journal article preprint

A Transactions Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles

Abstract

The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a micro simulation demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in California. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. The choice model specification differs from past studies by directly modeling vehicle transactions rather than vehicle holdings. The model is calibrated using stated preference data from a new study of 4747 urban California households. These results are potentially useful to public transportation and energy agencies in their evaluation of alternatives to current gasoline-powered vehicles. The findings are also useful to manufacturers faced with designing and marketing alternative-fuel vehicles as well as to utility companies who need to develop long-run demand side management planning strategies.

working paper

Commercial Fleet Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles

Abstract

Fleet demand for alternative-fuel vehicles (“AFVs” operating on fuels such as electricity, compressed natural gas, or methanol) is investigated through an analysis of a 1994 survey of 2,000 fleet sites in California. This survey gathered information on site characteristics, awareness of mandates and incentives for AFV operation, and AFV purchase intentions. The survey also contained stated preference tasks in which fleet decision makers simulated fleet-replacement purchases by indicating how they would allocate their choices across a “selector list” of hypothetical future vehicles. A discrete choice model was estimated to obtain preference tradeoffs for fuel types and other vehicle attributes. The overall tradeoff between vehicle range and vehicle capital cost in the sample was $80 per mile of range, but with some variation by fleet sector. tradeoff The availability (density) of off-site alternative fuel stations was important to fleet operators, indicating that fleets are willing to trade off more fuel infrastructure for changes in other attributes, e.g., increased capital or operating costs, or more limited vehicle range. Public fleets (local and county government) were the most sensitiv the capital cost of new vehicles. Along with schools, they are the only fleet sector where reduced tailpipe emission levels are a significant predictor of vehicle choice. Fleet operators in the private sector base their vehicle selection less on environmental concerns than on practical operational needs.

working paper

The Direct and Indirect Economic Effects of Transportation Infrastructure

Publication Date

February 29, 1996

Author(s)

Abstract

This paper examines how road and highway investments redistribute economic activity by dividing the economic impacts of transportation infrastructure into a direct and an indirect effect. The direct effect is the impact near a street or highway. The indirect effect is any impact that occurs at locations more distant from the corridor.

To be more specific, for purposes of this paper, the direct effect is the economic impact within the same jurisdiction that contains the street or highway. The indirect effect is the economic impact outside of the jurisdiction that contains the street or highway. Since this paper uses data on California counties, the direct economic effect of a county’s transportation infrastructure includes economic impacts within the same county. The indirect effect is any impact that street or highway capital in one county has on economic conditions in other counties.

Those studies that examine economic impacts near particular corridors ( e.g. Seskin 1990; Weisbrod and Beckwith 1992) measure only a direct effect. 1 Yet, as Forkenbrock and Foster (1990) persuasively argue, nearby economic impacts are only part of the story. This paper uses data on street and highway infrastructure in California counties from 1969 through 1988 to verify the existence of both a direct and an indirect effect of road and highway capital. The results show that ground transportation infrastructure has partially opposing direct and indirect effects. This suggests that, as both Forkenbrock and Foster (1990) and Mohring and Harwitz (1962) hypothesized, some of the economic activity associated with transportation infrastructure investments would have occurred elsewhere had the road or highway not been built.

working paper

Urban Transportation

Publication Date

January 31, 1996

Author(s)

Abstract

Cities exist because they enable people to take advantage of economies of agglomeration, where spatial proximity facilitates productivity-enhancing cooperation. Transportation defines proximity and therefore determines how economies of agglomeration are realized. The functioning of the transportation sector, therefore, is central to the functioning of the urban economy. 

In simplified urban spatial models, transportation is usually assumed to be a linear function of distance. In real cities, of course, it is more complex. Transportation facilities are provided in the form of networks, and the amenities and capacity they provide are subject to complex choices and often to economies of scale. 

Urban transportation therefore involves important nonlinearities in two ways: in its purpose and in its form of provision. Under such conditions, there is ample room for market failures and it is not surprising that public intervention plays a heavy role. But public policy failures are common too, and many of the issues currently at the forefront of urban transportation policy involve how to make public intervention more beneficial. In particular, to what extent can market mechanisms be relied upon, either unregulated or as models for public activities? 

