Abstract

phores, University of California, Irvine This paper evaluates the economic viability of transitioning from diesel to selected off-road electric construction vehicles through a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis coupled with a Monte Carlo analysis. As global climate change intensifies, the shift toward electric vehicles is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the construction sector, which comprises approximately 1.1% of global annual CO2 emissions. Electrifying off-road construction vehicles would also reduce PM2.5 and noise pollution but face challenges such as high acquisition costs and complex refueling logistics. Our analysis covers 20 models of wheel loaders and excavators, comparing electric equipment with their diesel counterparts. Projections for 2035, aligned with California’s executive order to significantly reduce emissions by that year, indicate that anticipated reductions in battery prices alone will not make the TCO of electric wheel loaders and excavators competitive with their diesel equivalents. This highlights the need for government incentives to facilitate this transition. This study contributes to the literature by providing an economic rationale for adopting off-road electric equipment in the construction sector and should be of interest to regulating agencies, rental firms, and construction companies.