conference paper

Evaluating the potential to predict activity types from GPS and GIS data

Proceedings of the 86th annual meeting of the transportation research board

Publication Date

January 1, 2007

Abstract

Current travel forecasting models have had limited sensitivity to policy decisions. One of the primary challenges is limitations in the primary data source, the daily travel diary (e.g., accuracy and sample size). The daily travel diary has known problems with underreporting, time inaccuracies, respondent fatigue, and other human errors. The Global Positioning System (GPS) has been recently used to supplement the daily travel diary. As GPS becomes more accurate, reliable, and cost effective, could it entirely replace the daily travel diary? GPS devices can be used to record times and locations of each activity and the trips in between. To use GPS data to replace the daily travel diary one needs to predict the activity types. The goal of this research is to test the feasibility of a model that predicts activity types based solely on: (1) GPS data from devices placed on the individualâ??s vehicle or person, (2) Land use data, such as location type, expressed as GIS data, and (3) Individual and household demographic data. This report summarizes models developed with surrogate geo-coded data using discriminant analysis and classification/ regression trees. The models predicted in which of 26 different activity types the individual participated. Accuracy for the best model was: (1) 63% for out of home activities (2) 79% when including the â??at homeâ?? activity (3) 72% considering that GPS data may miss as much as 10% of trips Since travel diaries have known underreporting problems as high as 30%, GPS data with the model developed seems competitive.

Suggested Citation
Patrick Tracy McGowen and Michael G. McNally (2007) “Evaluating the potential to predict activity types from GPS and GIS data”, in Proceedings of the 86th annual meeting of the transportation research board, p. 22p.

conference paper

System performance and controller design of the PI-ALINEA ramp metering scheme

Proceedings of the 95th annual meeting of the transportation research board

Publication Date

January 1, 2016

Abstract

Ramp metering (RM) has been deployed for decades and it is considered an efficient technique to control lane-drop bottlenecks by limiting ramp demand and avoiding the so-called capacity-drop phenomena, drop in the downstream flux that occurs when queues form up- stream of bottleneck. In this study, the authors use a simple link queue model to describe traffic dynamics inside a merge zone with an ordinary differential equation, which combines a capacity drop model and a proportional-integral feedback control algorithm (PI-ALINEA). This enables us to analytically study the system performance and controller design for the ramp metering problem. First they analyze the systemâ??s equilibrium states, their stability, and transition subject to varying demand levels. They consider impacts of both fixed and dynamical metering rates on the equilibrium states of the system and examine the reachability of the system. They further analyze the closed-loop systems and design parameters of PI-ALINEA such that the system can be stabilized at the optimal state at a high demand level. With numerical examples they verify the analytical results with respect to the systemâ??s stability and robustness.

Suggested Citation
Felipe Augusto de Souza and Wenlong Jin (2016) “System performance and controller design of the PI-ALINEA ramp metering scheme”, in Proceedings of the 95th annual meeting of the transportation research board, p. 24p.

working paper

A Dynamic Model of Car Fuel Type Choice and Mobility

Publication Date

August 1, 1990

Working Paper

UCI-ITS-WP-90-7, UCI-ITS-AS-WP-90-1

Areas of Expertise

Abstract

The first question addressed in this research is: how is fuel type choice related to car mobility measured, where mobility is measured in terms of overall usage (kilometers per year) and commuting distance? Causality can be anticipated in both directions: a high travel demand might explain the purchase of a car with lower fuel costs, but the ownership of such a car might result in more travel. The second question is: what are the influences of commuting subsidies, public transport season tickets, income and other background sociodemographic variables on fuel type choice and car mobility? A joint continuous/discrete choice demand model is specified in terms of a set of dynamic simultaneous equations. The endogenous (dependent) variables are car fuel type, car usage, and commuting distance, each measured at two points in time. Car fuel type is treated as a three category discrete variable ordered in terms of fuel cost; usage is a continuous variable; and commuting distance is a censored continuous variable (having the censoring value zero for households with no workers outside the home location). The model is restricted to single-car households, and is estimated on a pooled sample of the Dutch National Mobility Panel for the years 1984-1988. Elasticities are calculated for each endogenous variable as a function of the other endogenous variables and certain exogenous variables.