In this chapter, we examine the role that economic analysis plays in analyzing such questions. We focus heavily on highway transportation in private vehicles, just as do actual travelers. Many people have argued that travel in private motor vehicles is overemphasized due to a neglect of its full social costs. We examine in detail three such costs: congestion (and the related investments in infrastructure capacity), air pollution, and accidents. Next, we examine public transit as an alternative to the automobile, taking up the question of the effects and merits of subsidies. Throughout, we focus on analytic methods and findings that bear on current policy issues, as well as the factual basis for policy analysis.

working paper

The Smog-Reduction Road: Remote Sensing versus The Clean Air Act

Publication Date

January 31, 1996

Author(s)

Abstract

The 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act mandated that local governments that violate federal ozone (urban smog) standards abide by a dizzying array of regulations, many of the most controversial of which–centralized state inspection and maintenance programs, carpooling requirements, zero- emission vehicle sales quotas, use of alternative fuels, and new-vehicle emission standards–are intended to control automobile emissions.

working paper

Enhancements To A Simulation Framework For Analyzing Urban Traffic Networks With Atis/atms

Abstract

This report focuses on the DYNASMART simulation program presents a model that is capable of simulating large urban networks under various Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) and Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) strategies. It includes modules for driver responses to information and for capturing the dynamics of the network paths. The research also included the simulation study of a network in Orange County, California, where the benefits from candidate ATIS and ATMS strategies were evaluated. The DYNASMART model has evolved into a flexible tool that can be applied to evaluate information and control strategies in realistic urban networks in an efficient manner.

Phd Dissertation

An Empirical Study of Alternative Fuel Vehicle Choice by Commercial Fleets: Lessons in Transportation Choices, and Public Agencies' Organization

Abstract

The concern about air pollution has led government agencies to design and implement mandates to replace some commercial fleets’ gasoline vehicles with Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs). In Part One of this dissertation, I investigate the diffusion of AFV’s in the commercial sector. Commercial fleets are frequently the first target of government regulation because policy agencies can target a large number of vehicles while regulating fewer establishments relative to the household sector. Using stated preference survey data from over 2000 commercial and local government fleets in California, I estimate multinomial logit and nested logit models of fuel choice that predict the probability of choosing each type of AFV. Given certain assumptions about vehicle technology, these models predict that starting in year 2010, almost 17% of new vehicle purchases by the commercial and local government fleets will be electric, about 20% will be compressed natural gas, and almost 21% will be methanol vehicles.

I find that fuel choice probabilities differ depending on the market structure. Public agencies seem to be more AFV friendly than private firms. Important factors in fleet vehicle choice are the degree of familiarity of the firm’s staff with the AFV operation, the size of the establishment, government regulations, and the availability of the refueling infrastructure.

In Part Two, I review hypotheses about the determinants of local government agencies’ efficiency and use the stated preference survey data to test these hypotheses. Public choice models predict systematic differences among government agencies regarding their cost considerations and sensitivity to environmental issues. The empirical evidence identifies two factors that affect government agencies’ performance. The first factor is jurisdiction: an agency that has a more rigid boundary, such as a city or a county, seems to operate more efficiently than an agency that has more flexible geographic boundaries, as is the case with the special districts. The second factor is direct citizen voting: an agency director who is subject to re-election seems to coordinate a more efficient agency operation than one that is appointed to the job as a career position.

working paper

A Transaction Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles

Publication Date

December 31, 1995

Author(s)

Abstract

The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a mlcro-slmulatlon demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in Cahforma. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by ume of day for electric vehicles. The choice model specification differs from past studies by directly modehng vehicle transactions rather than vehlcle holdings. The model Is calibrated using stated preference data from a new study of 4,747 urban Califorma households. These results are potentially useful to public transportation and energy agencles m their evaluation of alternatives to current gasoline-powered vehicles. The findings are also useful to manufacturers faced with designLug and marketing alternauve-fuel vehicles as well as to utility companies who need to develop long-run demand-side management plamung strategies

working paper

Homeward Bound: Food-Related Transportation Strategies in Low Income and Transit Dependent Communities

Abstract

In 1993, a UCLA research team published a comprehensive study of the food system, Seeds of Change: Strategies for Food Security for the Inner City. The study included a detailed case study evaluating the ability of the food system to meet the needs of the residents of one South Central Los Angeles neighborhood. As part of that evaluation, the study documented a wide range of food insecurity indicators:

– 27% of area residents reported they went hungry an average of five days every month;

– The absence of nearby supermarkets was compounded by lower than average vehicle ownership. Further, bus lines did not correspond to market location. As a result, the lack of transportation for food buying purposes was defined by residents as a major community problem;

– Food prices for residents of the case study area – who spent 36% of their annual income on food – averaged $275 more per year than residents of a selected suburban area who spent 12% of their income on food;

– The lack of fresh quality produce illustrated the issue of nutritional deficiencies and related health and learning problems that are endemic in low income areas.

working paper

Geography and Public Infrastructure

Publication Date

December 31, 1995

Author(s)

Abstract

This paper examines the possibility of negative output spillovers from public infrastructure. A model of productive public capital shows that, when input factors are mobile, public infrastructure investments in one location can draw production away from other locations. In a linear production function framework, this effect would be manifested as a negative output spillover from public capital. Using data for California counties from 1969 through 1988, such negative spillover effects are shown to exist in the case of highway and street capital. The data show that changes in county output are positively associated with changes in highway and street capital within the same county, but output changes are negatively associated with changes in highway and street capital in other counties.