phase addressing conceptual and methodological alternatives is needed prior to the actual model development. In this preparation phase, we will coordinate with the primary model users, Caltrans and ARB, to clearly define the model uses. We will deliberate with the MPO’s in California, and other academic institutions, consultants, and state agencies working with Caltrans and ARB in related areas. We will clearly identify the primary modeling methods and decide on a preferred method with Caltrans. Lastly, we will develop a framework for the preferred method and create a work plan.

A Model Of Activity/Travel Scheduling/Rescheduling Decisions In An Uncertain Environment

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2006 - July 31, 2008

Principal Investigator

Will Recker

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5443
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Travel Behavior, Land Use, & the Built Environment

Team Departmental Affiliation

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Models for Evaluating General Truck Transportation

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2006 - July 31, 2008

Principal Investigator

Amelia Regan

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5441
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Freight, Logistics, & Supply Chain

Team Departmental Affiliation

Computer Science

A New Approach to Real-Time Commercial Vehicle Monitoring

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

August 1, 2006 - July 31, 2008

Principal Investigator

Stephen Ritchie

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5440
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Freight, Logistics, & Supply Chain Intelligent Transportation Systems, Emerging Technologies, & Big Data

Team Departmental Affiliation

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Transportation Energy Policy and Urban Transportation: Policy Impacts on Travel Demand and Transportation Safety

Status

Complete

Project Timeline

January 1, 2007 - July 31, 2008

Principal Investigator

Kenneth Small

Project Team

Chun Kon (Cecilia) Kim

Sponsor, Program & Award Number

Caltrans // UCTC Caltrans Match: SA5705
(Subcontract to UC Berkeley)

Areas of Expertise

Transportation Economics, Funding, & Finance

Team Departmental Affiliation

Economics

Posts navigation

Older posts
Newer posts
When autocomplete results are available use up and down arrows to review and enter to go to the desired page. Touch device users, explore by touch or with swipe gestures.

Recent Posts

  • TRIP Student Spotlight: Kai Friedrich
  • PRIME Student Spotlight: Ryan Shaffie
  • TRIP Student Spotlight: Charlotte Dunlap
  • PRIME Student Spotlight: Kingston Wu
  • Faculty Spotlight: Dr. Michael Hyland

Recent Comments

No comments to show.

Archives

  • June 2026
  • January 2026
  • November 2025
  • October 2025
  • September 2025
  • August 2025
  • July 2025
  • June 2025
  • May 2025
  • February 2025
  • January 2025
  • October 2024
  • September 2024
  • August 2024
  • July 2024
  • June 2024
  • May 2024
  • April 2024
  • February 2024
  • December 2023
  • November 2023
  • September 2023
  • April 2023
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • August 2021
  • April 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018

Categories

  • Award
  • News
  • Research in Motion
  • Spotlight

Anteater Instruction and Research Bldg (AIRB)
Irvine, CA 92697
Phone: 949-824-5989 | Fax: 949-824-8385

  • linkedin
Subscribe to the ITS- Irvine mailing list Subscribe to Events Calendar

About

  • Leadership
  • Affiliated Centers
  • ITS-Irvine Policies
  • Contact Us

Research

  • Areas of Expertise
  • Publications
  • Projects
  • Requests for Proposals

People

  • Researchers
  • Administrative Staff
  • Current Students
  • PhD Graduates
  • Past Faculty Associates

Press

  • News
  • Events

©2026 ITS-Irvine