published journal article

Freight Transportation Derivatives Contracts: State of the Art and Future Developments

Abstract

In lean and demand-responsive logistics systems, orders need to be delivered rapidly, accurately, and reliably, even under demand uncertainty. Increasing burdens on the industry motivate the introduction of new methods to manage transportation service contracts. One way to hedge transportation capacity and cost volatility is to create derivative contracts. To date, ocean transportation is the only mode of transportation where this type of contract has been applied. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of freight transportation derivatives and to discuss some recent relevant research. We start by introducing the theory underlying derivative contracts, before reviewing the development of derivatives markets in the maritime industry. We then investigate the adoption of derivatives contracts in trucking (the dominant mode of freight transportation), which we call truckload options. A numerical example follows to illustrate how derivatives could help financially both shippers and carriers. Finally, this article discusses the conditions necessary for the emergence of a market for truckload options.

published journal article

Development of an Estimation Procedure for an Activity-Based Travel Demand Model

Abstract

In this article, we implement an estimation procedure for a particular mathematical programming activity-based model to estimate the relative importance of factors associated with spatial and temporal interrelationships among the out-of-home activities that motivate a household’s need or desire to travel. The method uses a genetic algorithm to estimate coefficient values of the utility function, based on a particular multidimensional sequence alignment method to deal with the nominal, discrete attributes of the activity/travel pattern (e.g., which household member performs which activity, which vehicle is used, sequencing of activities), and a time sequence alignment method to handle temporal attributes of the activity pattern (e.g., starting and ending time of each activity and/or travel). The estimation procedure is tested on data drawn from a well-known activity/travel survey.

published journal article

A mathematical programming formulation of the household activity rescheduling problem

research report

Driving California's Transportation Emissions to Zero

Abstract

The purpose of this report is to provide a research-driven analysis of options that can put California on a pathway toachieve carbon-neutral transportation by 2045. The report comprises thirteen sections. Section 1 provides an overview ofthe major components of transportation systems and how those components interact. Section 2 discusses the impacts theCOVID-19 pandemic has had on transportation. Secti on 3 discusses  California’s current transportation-policy landscape.These three sections were previously published as a synthesis report. Section 4 analyzes the different carbon scenarios,focusing  on “business as usual”  (BAU ) and Low  Carbon (LC1). Section 5 provides an overview of key policy mechanisms toutilize in decarbonizing transportation. Section 6 is an analysis of the light-duty vehicle sector, section 7 is the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sectors, section 8 is reducing and electrifying vehicle miles traveled, and section 9 is an analysis oftransportation fuels and their lifecycle. The following sections are an analysis of external costs and benefits: section 10analyzes the health impacts of decarbonizing transportation, section 11 analyzes equity and environmental justice, andsection 12 analyzes workforce and labor impacts. Finally, future research needs are provided in section 13. The studyoverall finds that cost-effective pathways to carbon-neutral transportation in California exist, but that they will requiresignificant acceleration in a wide variety of policies.

research report

Modeling and Analyzing Cost Overruns, Delays, and Cancellations in Senate Bill 1 Projects

Abstract

In 2017, California passed Senate Bill 1 (SB1) to bolster transportation infrastructure funding. Using data primarily from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans)’s official SB1 progress reports, this report analyzes the severity of cost overruns, delays, and cancellations across SB1 Transportation Projects. Although events such as the COVID-19 pandemic likely caused some of these negative outcomes, the statistical models developed for this analysis show consistent patterns of overruns associated with fiscal periods, programs, and geographic locations. Results indicate that the common 20% contingency is generally insufficient, indicating the need for better risk estimation in project planning. Results also suggest amplifying data transparency on project performance and re-evaluating project selection criteria to avoid rewarding underestimation of project costs and duration and penalizing accurate estimation.

research report

Improving the Distribution of Densities in Southern California

Abstract

Many of the biggest transportation challenges in Southern California arise not due to its overall density but due to the lack of concentration of densities. While recent years have witnessed increasing efforts to expand public transit services and encourage compact development in transit areas, there is a dearth of research providing support for improving the distribution of densities in the region. This project adopts a simultaneous equation modeling (SEM) approach to reveal the complexity of parcel-level (residential) land use intensification dynamics in a five-county Southern California metropolitan region with emphasis on the importance of reciprocal interactions between current and planned land use changes and the critical role of public transit accessibility. Results suggest that residential densification and upzoning processes reinforce each other. Urban residential upzoning can significantly promote the probability of parcel-level residential densification, even though it does not always lead to an immediate market response in every location. More importantly, the residential density increases are found to induce further plan/zoning modifications in nearby areas, indicating the presence of feedback loops in this dynamic relationship. There is also evidence of the positive influence of public transit accessibility. Single-family residential land parcels with greater access to high-quality transit services show a higher level of densification and upzoning probabilities when all other conditions are held constant. Such positive effects are detected not only in existing high-quality transit areas but also in locations where public transit services will be available in the future.

Phd Dissertation

Zero Emission Shared-Use Autonomous Vehicles: A Deployment Construct and Associated Energy Grid and Environmental Impacts

Abstract

For decades, the leading cause of death for American youth has been the car accident, and the largest source of domestic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and many Criteria Air Pollutants (CAPs) has been the transportation sector. The advent of the autonomous vehicle in combination with Battery-Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) presents an opportunity to transcend both pernicious challenges. In particular, the evolution of safer and more efficient autonomous (i.e., robotic) driving behavior via vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication, increased use of electric vehicles, and greater access to affordable and convenient shared (i.e., pooled) rides portend societal benefits including a significant reduction in energy demand and associated pollution. This dissertation evaluates the impact of Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles (SAEVs, “Saves”) on the California energy grid, GHG emissions, and CAPs.

