research report

Driving California's Transportation Emissions to Zero

Abstract

The purpose of this report is to provide a research-driven analysis of options that can put California on a pathway toachieve carbon-neutral transportation by 2045. The report comprises thirteen sections. Section 1 provides an overview ofthe major components of transportation systems and how those components interact. Section 2 discusses the impacts theCOVID-19 pandemic has had on transportation. Secti on 3 discusses  California’s current transportation-policy landscape.These three sections were previously published as a synthesis report. Section 4 analyzes the different carbon scenarios,focusing  on “business as usual”  (BAU ) and Low  Carbon (LC1). Section 5 provides an overview of key policy mechanisms toutilize in decarbonizing transportation. Section 6 is an analysis of the light-duty vehicle sector, section 7 is the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sectors, section 8 is reducing and electrifying vehicle miles traveled, and section 9 is an analysis oftransportation fuels and their lifecycle. The following sections are an analysis of external costs and benefits: section 10analyzes the health impacts of decarbonizing transportation, section 11 analyzes equity and environmental justice, andsection 12 analyzes workforce and labor impacts. Finally, future research needs are provided in section 13. The studyoverall finds that cost-effective pathways to carbon-neutral transportation in California exist, but that they will requiresignificant acceleration in a wide variety of policies.

research report

Modeling and Analyzing Cost Overruns, Delays, and Cancellations in Senate Bill 1 Projects

Abstract

In 2017, California passed Senate Bill 1 (SB1) to bolster transportation infrastructure funding. Using data primarily from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans)’s official SB1 progress reports, this report analyzes the severity of cost overruns, delays, and cancellations across SB1 Transportation Projects. Although events such as the COVID-19 pandemic likely caused some of these negative outcomes, the statistical models developed for this analysis show consistent patterns of overruns associated with fiscal periods, programs, and geographic locations. Results indicate that the common 20% contingency is generally insufficient, indicating the need for better risk estimation in project planning. Results also suggest amplifying data transparency on project performance and re-evaluating project selection criteria to avoid rewarding underestimation of project costs and duration and penalizing accurate estimation.

research report

Improving the Distribution of Densities in Southern California

Abstract

Many of the biggest transportation challenges in Southern California arise not due to its overall density but due to the lack of concentration of densities. While recent years have witnessed increasing efforts to expand public transit services and encourage compact development in transit areas, there is a dearth of research providing support for improving the distribution of densities in the region. This project adopts a simultaneous equation modeling (SEM) approach to reveal the complexity of parcel-level (residential) land use intensification dynamics in a five-county Southern California metropolitan region with emphasis on the importance of reciprocal interactions between current and planned land use changes and the critical role of public transit accessibility. Results suggest that residential densification and upzoning processes reinforce each other. Urban residential upzoning can significantly promote the probability of parcel-level residential densification, even though it does not always lead to an immediate market response in every location. More importantly, the residential density increases are found to induce further plan/zoning modifications in nearby areas, indicating the presence of feedback loops in this dynamic relationship. There is also evidence of the positive influence of public transit accessibility. Single-family residential land parcels with greater access to high-quality transit services show a higher level of densification and upzoning probabilities when all other conditions are held constant. Such positive effects are detected not only in existing high-quality transit areas but also in locations where public transit services will be available in the future.

Phd Dissertation

Zero Emission Shared-Use Autonomous Vehicles: A Deployment Construct and Associated Energy Grid and Environmental Impacts

Abstract

For decades, the leading cause of death for American youth has been the car accident, and the largest source of domestic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and many Criteria Air Pollutants (CAPs) has been the transportation sector. The advent of the autonomous vehicle in combination with Battery-Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) presents an opportunity to transcend both pernicious challenges. In particular, the evolution of safer and more efficient autonomous (i.e., robotic) driving behavior via vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication, increased use of electric vehicles, and greater access to affordable and convenient shared (i.e., pooled) rides portend societal benefits including a significant reduction in energy demand and associated pollution. This dissertation evaluates the impact of Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles (SAEVs, “Saves”) on the California energy grid, GHG emissions, and CAPs.