Suggested Citation
Leo J.G. van Wissen and Thomas F. Golob (1990) A Dynamic Model of Car Fuel Type Choice and Mobility. Working Paper UCI-ITS-WP-90-7, UCI-ITS-AS-WP-90-1. Institute of Transportation Studies, Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2nr6n9d4.

research report

Designing a Transit-Feeder System Using Bikesharing and Peer-to-Peer Ridesharing

Abstract

Peer-to-peer (P2P) ridesharing is a relatively new concept that aims at providing a sustainable method for transportation in urban areas. This research is on the second phase of a sequence of projects that follows the previously funded UCConnect project titled “Promoting Peer-to-Peer Ridesharing Services as Transit System Feeders”. In this phase, the study constructs a multimodal network, which includes P2P ridesharing, transit and city bike-sharing. The research develops schemes to provide travel alternatives, routes and information across multiple modes in the network. In addition, the authors develop a mobile application that demonstrates the research in the context of Los Angeles, CA, by using a combination of subway transit lines, proposed P2P ridesharing, and bikesharing to provide multi-modal itineraries to users. The Los Angeles Metro’s Red and Gold line subway rail and the downtown bike-share system are included in the network for a case study. The study includes a simulation of the operation of the combined system that provides travel alternatives during morning peak hours for multiple riders. The results indicate that a multi-modal network would expand the coverage of public transit. Rideshaiing and bike-sharing could both act as transit feeders when properly.

Suggested Citation
R. Jayakrishnan, Michael G. McNally, JIANGBO YU, Daisik Nam, Dingtong Yang and Sunghi An (2018) Designing a Transit-Feeder System Using Bikesharing and Peer-to-Peer Ridesharing. Final Report CA17-3135. ITS-Irvine. Available at: https://dot.ca.gov/-/media/dot-media/programs/research-innovation-system-information/documents/final-reports/ca17-3135-finalreport-a11y.pdf.

published journal article

Exposure measurement error in air pollution studies: the impact of shared, multiplicative measurement error on epidemiological health risk estimates

Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health

Publication Date

June 1, 2020

Author(s)

Mariam S. Girguis, Lianfa Li, Fred Lurmann, Jun Wu, Carrie Breton, Frank Gilliland, Daniel Stram, Rima Habre

Abstract

Spatiotemporal air pollution models are increasingly being used to estimate health effects in epidemiological studies. Although such exposure prediction models typically result in improved spatial and temporal resolution of air pollution predictions, they remain subject to shared measurement error, a type of measurement error common in spatiotemporal exposure models which occurs when measurement error is not independent of exposures. A fundamental challenge of exposure measurement error in air pollution assessment is the strong correlation and sometimes identical (shared) error of exposure estimates across geographic space and time. When exposure estimates with shared measurement error are used to estimate health risk in epidemiological analyses, complex errors are potentially introduced, resulting in biased epidemiological conclusions. We demonstrate the influence of using a three-stage spatiotemporal exposure prediction model and introduce formal methods of shared, multiplicative measurement error (SMME) correction of epidemiological health risk estimates. Using our three-stage ensemble learning-based nitrogen oxides (NOx) exposure prediction model, we quantified SMME. We conducted an epidemiological analysis of wheeze risk in relation to NOx exposure among school-aged children. To demonstrate the incremental influence of exposure modeling stage, we iteratively estimated the health risk using assigned exposure predictions from each stage of the NOx model. We then determined the impact of SMME on the variance of health risk estimates under various scenarios. Depending on the stage of the spatiotemporal exposure model used, we found that wheeze odds ratio ranged from 1.16 to 1.28 for an interquartile range increase in NOx. With each additional stage of exposure modeling, the health effect estimate moved further away from the null (OR = 1). When corrected for observed SMME, the health effects confidence intervals slightly lengthened, but our epidemiological conclusions were not altered. When the variance estimate was corrected for the potential “worst case scenario” of SMME, the standard error further increased, having a meaningful influence on epidemiological conclusions. Our framework can be expanded and used to understand the implications of using exposure predictions subject to shared measurement error in future health investigations.

Suggested Citation
Mariam S. Girguis, Lianfa Li, Fred Lurmann, Jun Wu, Carrie Breton, Frank Gilliland, Daniel Stram and Rima Habre (2020) “Exposure measurement error in air pollution studies: the impact of shared, multiplicative measurement error on epidemiological health risk estimates”, Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 13(6), pp. 631–643. Available at: 10.1007/s11869-020-00826-6.

