Abstract

While the world relies on the combustion of petroleum based fuels to power more than 90% of its transportation, three principal forcing functions are creating a the need to transition to alternative transportation fuels: (1) The impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the global climate; (2) urban air pollution; and (3) energy security. It is increasingly recognized that meeting future greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction, air quality, and energy security goals will require that the future transportation mix include hydrogen in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Transitioning to alternatives like hydrogen will require business and policy leaders to invest in new infrastructure cognizant of future energy and environment goals. An advanced planning methodology can play a vital role in this process by delineating the impacts of fully built-out infrastructure scenarios relative to long-term environment and energy security goals, and facilitating the identification of preferred infrastructure roll-out scenarios, thus targeting investments to where they will be most effective. Until now an integrated planning capability for the deployment of alternative transportation fuels has not been available. This research develops and demonstrates the utility of such a planning tool with a focus on hydrogen as a transportation fuel. The tool is then exercised to show that: * A transition to a fully built-out hydrogen infrastructure scenario leads to significant improvements in urban air quality. Reductions in peak 8-hour average ozone and 24-hour PM2.5 of 10% and 15% respectively are observed. * Greenhouse gas reductions on the order 63% compared to gasoline internal combustion engine of are observed for hydrogen infrastructure scenarios where FCEVs reach a 75% share of passenger vehicles. * Compared to the number of existing gasoline stations, a fraction of the number of hydrogen fueling stations (12–15%) can provide a similar level of accessibility for drivers in a specific city used as an example. Community statistics inform the rollout order for hydrogen fueling stations. * Systematic planning optimizes both the economic and environmental impact of hydrogen infrastructure by targeting investments to where they will be most effective in meeting renewable hydrogen standards and providing customer accessibility to hydrogen fueling stations.