Vehicle-centric impacts (i.e., efficiency changes due to vehicle design and driving behavior) are measured using a vehicle design tool together with a microscopic traffic simulation model to (1) design prototype SAEVs, and (2) measure their energy efficiency for standard and eco-driving scenarios and an array of performance characteristics (e.g., different electric drivetrains, various communication protocols, etc.). Fleet-centric impacts (i.e., changes to vehicle allocation and usage) are measured using ArcGIS with a Caltrans travel demand model dataset to allocate and size SAEV stations, where SAEVs recharge/refuel and are sent to serve nearby trips in a hypothetical SAEV-deployment construct. The Holistic Energy Grid modelling tool (HiGRID) is used to measure SAEV impacts on the California electric grid and grid GHG and CAPs. The Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation Model (GREET) is used to measure corresponding transportation sector GHG and CAP impacts.

Vehicle-centric energy impacts from SAEV-enabled eco-driving and platooning averaged net efficiency improvements of approximately 6-18%. Fleet-centric impacts include VMT changes from -11% to +36%, largely depending on ridesharing. Depending on SAEV design and operation, over 375,000 metric tons of annual CO2-equivalent GHG emissions could be reduced by adopting the proposed SAEV-deployment construct in lieu of the projected conventionally-driven vehicle fleet. Corresponding CAP impacts include a net reduction of over 250 metric tons of annual NOx emissions.

policy brief

Navigating the Shift: Critical Insights of California Fleet Operators into Zero-Emission Technologies

Abstract

California is committed to transitioning heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) from diesel to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) like battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) by 2045, and in certain cases much sooner. Achieving this goal requires substantial efforts from various sectors, including vehicle manufacturers, infrastructure developers, and governments. It is particularly important to understand the perspectives of HDV fleet operators, as their viewpoints and willingness to adopt ZEVs will be critical to California’s success in this transition.
To better understand the perspective of fleet operators, we conducted in-depth interviews with 18 California HDV fleet operators, across various sectors and fleet sizes, on the viability of zero-emission fuels and vehicles over the next 10 to 20 years and the main motivators for, and barriers to, procuring ZEVs.

policy brief

SB1 Project Performance: Cost Overruns, Schedule Delays, and Cancellations

Abstract

The Road Repair and Accountability Act of 2017 (Senate Bill 1 or SB 1) aims to improve and enhance California’s transportation infrastructure. Like many infrastructure programs, however, there are concerns with project cost overruns, delays, and cancellations, as these can undermine program goals and negatively impact quality of life in California.
This brief highlights key findings from an analysis of quarterly Caltrans SB 1 project reports between 2018 and 2023 to provide insights into project costs, delays, and cancellations.

Phd Dissertation

Modeling and Planning for Future Multimodal Transportation with Household-owned Automated Vehicles

Abstract

Driverless (or fully-automated) vehicles (AVs) are expected to fundamentally change how individuals and households travel and how vehicles interact with roadway infrastructure. Privately-owned AVs (PAVs), when operated within households, offer travel options that distinguish them from conventional vehicles (CVs), such as remote parking, returning home to park, and serving other household members. These options—available through deadheading—can lead to an increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The goals of this dissertation are to (i) explore the expected travel patterns of PAVs, (ii) analyze their impacts on transportation system performance, and (iii) propose design and policy changes to mitigate the negative impacts of PAVs and leverage their benefits.In this context, this dissertation presents three models and corresponding case studies. First, I propose a parking assignment model to analyze the impact of PAV parking behavior on travel patterns and parking facility demand and performance. The case study finds that significant VMT increases occur due to PAVs traveling to remote parking locations after dropping off travelers at activity locations, and that balancing fees and capacities of parking spaces can reduce the extra VMT. Second, I introduce a new policy and infrastructure system aimed at reducing VMT that is similar to a park-and-ride (PNR) system. Instead of traditional fixed-route transit, my proposed system includes transfer stations where travelers can switch from their PAVs to on-demand, door-to-door shared-use AVs (SAVs) that enhance traveler convenience and service reliability. By optimizing transfer station locations, the case study demonstrates significant reductions in both VMT and vehicle hours traveled (VHT) within the region. Third, I extend the routing and scheduling of PAVs to the decision-making process within households. I introduce the Household Activity Pattern Problem with AV-enabled Intermodal Trips (HAPP-AV-IT) that incorporates SAV, public transit, and transit-based intermodal travel options. The case study results reveal that travelers are likely to choose long deadheading options, such as returning home, to optimize household vehicle operations. The model also demonstrates that intermodal trips can reduce both the household’s travel distance and overall travel costs. Although the precise performance of AVs on road networks remains uncertain, the findings of this dissertation suggest that additional VMT from PAV deadheading could negatively affect transportation systems. As we move closer to the era of widespread AV adoption, it becomes increasingly important for planners and researchers to develop policies and infrastructure systems that reduce PAV deadheading miles. The methodological advancements and practical insights presented in this dissertation provide a strong foundation for addressing these challenges and preparing for the transformative impact of AVs.

