journal article preprint

A Comparison of Time-use for Telecommuters, Potential Telecommuters, and Commuters during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, changes in daily activity-travel routines and time-use behavior, including the widespread adoption of telecommuting, have been manifold. This study considers how telecommuters have responded to the changes in activity-travel scheduling and time allocation. In particular, the research team considers how workers utilized time during the pandemic by comparing workers who telecommuted with workers who continued to commute. Commuters were segmented into those who worked in telecommutable jobs (potential telecommuters) and those who did not (commuters). Our empirical analysis suggested that telecommuters exhibited distinct activity participation and time use patterns from the commuter groups. It also supported the basic hypothesis that telecommuters were more engaged with in-home versus out-of-home activity compared to potential telecommuters and commuters. In terms of activity time use, telecommuters spent less time on work activities but more time on caring for household members, household chores, eating, socializing, and recreation activities than their counterparts. During weekdays, a majority of telecommuters did not travel and in general this group made fewer trips per day compared to the other two groups. Compared to telecommuters, potential telecommuters made more trips on both weekdays and weekends while non-telecommutable workers made more trips only on weekdays. The findings of this study provide initial insights on time use and the associated activity-travel behavior of both telecommuter and commuter groups during the pandemic.

research report

Telecommuting and the Open Future

Publication Date

January 6, 2024

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has generated renewed interest in how telecommuting can alter the workings of cities and regions, but there is little guidance on how to align planning practice with the new reality. This report synthesizes the research on telecommuting and its consequences to help planners better understand what effects may occur from the proliferation of telecommuting and what lessons can be drawn from research findings. Emphasis is on the broad relevance of telecommuting to many domains of planning, including housing, land use, community development, and inclusive place-making, while attention is paid to changes in travel demand, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and greenhouse gas emissions. The research suggests that telecommuting can occur in a variety of ways, and its impacts are largely dependent not only on the type/schedule of telecommuting but also on the built environment, transit accessibility, and other amenities/opportunities the location provides. The varying impacts reported in the research can be seen as an encouragement for planners to actively create a better future rather than merely responding to the rise of telecommuting. Given the breadth of telecommuting’s impacts, systematic coordination across various planning domains will be increasingly important. This report also calls for collaboration across cities to guide the ongoing transformation induced by telecommuting not in a way that leads to more residential segregation but in a way that provides more sustainable and inclusive communities.

policy brief

COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Influenced Bus Ridership Recovery

Abstract

COVID-19 has had lasting effects on transit ridership, with the worst declines seen in high-income, better educated, urban neighborhoods. However, declines among immigrant and/or low-income households was well documented prior to the pandemic, as more gained access to private vehicles. This has created a unique challenge for transit agencies to bring riders back to transit in cases where they may have already switched to traveling by car or consciously chose to make fewer trips. To better understand ridership during the pandemic, we documented the recovery of bus ridership in Los Angeles County and its relationship with COVID-19 vaccinations between April and December 2021, before the Omicron COVID-19 wave. We then developed a statistical model that relates LA Metro bus ridership as a percentage of October 2019 levels with the percent of adults fully vaccinated by ZIP code. We tested whether the relationship between vaccinations and bus ridership varied by two events: first, the full reopening of businesses in California and second, the wave of COVID transmission caused by the subsequentDelta variant.

Phd Dissertation

Exploring Trip Chaining Behavior in Activity-Transport Systems: Trip Chain Classification, Peak-period Travel Implications, and Ride-hailing's Role

Abstract

An activity-travel chain is a series of consecutive trips to multiple destinations. By influencing activity decisions (e.g., activity location, duration, and start time) and travel decisions (e.g., trip mode, route, and departure time), activity-travel chaining can directly impact roadway congestion, vehicle miles traveled by mode, transit ridership, energy consumption, and emissions of harmful pollutants. In this context, my dissertation uses the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and 2018-2019 Household Travel Survey from four Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to (i) identify distinct activity-travel chain types, (ii) quantify the effect of activity-travel chaining propensity on peak and off-peak person-miles traveled (PMT), and (iii) explore how activity-travel chain makers use emerging transportation modes (i.e., ride-hail). To perform these three analyses, I employ several statistical modeling techniques, including Latent Class Analysis (LCA), multi-level Poisson regression, structural equation modeling, and logistic regression. In Chapter 3, I identify four distinct types of activity-travel chains. The most representative type involves simple car-based activity-travel chains with short-duration stops, typically for maintenance activities. The classification also reveals one group that exclusively represents non-motorized transport (NMT)- and transit-based activity-travel chains. In addition to identifying distinct activity-travel chains, I also model the propensity of travelers to conduct each type of activity-travel chain. I find that travelers in households with children and older travelers more frequently make car-based activity-travel chains for maintenance activities. Moreover, travelers in single-member households, and travelers who are younger and male more frequently make NMT- and transit-based activity-travel chains for maintenance activities. I expect the identification of these distinct activity-travel chain types, and the models of propensity of travelers to perform each activity-travel chain type, to be useful in agent- and activity-based travel forecasting modeling frameworks. In Chapter 4, I investigate the structural relationship between activity-travel chaining propensity and motorized person-miles traveled (PMT) during the peak and off-peak periods of the day. Moreover, I differentiate between workers and non-workers. Using structural equation modeling techniques, and mediating factors I find that chaining of maintenance and discretionary activities increases peak motorized PMT for workers and non-workers, providing the strongest evidence in the literature that activity-travel chaining can exacerbate traffic congestion during peak travel periods. Moreover, I find possible substitution of maintenance activities (e.g., shopping, dining, etc.) in peak-hour with same/similar chained activities in off-peak hour. Finally, in Chapter 5, I analyze activity-travel chain mode choice and show that young persons, frequent transit users, and those having long-duration stops prefer ride-hailing over car. Also, activity-travel chain makers headed to healthcare and social/recreational activities have a particularly high tendency to use ride-hail. Understanding the use of ride-hailing in activity-travel chains should help in formulating policies to better align ride-hailing services with compatible activity-travel patterns and consequently improve accessibility and mobility. 