Vehicle-centric impacts (i.e., efficiency changes due to vehicle design and driving behavior) are measured using a vehicle design tool together with a microscopic traffic simulation model to (1) design prototype SAEVs, and (2) measure their energy efficiency for standard and eco-driving scenarios and an array of performance characteristics (e.g., different electric drivetrains, various communication protocols, etc.). Fleet-centric impacts (i.e., changes to vehicle allocation and usage) are measured using ArcGIS with a Caltrans travel demand model dataset to allocate and size SAEV stations, where SAEVs recharge/refuel and are sent to serve nearby trips in a hypothetical SAEV-deployment construct. The Holistic Energy Grid modelling tool (HiGRID) is used to measure SAEV impacts on the California electric grid and grid GHG and CAPs. The Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation Model (GREET) is used to measure corresponding transportation sector GHG and CAP impacts.

Vehicle-centric energy impacts from SAEV-enabled eco-driving and platooning averaged net efficiency improvements of approximately 6-18%. Fleet-centric impacts include VMT changes from -11% to +36%, largely depending on ridesharing. Depending on SAEV design and operation, over 375,000 metric tons of annual CO2-equivalent GHG emissions could be reduced by adopting the proposed SAEV-deployment construct in lieu of the projected conventionally-driven vehicle fleet. Corresponding CAP impacts include a net reduction of over 250 metric tons of annual NOx emissions.

policy brief

SB1 Project Performance: Cost Overruns, Schedule Delays, and Cancellations

Abstract

The Road Repair and Accountability Act of 2017 (Senate Bill 1 or SB 1) aims to improve and enhance California’s transportation infrastructure. Like many infrastructure programs, however, there are concerns with project cost overruns, delays, and cancellations, as these can undermine program goals and negatively impact quality of life in California.
This brief highlights key findings from an analysis of quarterly Caltrans SB 1 project reports between 2018 and 2023 to provide insights into project costs, delays, and cancellations.

policy brief

Navigating the Shift: Critical Insights of California Fleet Operators into Zero-Emission Technologies

Abstract

California is committed to transitioning heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) from diesel to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) like battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) by 2045, and in certain cases much sooner. Achieving this goal requires substantial efforts from various sectors, including vehicle manufacturers, infrastructure developers, and governments. It is particularly important to understand the perspectives of HDV fleet operators, as their viewpoints and willingness to adopt ZEVs will be critical to California’s success in this transition.
To better understand the perspective of fleet operators, we conducted in-depth interviews with 18 California HDV fleet operators, across various sectors and fleet sizes, on the viability of zero-emission fuels and vehicles over the next 10 to 20 years and the main motivators for, and barriers to, procuring ZEVs.

Phd Dissertation

Modeling and Planning for Future Multimodal Transportation with Household-owned Automated Vehicles

Abstract

Driverless (or fully-automated) vehicles (AVs) are expected to fundamentally change how individuals and households travel and how vehicles interact with roadway infrastructure. Privately-owned AVs (PAVs), when operated within households, offer travel options that distinguish them from conventional vehicles (CVs), such as remote parking, returning home to park, and serving other household members. These options—available through deadheading—can lead to an increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The goals of this dissertation are to (i) explore the expected travel patterns of PAVs, (ii) analyze their impacts on transportation system performance, and (iii) propose design and policy changes to mitigate the negative impacts of PAVs and leverage their benefits.In this context, this dissertation presents three models and corresponding case studies. First, I propose a parking assignment model to analyze the impact of PAV parking behavior on travel patterns and parking facility demand and performance. The case study finds that significant VMT increases occur due to PAVs traveling to remote parking locations after dropping off travelers at activity locations, and that balancing fees and capacities of parking spaces can reduce the extra VMT. Second, I introduce a new policy and infrastructure system aimed at reducing VMT that is similar to a park-and-ride (PNR) system. Instead of traditional fixed-route transit, my proposed system includes transfer stations where travelers can switch from their PAVs to on-demand, door-to-door shared-use AVs (SAVs) that enhance traveler convenience and service reliability. By optimizing transfer station locations, the case study demonstrates significant reductions in both VMT and vehicle hours traveled (VHT) within the region. Third, I extend the routing and scheduling of PAVs to the decision-making process within households. I introduce the Household Activity Pattern Problem with AV-enabled Intermodal Trips (HAPP-AV-IT) that incorporates SAV, public transit, and transit-based intermodal travel options. The case study results reveal that travelers are likely to choose long deadheading options, such as returning home, to optimize household vehicle operations. The model also demonstrates that intermodal trips can reduce both the household’s travel distance and overall travel costs. Although the precise performance of AVs on road networks remains uncertain, the findings of this dissertation suggest that additional VMT from PAV deadheading could negatively affect transportation systems. As we move closer to the era of widespread AV adoption, it becomes increasingly important for planners and researchers to develop policies and infrastructure systems that reduce PAV deadheading miles. The methodological advancements and practical insights presented in this dissertation provide a strong foundation for addressing these challenges and preparing for the transformative impact of AVs.