Phd Dissertation

Exploring novel security vulnerabilities and their safety implications in sensors and perception for autonomous systems

Publication Date

September 1, 2024

Associated Project

Author(s)

Abstract

Autonomous systems, particularly autonomous driving (AD), are rapidly developing in our society, driven by significant progress in perception systems with advanced deep neural networks (DNN) and sensors. Self-driving taxi services and robot delivery services are becoming increasingly common in major cities around the world. Despite their high perception capability in various challenging driving scenarios, it does not always mean high robustness in adversarial scenarios. DNN models, in particular, are known to be vulnerable to adversarial input perturbations, which can significantly affect the model output with only minor changes to the input data. Given the critical importance of road safety in AD vehicles, it is crucial to systematically understand the potential security vulnerabilities of DNN models and sensors in AD systems. My dissertation focuses on exploring these vulnerabilities and their safety implications in autonomous systems, specifically targeting two major AD sensors: cameras and LiDARs. Cameras are widely used in AD perception due to their affordability and the reliance on visual information in human driving, such as lane lines and traffic signs. However, camera inputs can be easily perturbed by various attack vectors, including physical stickers and laser or light reflections. LiDAR is one of the most innovative sensors in the past decade and plays a crucial role in higher automation levels such as Level-4 AD due to their ability to capture 3D surrounding information as point clouds. Nevertheless, LiDAR is fundamentally vulnerable to malicious lasers emitted by adversaries. In this dissertation, I present new practical attacks for these two types of sensors, evaluate the impact of these attacks, and explore potential defenses. By systematically analyzing the security implications at the DNN model level and the closed-loop autonomous driving level, my research aims to contribute to the development of more secure and safer autonomous systems. 

policy brief

What Challenges Can Arise from Coordinating Housing Development with Transportation?

Abstract

More systematic coordination between transportation and housing development is increasingly recognized as a promising strategy for creating more sustainable communities. One approach is to encourage higher density affordable housing developments near transit or in similarly transportation-efficient areas, such as locations with low vehicle miles traveled (VMT). However, little is known about how transportation access should be considered in guiding housing development, what challenges can arise from coordinating housing development with transportation, and what the state can do to better deal with these challenges and achieve more equitable residential densification.

This brief examines equity issues and other challenges that may arise in pursuing transportation-informed housing development. Specifically, it touches on the potential impacts of Senate Bill 743, which made it easier to build more housing in low VMT locations by shifting the way traffic impacts from new housing development are evaluated under the California Environmental Quality Act. It also explores ways to achieve more inclusive development in non-rail transit areas which have received less attention compared to rail transit areas.

research report

Assessing the Potential for Densification and VMT Reduction in Areas without Rail Transit Access

Abstract

While transportation infrastructure and efficiency should inform where to build more housing, little is known about how housing allocation and development processes can be coordinated more systematically with transportation. To date, transportation-housing coordination has often relied on the densification of areas near rail transit stations, putting heavy burdens on these locations and their residents. Much less attention has been paid to how densification can be achieved in a more equitable manner by encompassing other sites.

This report directs attention to non-rail locations, specifically low vehicle miles traveled (VMT) areas and bus corridors, and examines the challenges that can arise in promoting densification more broadly. It shows that data uncertainties can make it challenging to identify low VMT locations and that prioritizing only low VMT locations for residential development may have limited effectiveness in expanding housing opportunities in high opportunity areas. The report further explores ways to achieve more inclusive densification of non-rail transit areas and highlights the importance of anti-displacement strategies.