Phd Dissertation

Integration of Weigh-In-Motion and Inductive Signature Data for Truck Body Classification

Abstract

Transportation agencies tasked with forecasting freight movements, creating and evaluating policy to mitigate transportation impacts on infrastructure and air quality, and furnishing the data necessary for performance driven investment depend on quality, detailed, and ubiquitous vehicle data. Unfortunately, commercial vehicle data is either missing or expensive to obtain from current resources. To overcome the drawbacks of existing commercial vehicle data collection tools and leverage the already heavy investments into existing sensor systems, a novel approach of integrating two existing data collection devices to gather high resolution truck data – Weigh-in-motion (WIM) systems and advanced inductive loop detectors (ILD) is developed in this dissertation. Each source provides a unique data set that when combined produces a synergistic data source that is particularly useful for truck body class modeling. Modelling truck body class, rather than axle configuration, provides more detailed depictions of commodity and industry level truck movements. Since body class is closely linked to commodity carried, drive and duty cycle, and other operating characteristics, it is inherently useful for each of the above mentioned applications. In this work the physical integration including hardware and data collection procedures undertaken to develop a series of truck body class models is presented. Approximately 35,000 samples consisting of photo, WIM, and ILD signature data were collected and processed representing a significant achievement over previous ILD signature models which were limited to around 1,500 commercial vehicle records. Three families of models were developed, each depicting an increasing level of input data and output class resolution. The first uses WIM data to estimate body class volumes of five semi-trailer body types and individual predictions of two tractor body classes for vehicles with five axle tractor trailer configurations. The trailer model produces volume errors of less than 10% while the tractor model resulted in a correct classification rate (CCR) of 92.7%. The second model uses ILD signatures to predict 47 vehicle body classes using a multiple classifier system (MCS) approach coupled with the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) for preprocessing the training data samples. Tests show the model achieved CCR higher than 70% for 34 of the body classes. The third and most complex model combines WIM and ILD signatures using to produce 63 body class designations, 52 with CCR greater than 70%. To highlight the contributions of this work, several applications using body class data derived from the third model are presented including a time of day analysis, average payload estimation, and gross vehicle weight distribution estimation.

Suggested Citation
Sarah Vavrik Hernandez (2014) Integration of Weigh-In-Motion and Inductive Signature Data for Truck Body Classification. UC Irvine. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/73137048 (Accessed: October 12, 2023).

working paper

Multiply Imputed Sampling Weights for Consistent Inference with Panel Attrition

Publication Date

March 1, 2003

Abstract

This chapter demonstrates a new methodology for correcting panel data models for attrition bias. The method combines Rubin’s Multiple Imputations technique with Manski and Lerman’s Weighted Exogenous Sample Maximum Likelihood Estimator (WESMLE). Simple Hausman tests for the presence of attrition bias are also derived. We demonstrate the technique using a dynamic commute mode choice model estimated from the University of California Transportation Center’s Southern California Transportation Panel. The methodology is simpler to use than standard maximum likelihood-based procedures. It can be easily modified to use with many panel data estimation and forecasting procedures.

published journal article

The role of extreme heat exposure on premature rupture of membranes in Southern California: A study from a large pregnancy cohort

Environment International

Publication Date

March 1, 2023

Author(s)

Anqi Jiao, Yi Sun, David A. Sacks, Chantal Avila, Vicki Chiu, John Molitor, Jiu-Chiuan Chen, Kelly T Sanders, John T Abatzoglou, Jeff Slezak, Tarik Benmarhnia, Darios Getahun, Jun Wu

