Local and regional planning entities are directing substantial employment and housing growth into transit corridors to achieve the sustainability goals of California Senate Bill 375. Despite the substantial focus on transit investment and infill growth, our knowledge base for understanding near-transit infill land use dynamics remains limited. This research will shed light on whether existing plans will be sufficient to encourage favorable land use changes which reorient growth into transit corridors by examining two critical dynamic processes: (1) transit system improvements/expansions and (2) associated land use changes, particularly infill and redevelopment dynamics. More specifically, the project will (a) develop a historical geo-database of the dynamic changes in transit systems and land use over the last two decades (i.e., 1990s and 2000s) in southern California, (b) identify key transit system and policy factors that can shape and re-shape land use patterns in surrounding areas, and (c) analyze infill and redevelopment dynamics associated with transit system improvements/expansions using a parcel- based land use change model. Results will provide insights into the expected nature and magnitude of impacts of urban rail transit system improvements/expansions on infill and growth, and will support on-going efforts to more effectively integrate transportation and land use planning.

Despite several policy interventions, bus ridership in Southern California is continuing to fall. For example, the bus ridership of the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) dropped by almost 19% although some improvement was observed recently on some revamped lines. A number of factors have been invoked to explain this decline, including changes in employment, demographics, housing, technology, and possibly an increase in vehicle registrations tied to California Assembly Bill 60 (AB 60). However, there has been no scholarly analysis of the impact of AB 60 on bus ridership in Southern California. The objective of this study is to analyze how recent (2014 to 2017) changes in OCTA bus ridership can be explained by changes in vehicle registrations in Orange County resulting partly from the implementation of AB 60 in 2015 and from the introduction by OCTA of its mobile ticketing App, after controlling for changes in transit supply, socio-economic variables, gas prices, and the built environment.