Phd Dissertation

Modeling Commute Behavior Dynamics in Response to Policy Changes: A Case Study from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Publication Date

November 30, 2023

Author(s)

Abstract

This dissertation introduces a novel model intended for integration within an Agent-Based Model (ABM) framework to dynamically estimate and predict workers’ commuting behaviors under various policy scenarios. The model is designed to aid policy-making by providing insight into commuting patterns and their potential responsiveness to policy interventions. In particular, the focus is on changes in Working from Home behavior due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The methodology encompasses a three-step process, starting with the identification of worker commuting preference classes. Employing an unconditional latent class analysis model, the study categorizes workers into distinct groups based on their telecommuting preferences and behaviors. This classification is foundational for understanding diverse work-related travel patterns. The second step is predicting class membership. Post-classification, the study considers demographic features to determine their impact on class membership. This analysis is critical for predicting shifts in commuting behavior in relation to demographic changes. Third, estimating commuter type within each commuter type class: This concluding step uses logistic regression to estimate the likelihood of an individual being a commuter, a hybrid commuter, or a telecommuter, with adaptability to policy changes for exploring varied outcomes. The study produced several key findings. First, diverse worker classes were identified: The analysis of the ASU Covid Future Panel Survey data revealed several distinct worker classes based on telecommuting experiences and preferences. These include a telecommuter class, a regular commuter class, pre-Covid home remote worker class, and a class exhibiting significant demographic changes during the pandemic. Particularly noteworthy is a class that shows a strong propensity to shift to high-frequency telecommuting under supportive policies, despite an initial preference for hybrid or regular commuting. Distinct class characteristics and predictors were identified within each class, serving as predictors for class membership. This finding is essential for understanding and predicting changes in commuting behaviors. The study also included an intra-class commuter type estimation and factor analysis to identify the factors influencing these classifications. This provides deeper insights into the motivations and constraints affecting commuting choices. 

research report

Transport Pricing Policies and Emerging Mobility Innovations

Abstract

Transportation pricing policies aim to manage vehicular demand for parking, dense urban areas, roadways, and highway lanes. Although pricing policies take various forms, most were designed in a world before the sharing economy and ride-sourcing companies. Hence, the efficacy of existing pricing policies in a world with shared mobility services requires further consideration. Moreover, future pricing policies designed to handle private vehicles and shared ride-sourcing vehicles must consider the behavior of both sets of travelers and vehicle fleets. This study develops a conceptual framework to support systems-level analysis of pricing policies for a world with private and shared vehicle usage. It qualitatively analyzes the impact of shared vehicles on the effectiveness of various pricing policies, while also considering the role of vehicle-to-infrastructure technology. This conceptual framework will support future research that uses activity-based travel demand and dynamic network assignment models to evaluate congestion pricing policies in an era of shared mobility. Additionally, the study presents a detailed review of the literature related to transportation pricing together with a trend analysis on congestion pricing policies in Transportation Research Board annual meeting titles and abstracts.

Phd Dissertation

Cellular signals for navigation 4g, 5g, and beyond

Publication Date

November 30, 2023

Associated Project

Author(s)

Abstract

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) have long been the cornerstone for positioning, navigation, and timing. Despite their widespread use, GNSS signals face vulnerabilities such as jamming, spoofing, and unreliable coverage in various environments like urban canyons, indoors, tunnels, and parking structures. These limitations make exclusive reliance on GNSS inadequate for the rigorous demands of future applications, including autonomous vehicles (AVs), intelligent transportation systems, and location-based services. To enhance GNSS performance in challenging settings, traditional methods have typically incorporated dead-reckoning sensors like inertial measurement units, lidars, or cameras. These sensors, however, accumulate errors over time and only offer navigation solutions within a local frame, relative to the user equipment’s (UE) initial position. In contrast, alternative signal-based approaches, known as signals of opportunity (SOPs) – encompassing AM/FM radio, satellite communication signals, digital television signals, Wi-Fi, and cellular – hold considerable promise as global navigation sources in GNSS-challenged environments. Among SOPs, cellular signals, particularly from third-generation (3G, code-division multiple access (CDMA)), fourth-generation (4G, long-term evolution (LTE)), and fifth-generation (5G, new radio (NR)) networks, stand out as potential navigation aids. Their navigation-friendly characteristics include ubiquity, geometric diversity, high carrier frequencies, spectral diversity, spatial diversity, broad bandwidth, strong signal strength, and free accessibility. Nevertheless, as SOPs are primarily designed for communication rather than navigation, utilizing cellular signals for navigational purposes presents several challenges. These include (1) the lack of specific low-level signal and error models for optimal state and parameter extraction for positioning and timing, (2) the absence of published robust, efficient, and reliable receiver architectures to generate navigation observables, (3) continual updates and changes in cellular protocols, and (4) the scarcity of frameworks for high-accuracy navigation using such signals. This dissertation addresses these challenges, focusing on cellular signals from 4G and 5G networks, with potential extensions to future cellular systems. The foundational contributions of this work are empirically validated on various platforms including ground vehicles (GVs), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and high-altitude aircraft, demonstrating GNSS-level navigation accuracy. 