Abstract

Background Significant mortality and morbidity in pregnant women and their offspring are linked to premature rupture of membranes (PROM). Epidemiological evidence for heat-related PROM risk is extremely limited. We investigated associations between acute heatwave exposure and spontaneous PROM. Methods We conducted this retrospective cohort study among mothers in Kaiser Permanente Southern California who experienced membrane ruptures during the warm season (May-September) from 2008 to 2018. Twelve definitions of heatwaves with different cut-off percentiles (75th, 90th, 95th, and 98th) and durations (≥ 2, 3, and 4 consecutive days) were developed using the daily maximum heat index, which incorporates both daily maximum temperature and minimum relative humidity in the last gestational week. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted separately for spontaneous PROM, term PROM (TPROM), and preterm PROM (PPROM) with zip codes as the random effect and gestational week as the temporal unit. Effect modification by air pollution (i.e., PM2.5 and NO2), climate adaptation measures (i.e., green space and air conditioning [AC] penetration), sociodemographic factors, and smoking behavior was examined. Results In total, we included 190,767 subjects with 16,490 (8.6%) spontaneous PROMs. We identified a 9–14% increase in PROM risks associated with less intense heatwaves. Similar patterns as PROM were found for TPROM and PPROM. The heat-related PROM risks were greater among mothers exposed to a higher level of PM2.5 during pregnancy, under 25 years old, with lower education and household income level, and who smoked. Even though climate adaptation factors were not statistically significant effect modifiers, mothers living with lower green space or lower AC penetration were at consistently higher heat-related PROM risks compared to their counterparts. Conclusion Using a rich and high-quality clinical database, we detected harmful heat exposure for spontaneous PROM in preterm and term deliveries. Some subgroups with specific characteristics were more susceptible to heat-related PROM risk.

Suggested Citation
Anqi Jiao, Yi Sun, David A. Sacks, Chantal Avila, Vicki Chiu, John Molitor, Jiu-Chiuan Chen, Kelly T Sanders, John T Abatzoglou, Jeff Slezak, Tarik Benmarhnia, Darios Getahun and Jun Wu (2023) “The role of extreme heat exposure on premature rupture of membranes in Southern California: A study from a large pregnancy cohort”, Environment International, 173, p. 107824. Available at: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.107824.

published journal article

Solving the bicriteria traffic equilibrium problem with variable demand and nonlinear path costs

Applied Mathematics and Computation

Publication Date

December 1, 2010

Author(s)

Suggested Citation
Anthony Chen, Jun-Seok Oh, Dongjoo Park and Will Recker (2010) “Solving the bicriteria traffic equilibrium problem with variable demand and nonlinear path costs”, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 217(7), pp. 3020–3031. Available at: 10.1016/j.amc.2010.08.035.

published journal article

Use of Radioisotope Ratios of Lead for the Identification of Historical Sources of Soil Lead Contamination in Santa Ana, California

Toxics

Publication Date

June 1, 2022

Author(s)

Shahir Masri, Alana M. W. LeBrón, Michael D. Logue, Patricia Flores, Abel Ruiz, Abigail Reyes, Juan Manuel Rubio, Jun Wu

Abstract

Lead (Pb) is an environmental neurotoxicant that has been associated with a wide range of adverse health conditions, and which originates from both anthropogenic and natural sources. In California, the city of Santa Ana represents an urban environment where elevated soil lead levels have been recently reported across many disadvantaged communities. In this study, we pursued a community-engaged research approach through which trained “citizen scientists” from the surrounding Santa Ana community volunteered to collect soil samples for heavy metal testing, a subset of which (n = 129) were subjected to Pb isotopic analysis in order to help determine whether contamination could be traced to specific and/or anthropogenic sources. Results showed the average 206Pb/204Pb ratio in shallow soil samples to be lower on average than deep samples, consistent with shallow samples being more likely to have experienced historical anthropogenic contamination. An analysis of soil Pb enrichment factors (EFs) demonstrated a strong positive correlation with lead concentrations, reinforcing the likelihood of elevated lead levels being due to anthropogenic activity, while EF values plotted against 206Pb/204Pb pointed to traffic-related emissions as a likely source. 206Pb/204Pb ratios for samples collected near historical urban areas were lower than the averages for samples collected elsewhere, and plots of 206Pb/204Pb against 206Pb/207 showed historical areas to exhibit very similar patterns to those of shallow samples, again suggesting lead contamination to be anthropogenic in origin, and likely from vehicle emissions. This study lends added weight to the need for health officials and elected representatives to respond to community concerns and the need for soil remediation to equitably protect the public.

Suggested Citation
Shahir Masri, Alana M. W. LeBrón, Michael D. Logue, Patricia Flores, Abel Ruiz, Abigail Reyes, Juan Manuel Rubio and Jun Wu (2022) “Use of Radioisotope Ratios of Lead for the Identification of Historical Sources of Soil Lead Contamination in Santa Ana, California”, Toxics, 10(6), p. 304. Available at: 10.3390/toxics10060304.