policy brief

Evaluating Mixed Electric Vehicle and Conventional Fueled Vehicle Fleets for Last-mile Package Delivery

Phd Dissertation

Smoothing and Imputation of Longitudinal Vehicle Trajectory Data

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for processing vehicle trajectory data which are presented as a series of discrete positions of vehicles recorded over consecutive time intervals. The framework combines vehicle trajectory smoothing and imputation, ensuring that speeds and higher-order derivatives of positions are consistently defined as symplectic differences in positions, while adhering to physically meaningful bounds determined by traffic laws, drivers’ behaviors, and vehicle characteristics.

To remove the outliers and high-frequency noises in speeds and higher-order derivatives, we incorporate some basic principles, including internal consistency, bounded speeds and higher-order derivatives, and minimum MAE between the raw and smoothed positions, based on physical properties and empirical observations. We propose an iterative method. One iteration comprises four types of calculations: differentiation, correction, smoothing, and integration. We adopt the adaptive average method for correction, the Gaussian filter for smoothing, and minimizing the MAEs as the objective in integration. The efficacy of the method is numerically shown with the NGSIM data. However, it is mathematically challenging to demonstrate when the iterations converge or even that the iterations can converge, leading us to develop more mathematically tractable techniques that can either be proved to converge or get rid of iterations.

We then propose a simplified iterative moving average method that makes the ranges of the smoothed speeds, acceleration rates, and jerks align with physical meaning, while preserving the average speeds or total travel distance for a specified time duration segment of a vehicle’s trajectory. Theoretically, we prove that without termination, the speed converges to a constant value after an infinite number of iterations, ensuring the termination of our method and physically meaningful ranges in speeds and their derivatives. Numerically, we demonstrate the advantages of the method in achieving physically and behaviorally meaningful ranges by applying it to the NGSIM dataset and comparing the results with manually re-extracted data and traditional filtering methods.

As another extension of the first smoothing method, We propose a two-step quadratic programming method that incorporates insights into human behavior, particularly the tendency to minimize jerks during motion, and integrates prior position errors derived from pixel length in video images. This method operates without the need for iterative processes, facilitating a single-round solution. Mathematically, we establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions to the quadratic programming problems, thus ensuring the well-defined nature of the method. Numerically, using NGSIM data, we compare the method with an existing approach with respect to the manually re-extracted ones and show the robustness of the method upon the highD data.

In addition, we investigate the scenarios involving missing portions of trajectories. In the last part of this dissertation, we consider segment scenarios where leading and trailing vehicles’ trajectories are obtainable through mobile sensors, while those of intermediate vehicles require imputation based on detected entering and exiting times from loop detectors, and propose a three-step quadratic programming method for longitudinal trajectory imputation of fully sampled vehicles. The method ensures maintaining safe inter-vehicle spacing and adheres to physically meaningful speed, acceleration, and jerk ranges. Using NGSIM and highD data, we demonstrate the great performance of the method in imputing trajectories for three-, four-, five-, and six-vehicle platoons and illustrate its successful application in capturing the true conditions of a mixed-traffic system including 10% connected vehicles (CVs) and 10% CAVs.

published journal article

Will COVID-19 Jump-Start Telecommuting? Evidence from California

Abstract

Health concerns and government restrictions have caused a surge in work from home during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a sharp increase in telecommuting. However, it is not clear if it will perdure after the pandemic, and what socio-economic groups will be most affected. To investigate the impact of the pandemic on telecommuting, we analyzed a dataset collected for us at the end of May 2021 by Ipsos via a random survey of Californians in KnowledgePanel©, the largest and oldest probability-based panel in the US. Structural equation models used in this research account for car ownership and housing costs to explain telecommuting frequency before, during, and possibly after the pandemic. Research findings point to an additional 4.2% of California workers expect to engage in some level of telecommuting post-pandemic, which is substantial but possibly less than suggested in other studies. Some likely durable gains can be expected for Californians who work in management, business / finance / administration, and engineering / architecture / law / social sciences. Workers with more education started telecommuting more during the pandemic, a trend expected to continue post-pandemic. Full time work status has a negative impact on telecommuting frequency, and so does household size during and after the pandemic.